As I did last year, I'm going to do a run down of my picks for the division champs in 2011 before approaching the Wild Card discussion. But first let's take a look back at my predictions from last year. In the American League I chose the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels to take the divisions, while I had the Boston Red Sox finishing as the Wild Card winner. I got absolutely zero predictions right. Over in the National League I guessed that the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies would take their respective divisions and the Los Angeles Dodgers would take the Wild Card. I did a little bit better by getting one division correct. Geez, do I know anything about baseball?
The answer is yes, and that's why my predictions are going to be rock solid in 2011. Confidence breeds winners, or so I'm told, and I don't intend a repeat of my befuddled prognostications. Let's do a quick recap of my 2nd Annual Prediction Special, first. In the American League I have the Boston Red Sox winning the East, the Detroit Tigers taking the Central, and the Oakland Athletics as my surprise pick to rise atop the West. Over in the National League I have the Philadelphia Phillies owning the East again, the Cincinnati Reds renewing their ownership of the Central, and the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants defending a West crown. While I have all new teams winning in the American League, I'm staying with 2010's winners in the National League. This discussion is about the Wild Card though, so without further hesitation, let's get down to who will win that last spot for October baseball.
The AL is chock full of talented teams. Many will find it hard to believe that I didn't pick the Yankees or Texas Rangers to win their divisions, but that's how I roll. I'm unpredictable. As I see it though, there are are several teams to go along with the Yanks and Rangers who will fight for the Wild Card. I see the Minnesota Twins putting up a good fight. The White Sox will also be a major player late. A revitalized Los Angeles Angels team could return to form just in time to steal a spot in the post-season. Even the Tampa Bay Rays have a good shot to try and make the playoffs, although a repeat division win is highly unlikely. Do any of these teams have a strength over their opposition?
As I see it, both Texas and Chicago have enough offense to lay ruin to other teams. However, the hesitation lies in their pitching as Texas is without a dominant ace, and Chicago's rotation while good, doesn't match up with some of the more complete pitching teams in the league. Then there are the Yankees and Rays, who both seemingly have better pitching, although the Rays have a completely rebuild and questionable bullpen, and the Yankees are suspect in the rotation after Sabathia. Phil Hughes made a huge jump in innings, which institutes the dreaded Verducci-effect. Not sure what that is? In short it means don't double a man's pitch count from one year to the next. Meanwhile A.J. Burnett is trying to recover from a terrible year, and Freddy Garcia is the 4th guy.
Who takes the Wild Card after all is said and done? Well I have to go with experience, and no one has more experience than the New York Yankees. While I think Texas, Chicago, LA, Minnesota and Tampa all have good teams, New York has a titanic lineup, and if Alex Rodriguez returns to full health in 2011, he could have a monster year. I know they are getting a little long in the tooth, and this could be the year things start to slip away from the Yanks. However, I think they know how to win when it matters, and they will push past the other teams vying for the Wild Card.
Now over to the NL where I left the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, LA Dodgers and others without baseball to play in the fall. One of these teams is going to make it through, but which one? Atlanta has a fantastic rotation, a great bullpen, and added "His Name is" Dan Uggla in the off-season. The Cards may have lost ace Adam Wainwright, but they still have Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, and many other solid pieces. The Brewers are looking strong with a revitalized rotation, even if Zach Greinke will sit out for a spell with a rib injury.
In the West the Dodgers have a good rotation of their own, but there are questions whether Matt Kemp will progress or regress, and whether Andre Either is going to be sticking with the team for much longer. Not to mention Jonathan Broxton possibly losing the closer's role. The Rockies have a mashing offense led by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but the pitching past Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge Del La Rosa is sketchy. Even San Diego won 90 games last year, but with Adrian Gonzalez gone, and Mat Latos a little banged up, 90 games will be vastly difficult to reproduce.
Once the season starts and teams start beating on each other I think the favorite to win out will be the St. Louis Cardinals. They still have a legit ace in Carpenter. Also, Kyle McClellan has been absolutely stellar this spring, leading me to believe that he will at least be sufficient in picking up the slack of the Wainwright loss. All the other pieces are veterans who know how to win, and with Tony La Russa at the helm the Cardinals won't scuffle against losing teams the way they did last year. They will push past the Brewers in the Central and will just beat out the Braves for the NL Wild Card.
We are going to go even deeper into the prediction pit this year, though. I'm going to take a whack at predicting two major awards in 2011; the Cy Young and MVP winners. As I mentioned in my application to the MLB Dream Job, I have two somewhat unorthodox picks for the MVP award winners. I think that Joey Votto stands a good chance of repeating as Most Valuable Player because he uses all fields to his advantage, he plays in a bandbox park half the year, and he's a high-average hitter. Meanwhile Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce stand to have breakout years around him, meaning that Votto could collect 100 RBI simply by accident.
Over in the AL I have Adrian Gonzalez taking the MVP crown home, and I'll tell you why. The man has been a consistent 30-40 homerun presence while playing in one of the most expansive parks in the game. Not only that, but when he visited teams in his old division, he was still playing in Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park and Coors Field, all massive ball parks designed to keep balls in play. Now I know he's coming off of shoulder surgery, but with 81 games at Fenway, I can only imagine that A-Gone will rake 20-25 dingers at his new home field alone. Add on to that a non-stop lineup before and after him, and you are looking at an RBI machine.
While I have RBIs leading the way to MVP glory in 2011, I think wins will see a return to prominence for the Cy Young contenders. Some were irked by Felix Hernandez's Cy Young win while only having 13 wins. I don't see Felix achieving many more than 13 this year, nor his total dominance in every other category in 2011. So wins will be a premium again. Who stands a chance to collect a lot of wins? How about Jon Lester for one. He already won 19 games last year, and with an even more improved lineup behind him, he could top 20 wins by August. His command is impeccable, and his stuff is electric. Look for Lester to have a huge year up in Boston. Comparably, I think that Roy Halladay will collect a vaulted amount of wins in the East. The Phils are hurting with Chase Utley, Dominic Brown and Brad Lidge all injured. However, Halladay has proven time and again that all he needs to win is a run or two at his back, and he'll take care of the rest. 18-20 wins is extremely feasible for the Good Doctor in 2011, and with a low ERA and high K rate again, he will stand alone as the NL Cy Young winner.
I'm glad I got all this mind bending in before the start of the season. I hope you enjoyed reading another years' worth of me spouting things I think I know. Can you believe it, the 2011 Major League Baseball season is almost upon us! It's been a long winter, and we're still expected to get snow incredibly, but it's already summer in my head when I see hear those sweet, sweet words: "Play ball!"
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