Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Early Start

Wow, has it been 100 posts already? I know it might seem like it's taken forever to some of you, but I appreciate you sticking with me. What are true friends for! To celebrate my 100th blog post, we're going to analyze a few of the early off-season moves that have been made to date, and maybe, just maybe, we'll get into some good ol' fashion speculation too.

Let's start with one of the weirder things in baseball I've ever seen, and that is a manager essentially being traded. That's right, back in late September, before the World Series and the off-season, Ozzie Guillen asked the Chicago White Sox for a contract extension. That deal never worked out, and so Ozzie being the colorful character that he is, asked for a release of his current contract. He then immediately posted on his website that he would be taking over the Florida Marlins, even before current Marlins interim manager Jack McKeon had a chance to step down. Classy Ozzie. Essentially he was traded for two minor league players when Chicago asked for compensation, so that the always boisterous manager will now take over a Marlins team that has lots of slugging potential, and plenty of pitching, but who's shoddy defense and high expectations always seem to get the better of them. Perhaps a new stadium, along with a new manager will liven things up in Miami.

So who's going to take over in Chicago? Well if you guessed a former Chicago White Sox star player who's never managed a baseball game in his life, you'd be absolutely correct. Robin Ventura, one of the surest hands at third the game has ever seen, and clutch grand slam expert, is now going heading up the baseball strategies on the South Side of Chicago. This comes as a bit of a shock to many since the White Sox are not a team in transition, and could conceivably compete next year. A lot of pressure will rest on Ventura to adjust quickly to this new role, and keep the ship afloat. One thing is for certain, the normally calm Ventura will certainly be a big departure from the theatrical antics Chi-town was used to seeing.

But what is this, the other Chicago team is down a manager as well? All hell is breaking loose in Chicago folks! Not to fear, Theo Epstein is here. Indeed, the former General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, and the man who helped orchestrate the team that broke The Curse of the Bambino, will bring his magic wand to the ill-begotten Chicago Cubs. His first order of business was releasing coach Mike "Total Recall" Quade from his contract, and beginning the search for a new manager. Having successfully rescued Red Sox Nation from the edge of the bridge, Theo was knighted a wunderkind of the baseball business world, and claimed another championship for Boston four years later. With the situation in Boston, um, deteriorating, and with manager Terry Francona jumping ship, it looked like it was time for Epstein to move along as well. He chose the spot where losing is not just possible, it's probable, so theoretically he can do no wrong there since losing would not be a change from the norm. But if he does manage to change things in Chicago and bring home the first championship in over 100 years, sculptors would start on his Hall of Fame bust the very next day. Seriously though, if he could put together a team that won it all after so much ineptitude, and after having done the same thing for the Red Sox, he would go down in baseball history as possibly the greatest GM in history. Oh, and he's not even 40 yet.

There are some other teams finding new GMs this winter as well. The Twins have contracted Terry Ryan to return as an interim GM for 2012 and possibly beyond. Ryan, who was GM from 1994-2007, and has been involved with the organization for almost 30 years, will try to guide this team back to what they do best, finding cheap and productive talent. The big contracts of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have definitely changed things in Minnesota, but perhaps a old/new approach will bring success back to the Twin Cities. The Baltimore Orioles also named Dan Duquette as President of Baseball Operations. The former Boston GM helped lay some of the groundwork for the 2003 Champion Red Sox while he was there from 1994-2002. From a USAToday article, "It was Duquette who acquired Pedro Martinez, drafted the likes of Nomar Garciaparra, Kevin Youkilis and Hanley Ramirez, pulled Tim Wakefield from the scrap pile and effectively swindled Seattle out of Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in a trade that helped change the direction of the Red Sox organization." Duquette will hopefully bring those innovative changes to the gloomy atmosphere in one of baseball's most storied franchises.

The defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals have made quick order of their search for a new skipper, and have settled on former catcher Mike Matheny. Matheny, like Ventura has no managing experience to speak of, but Mike does have one step on Robin. Mike has spent the past two years as a special assistant to the organization, and therefore has a somewhat better understanding of the people involved in and around the game, which is crucial to being a good manager. Matheny seems like an energetic leader who's lack of experience won't keep him awake one minute of the day. Both he and Ventura have their work cut out for them, and each will certainly take a different approach to the job. Much luck to both men has they start their careers in the dugout.

Enough about the guys who don't play a position, though, let's talk some baseball moves! The Philadelphia Phillies have been busy already. First they reclaimed Jim Thome for a one-year deal that will see him do a little glove work at first, and a lot of batting off the bench. This is a good move purely for the fact that Thome was so beloved during his three years in Philly. Then news came out this weekend that the Phils made a huge splash in the free agent pool and locked up closer Jonathan Papelbon for 4 years, $50 million, which is more than any closing pitcher has ever received. Papelbon is a very good pitcher, and had a very good year after his rollercoaster 2010, but $50 million? Before you interject, I'm not second-guessing this move simply because it is the Phillies. I would have been reticent of this signing no matter the team. $12.25 million is a lot of dough to shell out every year for a dude who only ever pitches 65 innings a year. Papelbon can make this deal worth $13 million in 2016 with a performance-based vesting option as well. That $63 million better get a whole lot of saves.

Another big signing has occurred very recently, but this wasn't of the free agent variety. Instead it was an extension offered to Matt Kemp of the L.A. Dodgers for a reported $160 million over 8 years. Kemp had one of the best seasons of recent memory, and stands a very good chance of winning the MVP. The fact that the Dodgers missed the playoffs hurt his chances, but not his wallet. After batting .324, with a NL leading 39 homeruns, 115 runs and 126 RBI, not to mention 40 stolen bases which were tied for second best in the league, Kemp was a shoe-in for receiving a big extension package. I just didn't think it would be quite this big. I must say that this "monster season" was predicted back in March by our good friends over at Mikesciosciastragicillness.com in a lovely blog entitled "Matt Kemp is Going to Destroy Worlds." If you don't believe me, head over there after reading this. And if you don't know what Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness means, then I just feel sorry for you.

Anyway, the nearly 40-40 man will now receive $20 million a season for a very long time. The only concern with this move was where the Dodgers were getting the money. Frank McCourt agreed to sell the team due to his divorce and financial situation, so it was surprising that such a large contract would be tendered during these shenanigans. It goes to show just what a special player Kemp is, though, for an organization in ownership transition to want to hold onto such a valuable commodity. The Dodgers also made a few smaller moves by signing Mark Ellis for second-base, and Matt Treanor for catching duties. It seems like they may be trying to save up some money to lock up their other big name, Clayton Kershaw.

There was even a splashy trade made the other day as the San Francisco Giants sent pitcher Jonathan Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for Melky Cabrera. Sanchez, who is a strikeout machine, fell from his good graces of 2010 by having a very mediocre 2011 which is more characteristic of his overarching career. The lefty seems to lack both control and durability and the Giants had to make room for some of their younger prospects coming through the system. Melky Cabrera had the best year of his career with the Royals, and will hopefully be the Giants everyday centerfielder in 2012, although everyday consistency is not one of Melky's strengths.

Other moves included the Arizona Diamondbacks bringing back Aaron Hill, and Willie Bloomquist; the Pittsburgh Pirates signed catcher Rod Barajas; the San Diego Padres snatched Mark Kotsay, and the Minnesota Twins nabbed Jamey Carroll. So it seems as though some teams are getting an early start on the free agency period that we've come to know and love as the "hot stove." I hope it continues, because I hate waiting for rumors to boil over into stories in December and January. But then again, if everything happens too soon, I'll have nothing left to talk about throughout the winter! Oh wait, I still have to do movie reviews. Until next time.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Moneyball

No, this is not a review of the recent movie starring Brad Pitt for my baseball movie series The Great Debate. Series is a little generous since I only did one. I know, I'm working on it. Instead, I'd like to take a few minutes of your day to talk about the lack of success on the part of teams with high payrolls this year. It seems like a growing trend, and I want to examine it to see if it's just me, or if there really is something there.

Let us look no further than the St. Louis Cardinals. They won the World Series this year with a payroll that is not meek, at roughly $109 million dollars, but which is significantly lower than the money spent by some other clubs; like the New York Yankees ($207 million), Philadelphia Phillies ($166 million), Boston Red Sox ($163 million), New York Mets ($143 million), Los Angeles Angels ($142 million), Chicago Cubs ($134 million). Other teams who spent more than the Cardinals this year include the Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers. The other team in the World Series, the Texas Rangers, had an even lower payroll than the Cardinals, at $92 million, and many would say they were the favorites going into the matchup. What both of these teams were able to accomplish with less money is remarkable, when considering that the Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, White Sox, Twins and Mets didn't even make the playoffs, and that the Phillies and Yankees exited very early in October. But spending money doesn't guarantee a winning season. Injuries, malcontent, and a variety of other factors make teams win and falter. So we can't claim that spending lots of money on player contracts is a bad business move based on one year. Let's look at 2010 then as well.

In 2010, the highest paid team was again the Yankees ($206 million), which should comes as no surprise to anyone. Then there was the Red Sox ($163 million), Cubs ($147 million), the Phillies ($142 million), and Mets ($133 million). The team who won it all that year was the San Francisco Giants, who had a payroll of roughly $98 million, of which $32 million was taken up by Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand's contracts, two guys who contributions to that championship were minimal at best. So two years in a row, a team with a medium sized payroll has won the World Series. Ah, but Patrick, you are saying to yourself right now, aren't you forgetting that those same high spending Yankees won the World Series in 2009?!

No sports fans, I did not forget. It is true that the Yanks won the title in 2009 with a payroll of $201 million, a good $50 million above the next highest spending team, the Mets, who spent $149 million to miss the playoffs. But that is exactly where I think this new spending pattern is getting it's misinformation from. You see, the Yankees spend a lot of money every year. Obviously they can't win the championship every season, although lord knows they try their damnedest. The theory that has come out of places like New York over the past decade is that spending money doesn't matter, as long as it results in a title once in a while. The potential financial benefits from winning a championship once every few years would then outweigh the cost of funding a ridiculously expensive team every year. But that idea is flawed.

If you look at the money the Yankees spent from their last World Series in 2000, to their most recent one in 2009, they spent about $1,686,000,000 to win two championships. That is almost the same amount Forbes magazine valued the club at in March of this year. If you look at the St. Louis Cardinals as a comparison, they spent $571 million from 2006 to 2011, and also won two championships. That is even more than the $518 million the club was valued at in March, but it took the Cardinals 4 less years to reach the same amount of titles. The theory with spending lots of money on an eventual title also claims that you are building a brand with the spending, thus creating even more revenue when you do win it all. But look no further than the Yankees to see that this doesn't always work.

The Yankees have always spent money freely while the Steinbrenner family has owned them. But their greatest success and brand building under that ownership came in the 1990s, when an influx of young talent came up through the farm system, and smart free agents were brought in to bolster the roster. Since 1994, the Yankees have been outspent once, and between '94, and 2000, their payroll went up almost $66 million, well more than double the '94 payroll of $47 million. The problem with this was that the money being spent wasn't the primary reason they kept winning. They had a core of young Hall of Fame talent, the spending just made sure those guys had the surrounding staff. What this led to was higher and higher competition prices by other teams in order to keep up with a team that was hitting the jackpot with young talent. When that talent starting to show its age in the earliest parts of the 21st century, the maintenance cost of trying to keep the team competitive rose even higher, because the core young guys were getting old. Now the money was being spent trying to outspend other teams for the best possible players, which the Yankees often got. However, the end result wasn't the same.

The 2000 season was a landmark year for baseball for many reasons, but one of the most glaring facts was that it was the first time in history that a team spent over $100 million for a roster of players. That year the Yankees spent $113 million, and it was the last year of the effective dynasty the Yankees had over baseball. The very next year, three teams had payrolls of $100 million or more. In 2002, four teams. In 2011, there were 12 teams with payrolls of at least $100 million, and the Yankees in particular doubled that. See the pattern? Now there are other issues that played into this system of overspending, like inflation, and an economy that ran away with itself headlong into a brick wall in 2008. But there is a good portion of this type of overindulgence that wasn't necessary. A lot of commentators thought that the cost of player salaries would take a dive after the Great Recession, but contrary to that idea, players kept asking and owners kept paying.

Ever since Alex Rodriguez got paid $25 million a season in 2001 by the Texas Rangers, all hell broke loose. Salaries from 2001 on skyrocketed and contracts were forced to extend in length to meet the new needs of players, and to make these astronomical deals more affordable over a period of time. We are at the point now where one of the best pitchers in the game, C.C. Sabathia, actually opted out of his contract that was paying him $23 million a season, because he thought he could get more money. And he did! There was almost no other suitor that could possibly pay him what he was asking, essentially putting the Yankees in a bidding war with themselves, and they signed him the other day to an extension that gave him an extra year on his contract, and another $30 million over the course of the deal, making him now earn about $25 million until 2016. Do you see the ridiculous nature of the baseball business world right now?

This all goes back to my original point that the cost of putting together a team is actually outweighing the benefits of winning a championship. At the rate the Yankees, Red Sox, and other teams spend money now, they are forced to win a title every year, just to make ends meet. The problem is, they aren't winning. The Red Sox's last took home the Commissioner's Trophy in 2007, and since have raised their payroll by over $20 million. For their efforts, they have missed out on the playoffs for the past two years, ending this season in the greatest American League September collapse in history. The Phillies won it all in 2008, with a payroll of $98 million. Since, they have increased their payroll by $68 million dollars and have finished worse in the playoffs every year. This financial environment is forcing these smart teams to make dumb deals that sign guys to horrendous contracts that don't make any sense. Albert Pujols stands a good chance of earning $30 million a season for the rest of his career. Now, Albert might be one of the greatest hitters to ever put on a uniform, but when he is 40 years old, I can guarantee you he will not be putting up statistics worth $30 million a year. That is, unless, by that time guys are earning triple that. You see the inherent problem with this type of payroll inflation?

I know I've railed against big contracts many times before, but it's getting to the point where it is hurting the team. The Yankees were a good team this year, but they had some obvious flaws, and their top players are quickly showing signs of age. With a $200 million roster and holes to fill, the next few seasons could see this team's salary jump to $250 million and still not be much better. The Red Sox went out and spent a combined $296 million on Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford last year, and missed playing in October because of it. It doesn't make sense. Now these guys are great players, but if I can get another guy who will provide 60%-70% of their production for 10-20%% of the cost, guess what I'm doing.

This issue is extremely relevant because the upcoming free-agent class has some stupendous talent. You have Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Frank Francisco, San Francisco, Fransisco Goya, and anything else named Francisco you could possibly think of. Not to mention a huge list of very capable players that won't cost you an arm and a leg to sign. This off-season is going to be interesting because smart teams should start to notice that high priced talent isn't always the best bet. Moneyball has been somewhat effective for Billy Beane in Oakland, even though he's never won a championship. If teams start applying their vast dollars in the right places instead of showering big names with Benjamin Franklin, then the parity in the league may turn around very quickly. If they don't, look forward to a $300 million team in the next decade. And I'm just going to take a wild guess that the team name will start with a Y.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

High Note

It must be said, and I don't know anyone who can argue this point, that the 2011 World Series was one of the best in years. It had the drama of the Texas Rangers having never won a championship, mixed with the possibility of this being Albert Pujols last ride as a St. Louis Cardinal. Not to mention, the games themselves were outstanding, especially an epic Game 6 walk-off, extra-innings bout that left the viewer drained. There were bullpen moves aplenty, an historic night for King Albert, more memorable moments by Nelson Cruz and David Freese, and it culminated in the final game that encapsulated one hell of a season.

Now that the St. Louis Cardinals are officially the 2011 World Series Champions, everyone is looking towards 2012. Some players may take time off during the winter, but many are playing ball in other leagues around the world, staying in shape, and building up value that translates to mega dollars. The front office people especially, aren't taking a break, as this is the time where deals are made and franchises are reborn. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, this is one of my favorite times of the baseball year.

It is also a time to take stock, though. Some individuals look at past achievements and either want more, or decided that enough is enough. Retirement is a tough thing. Ideally it means you are never coming back, but there are lots of guys who realized later on that they missed the game and came back for one more ride. More often than not, this doesn't end well. However, I think that Anthony La Russa has really put some time into his decision when he came out on Monday and said he was retiring from the game of baseball, thus ending one of the best careers the game has ever seen.

I don't know if this comes as a shock to you or not, but it certainly did to me. Those who are close to Mr. La Russa noticed that this postseason was different for the stoic manager, as I've heard repeatedly that he seemed to stop and appreciate the surroundings of this epic game. He appeared lighter and happier than usual as he finished off the regular season in a flurry of resurgence, and finally winning the World Series when almost no one expected they would. According to baseball insiders, this lighthearted version of La Russa was due to the fact that he had informed the Cardinals front office in August that he was retiring after the 2011 campaign.

This adds dramatic undertones to the World Series that history will certainly overindulge in. I can see the slow-motion video now of La Russa running up the dugout steps as a deep voiced commentator tells the story of how La Russa knew this was it, as the game unfolded on the grass. That is of course, overblown, but that's how history likes to remember things. Regardless of how this postseason plays out in stories down the line, La Russa will always be remembered as one of the greatest men to ever manage the game of baseball.

In case you hadn't realized, Tony was a manager for 33 years. He started with the Chicago White Sox in 1978, and stayed there for 8 years. He then moved on to the Oakland Athletics, where he stayed until 1995, and won a World Series title in 1989. In 1996 he took over the St. Louis Cardinals and won two more championships, in 2006 and again this year. In doing so, Tony became only the second manager to win a World Series in both the American and National Leagues. The first was legendary manager Sparky Anderson. Oh, and did I mention that Tony also was voted Manager of the Year in 1983, 1988, 1992, and in 2002?

Over the course of the 33 years in which he was almost never out of work, La Russa collected 2728 wins, which is third all-time. Can you fathom that? Throughout the vast history of the game of baseball, Tony was able to win more games than almost every other manager the game as ever seen. Great managers like Casey Stengel, Tommy Lasorda, and Bobby Cox were not able to achieve the same success that La Russa did. La Russa won by being a smart guy in a very complex game. That's not to say those others managers weren't smart, but La Russa brought something new to the game. He micro-managed.

You can love this style or hate it, and sometimes I do both, but La Russa went over the game with a fine-tooth comb day in and day out. He analyzed the statistics and calculated the odds of right-lefty matchups almost to an irritating stage. He helped pioneer sabermetrics in a way by refining what it meant to manage the game. No position in the game reflexed this more than the way Tony managed his bullpens. Relievers have always been a finicky bunch, but Tony gave the bullpen roles and helped create the modern closer position. When guys had a specific role, the theory goes, they would be able to focus on one job, and thus be more effective. This was evident time and time again as Tony would constantly switch in one guy over another to give his team the slightest edge in winning a game or series. He did so in the past, and again this year, as he made more bullpen moves in this postseason than any manager before.

Tony was not lovable by any stretch of the imagination. He almost got into a fistfight on-field with Buck Showalter in 1992, he was arrested for drunk driving while asleep at a red light in Florida in 2007, and he has been depicted as a curmudgeon for most of his professional career. But smart people are often despised by the outside world, because they see things differently. I certainly can't see into Tony's psyche, but I honestly believe that for the most part, he didn't care what other people thought of him. As long as he could help his club win, that was his main concern, and that's what he did consistently. It's wonderful that such an important part of baseball history gets to end his career on the highest of notes. I wish the best of congratulations to Tony La Russa and the rest of the St. Louis Cardinals. Enjoy retirement Tony.

This now begs the question of what will St. Louis do for next season. And thus the off-season begins. Who will manage the club? Will Pujols be back? Will Adam Wainwright recover from his Tommy John surgery? Who else is coming back to the roster? It's not so frequent that a team that just won the World Series would have so many questions immediately following. If the Cards resign Albert, and perhaps get somebody like Terry Francona to replace La Russa, maybe this team won't miss a step. However, if Albert leaves, and a new manager doesn't do so well, the defending champs next year could have a terrible dropoff. Then again, almost no one predicted the Cardinals would win this year, so what do we all know about anything?

The point is, everything starts anew. The city of St. Louis can take some time to celebrate its 11th Championship, but in 29 other cities people are busy buying and selling, mixing and matching, and tried to come up with that perfect recipe that will deliver them a title next year. There is plenty of talent out there that will soon find a new uniform. The everlasting question is, how will it all pan out? I hope you get excited by this stuff as much as I do. If not, well then I guess I'll see you in April. Until then, let the rumor mill start.

Monday, October 24, 2011

The Pendulum Swing

I know, I know, it's been a while. I've been busy, so shoot me. NO, don't actually shoot me!! Whew, that was a close one. A pendulum, in case you don't know, is a time-keeping device created by Galileo Galilei in 1602. It bobs back and forth, keeping time by using gravity essentially. It's kind of technical how they work, and I don't want to get into it, because I don't quite understand it really. The point is that these baseball playoffs have sort of had a pendulum of their own. You can say that it was a huge swing of momentum that the St. Louis Cardinals even made it into the playoffs, and ever since, it seems as though every series, in both leagues, has had it's swings of momentum from either team.

This is especially true in the past two days. Going into Game 3 of the World Series, the Cardinals and Texas Rangers were tied one game a piece, and Game 3 was a pivotal matchup to see who would take the momentum. The Cardinals gave a resounding answer by clobbering the Rangers 16-7. Mostly responsible for this slaughter was perhaps the greatest offensive output in a World Series game, ever. That's right folks, Albert Pujols, the guy who was starting to lose his greatness this year, put on a display not seen before in over 100 years of baseball playoff history. Albert became just the third player ever, and the first non-Yankee to hit for three homeruns in one WS game. The first person was, of course, Babe Ruth, who accomplished the feat twice. He did it once in 1926, and again in 1928. The second man to do so was Reggie Jackson in 1977. After the summer where the Bronx burned, Reggie Jackson hit three homers in the final game of that year, and cemented his legacy as Mr. October. So how does Albert's performance on Saturday compare?

He did better than both of them, if you can believe it. Albert not only matched the two other gents in homers, but he drove in 6 RBI to go along with his dingers, and he had 14 total bases, as his 5-6 night had started off with two singles before history was made. Now, I'm not saying that Pujols blows Ruth or Jackson out of the water or anything, but it is pretty remarkable that he was able to have perhaps the greatest night ever with a bat, when it really matters. Truly great players step up when the time comes, and with his dynamic performance Albert suddenly and dramatically sent the pendulum swinging in the Cardinals favor.

That lasted less than 24 hours. For in baseball, you are only as good as the last game you played. Without question, the Cardinals are a great team that deserves to be where they are right now. However, when 25 year old Derek Holland and his cheesy mustache took the mound for the Rangers in Game 4, he made the Texas crowd forget all about the misery of the previous evening. Derek, who had been very erratic, and beaten up over his previous 2011 playoff outings, was something special on Sunday. He commanded his plus fastball on both sides of the play, often pushing the Cardinals big sluggers off the plate, and sliding in a change-up and stellar curve to further frustrate the Red Birds. When the Rangers hadn't had a starter go past 5 innings in what felt like a month and a half, Holland stepped up and delivered 8 and 1/3 solid innings in which he struck out 7, walked just two, and kept Pujols hitless the night after Al bettered the Babe. That is impressive, and certainly a big pendulum swing back toward the Rangers' side.

Now is Derek Holland a better player than Pujols? Of course not. Baseball is finicky, and glorifies those that step up in a crucial moment. Aaron Boone was a decent player, but he will be remembered forever for one homerun in 2003. Derek Holland has the stuff, and perhaps now the moxie to flourish into a great starting pitcher. He's already had success in the regular season, and now that he's dominated in a post-season start, there is no telling where his confidence can take him. Thanks to his efforts, the Rangers are very much in this heated race to the top.

I know this World Series is probably not getting a lot of ratings, and that's a shame, because it looks like it could be the first WS to go to 7 games in the last 9 years. The Cardinals and Rangers are both extraordinary offensive teams. Mike Napoli is hitting eighth in the Texas lineup, and he hit .320 with 30 homeruns and a .631 slugging percentage in the regular season for crying out loud. And his post-season has been great too. I mean, did you see that bomb he hit last night?? Because these teams don't have the same East Coast flash as some others, the ratings and the sport will suffer slightly. That's alright. The fair weather fans who only stay to root for one team, and then split when they're out are missing one hell of a series, maybe even one of the best ever.

I must apologize again, as this summer as been dreadful for me writing in a timely fashion. Once more I must thank you for begin patient, and for sticking around to read this blog. I intend to be a little more regular with the updates, and I already have my next post in mind. So fear not sports fans, I'll be here to soothe your tears once the season is over. Until then, let's enjoy some more fantastic baseball.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Off to the Races

After having appeared on the Andy $am$ 30 & 30 in 30 show for 91.3 WTSR last night, I've been antsy to discuss the Wild Card Races. It's been another few weeks since I've posted, so again I've missed a lot of baseball action. However, it appears as though the real excitement just began recently as the Wild Card spots were thought all but determined a few weeks ago. Not so anymore, as the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have lost their stranglehold on the final playoff golden ticket. Who is making a play for entrance into October baseball? Read on, and we shall see.

Let's start in the American League, where the Boston Red Sox have been absolutely abysmal of late. In the month of September the Sawks have gone 5-14, and have sputtered to only a 2 game lead in the Wild Card over the Tampa Bay Rays. The reason that gap closed so quickly was due to the Rays taking two of three from the Sox in the weekend series, forcing Boston to light a fire under their collective butts in order to make it to October. That light came yesterday in the second game of a double-header versus the Baltimore Orioles, when they outscored the O's 18-9. While that seems like a good sign, the offensive output was necessary in order to get pitcher John Lackey out of yet another terrible start, of which he's had many this year. With Lackey being effectively ineffective, the Red Sox are relying on Josh Beckett and Jon Lester to carry the rotation. Erik Bedard has been serviceable, and Tim Wakefield has been losing his knuckleball all season, so if for any reason Lester and Becket can't get it done, look for New England natives to bemoan a season that should-have-been.

The team directly in the rear-view mirror is the division rival Rays. They've gone 11-6 during September and before taking two of three from the Red Sox this past weekend, they swept Beantown at home the weekend before. The key to the Rays success is again good pitching. All five starters have at least 10 wins and only Wade Davis has an ERA north of four. Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta have been the real workhorses of the bullpen, but it's been enough to put the Rays in contention. The offense, amazingly has been able to compete even while lacking for a star hitter to carry everyone else. For sure Evan Longoria is a stellar player, but he was hurt early on, and his production has been hindered since. A .244 average is well below what he is capable of. However, Johnny Damon has provided a spark at times; Ben Zobrist has been driving in a ton of runs; B.J. Upton, for his terrible average, still knows how to hit homers and steal bases, and Casey Kotchman and Matt Joyce have produced as well. Most importantly, the team is playing well when it really counts, in late September.

The other team making a run at not only the Wild Card, but a Division Championship is the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos owe a lot of this season to rookie Mark Trumbo who leads the team in homeruns, RBI, and slugging percentage. Without Trumbo taking over for the injured Kendrys Morales this season, the Angels would have been floating up to Heaven a long time ago. As the offense has held on, the pitching staff is what really makes this team go, as Jered Weaver is having a Cy Young caliber season, Dan Haren has been fantastic as well, and even Ervin Santana, despite the win-loss record, has been very solid for the Angels this year. The hopes of a post-season rely heavily on these three pitchers, and other offensive players besides Trumbo need to step up. Torii Hunter has been good, and the infield has been contributors, but unless this team starts clicking on all cylinders soon, the post-season may just be out of reach.

Meanwhile, over in the National League, the Atlanta Braves have been falling apart, quite literally. Tommy Hanson hasn't pitched since early August, Jair Jurrjens since late August, Tim Hudson was on a bad streak until he ran into the Mets who gave him a tremendous start, Derek Lowe has given up 15 runs in his last three starts, and Brandon Beachy has pitched more than 6 innings only once in the past two months, making the bullpen work even harder to finish off games. The bullpen, for their part, has been extraordinary. However, the workload is starting to accumulate, and in the past few games Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters have been giving up homeruns like they were lottery tickets. Perhaps it's because those two, plus Eric O'Flaherty have pitched a collective 230.2 innings. That is a tremendous amount for three relievers to pitch, especially young guys who aren't exactly used to that sort of workload. This has been necessary because the Braves have played many close games due to a anemic lineup. The Braves have the 12th worst team average in the NL, 12th worst OBP, and are 5th in strikeouts. Dan Uggla caught fire late, and Freddie Freeman has had a very good rookie campaign, but if not for Chipper Jones staying healthy, I don't know if the Braves would be where they are now.

Where the Braves are, is on the hot seat, because here comes the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have been listed as clinically dead multiple times this season. First when Adam Wainwright was lost during Spring Training, then when Albert Pujols was sputtering in the early part of the season, and then finally when Milwaukee ran away with the Central a few weeks back. The Cardinals have kept plugging away, though, and now sit only 2.5 games back of the Braves. Thanks in large part to the offensive output of Lance Berkman early in the season, the Cardinals have managed to remain competitive even when all aspects of the team weren't clicking. Now that Pujols has returned to normal, Matt Holliday and Berkman are still hitting the ball around the park, and Jon Jay has taken over centerfield from the now-gone Colby Rasmus, the lineup is humming along quite nicely. The addition of Edwin Jackson has helped that rotation, and while it doesn't match up with the division leading teams heading to the playoffs, it's very serviceable, and could surprise folks.

Don't forget about the defending World Series Champions, the San Francisco Giants. They have won 8 straight games and sit just 1 game back from the Cardinals in the Wild Card hunt. Their offense has been atrocious this season, but with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ryan Vogelsong leading the rotation, anything is possible. With Barry Zito being oft hurt this season, and now Jonathan Sanchez being out, the emergence of Bumgarner and Vogelsong has been crucial. Over in the dugout, not much has been going right. Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval has comeback to have a great 2011, and is leading the team is just about every offensive category, which is remarkable seeing as how he missed some time with a wrist injury. The loss of Buster Posey this season was huge, and the lineup has struggled mightily to overcome his loss. Carlos Beltran came in and has provided some help, but one man cannot make a team go. The Giants seemed to win by miracles last year as guys came out of the woodwork to win games at the last minute. This year is different. If the rotation can carry the hitters for just a little while longer, than anything can happen in the playoffs. Getting there will still be a struggle, though.

So who is going to make it in the end? I have no idea. If I had to wager a guess, I would say the Red Sox and Cardinals would make it in. They look as though they have the depth enough to make it in. But you never can tell with so few games left. Every pitch counts, and one blooper here, or one error there can make or break a season. It looked as though the playoff run was going to be a snooze-fest, but it has turned into something excited to watch. I hope you're as interested as I am.

I would be extremely remiss if I did not mention the incredible feat that was accomplished by Mr. Mariano Rivera yesterday versus the Minnesota Twins. As he had done 601 times before, The Sandman came into the game in the ninth inning and gave his team an exceptional performance. He worked a clean inning with no hits or walks allowed, as he has done for a large part of his career 1209 regular season innings. He collected his record-breaking 602 save with a big grin and humble enthusiasm. His teammates surrounded him, and then pushed him onto the mound for the standing ovation he well deserved.

Mariano is without a doubt the greatest closer the game has ever seen. Since 1996 when he became a relief pitcher, Mo has had an ERA above three just once. His career 2.22 ERA is simply incredible, especially for being age 41 and still throwing enough heat on that famous cutter of his to break guys bats, as he did again on Monday night. What sets Mariano apart from his competitors is not so much the phenomenal regular season stats, as it is his post-season numbers. Mo has played in a ridiculous 31 playoffs series in his career, and is an outstanding 8-1 with 42 saves and a 0.71 ERA. Over the course of his October career, he has struck out 109 hitters and walked just 25. He is the epitome of calm, cool and collected, and has closed out more playoff series wins than any other pitcher in history. Whether in the regular season, or with the World Series on the line, Mo knows how to get it done. I can't say enough about Mariano, as he is one of those players that defies the logic of time and pressure. He is the "beast under your bed. In your closet, in your head." He is, in short, the greatest.

Monday, September 5, 2011

September Call-Outs

Usually September is a time to look forward. The playoffs are in sight, and many young players get a shot at glory during this month. But seeing as how I've been a little negligent in recent weeks and month, I would like to take this time to do some analysis of the earlier part of the year. In particular, those who signed big contracts in the off-season, only to barely show up for the 2011 campaign. The prime suspects: Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford.

Before I begin my tirade, though, I'd like to point out an egregious error I made in my last post. The error was not a statistical one, but one of omission. I failed to mention how the New York Yankees broke a Major League Baseball record by hitting three grand slams in one game versus the Oakland Athletics. The Yanks were at one point down 7-1 on August 25th, when 2B Robinson Cano took things into his own hands, and smacked a grand salami in the 6th inning to cut the lead to 7-6. Russell Martin then hit his second homer of the day, this time with the bases juiced, and made the game 10-7 in the Yankees' favor. Then all hell broke loose, and the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name, driving in 12 more runs over the next two innings, including another slam by Curtis Granderson, which at the time was his MLB-leading 38th homer. That win, and the outstanding record-breaking offense, helped catapult the Yanks into a tremendous run that saw them take two of three from the Red Sox, put them on a current four-game winning streak, and gave them the American League East division lead. That is some offense!

Back to my original post idea. Let's start with Mr. Carl Crawford, of the aforementioned Red Sox. In the off-season Crawford was coveted above all other free-agents. He had just come off a fantastic offense year which saw him win his first Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove awards. He was commanding contracts talks anywhere from $100 million and up when the Red Sox finally signed him to a staggering 7-years, $142 million, making him the second-highest paid outfielder ever. What has Boston received in return for this investment? Not much, honestly.

Carl hit a grand slam on Saturday versus the Texas Rangers, but these productive outbursts are more mirage than oasis. Previous to 2011, Carl Crawford had been placed on the Disabled List once, in 2008. 2011 comes along, and he's been on the DL, what, 75 times already? At least that's what it seems like. He was on there once this year, and I think he was put on twice more as precaution. An understandable move by Boston seeing as how they have put too much money into this guy to see him sit on the bench for a good part of the year. Crawford riding the bench as been almost more productive at times, though. He's hitting a meager .252 with 11 dingers, 17 stolen bags, and 52 RBI. The smaller home park is accountable for some of Crawford's increased power, but the stolen bases is a huge dropoff from his normal speedy game. Let's cut Carl a break and say that drop is due to his injuries and that next year he'll return to normal. What isn't normal, and hasn't looked that way for some time, is Crawford's comfort level at the plate.

Early on in the season, Crawford look absolutely lost at the plate. Maybe it was nerves, or the money that got him flustered, but it stuck with him for a long time, and he's only broken out of it in fits and spurts. His on-base percentage is a terrible .286, which is well below his career aver of .333. He's only walked 19 times this season, which is a number bench players usually see on their stat sheets. Perhaps most unproductive of all, he doesn't have a distinct role on the team. He was supposed to the speedy guy atop the lineup with Jacoby Ellsbury, but instead he's batted pretty much 1-9, and hasn't felt home anywhere. He's a man lost in a forgettable year right now. I doubt this will continue throughout his contract, but Boston fans have great memories. If Crawford struggles early on next year, 2012 may feel eerily similar to 2011.

Our next call-out is the third-highest paid outfielder of all time, Jayson Werth. Werth had a wonderful career in Philadelphia. He found a home hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard, and was a huge fan favorite out in right field. He was on top of the world. Then he became a free-agent, was purchased by the Washington Nationals for a ridiculous 7-years, $126 million, and has struggled mightily ever since. The reason, of course, is because when he was with Philly, Jayson was a cog in the well-oiled Phillies machine. He was not a star player, but a terrific asset to the team's overall construction. When he traveled just over 100 miles south to Washington, he took on a new role. He was still not the solo star player, because Ryan Zimmerman has that nailed down there, but he was expected not only to bring the same production he had with Philly over, but to compensate for the loss of Adam Dunn, who was a perennial 38-40 homerun hitter. Try as Jayson might, this was impossible from the get go.

This is not entirely Jayson's fault. First, he was given more money then he was reasonably worth as a player, but who in his right mind is going to say no to more money? Then Ryan Zimmerman goes down very early in the year, leaving Werth to act as the star player for about two months, which he wasn't up for. Add in the nerves of joining a new team, and a fanbase looking for a spark of any kind from an inferior team, and the recipe for success was tainted from the start. Jayson has stayed healthy, and he's tried to contribute as best he can. His homeruns are down, so he's been stealing bases more. He's not seeing good pitches because for the most part there isn't much protection around him in the Nationals lineup, so he's swinging at much more and therefore his strikeouts are up. His walks and RBI are down too, as a result. This may sound like I'm taking it easier on Werth than I am Crawford, but Werth has had significantly less to work with. Again, perhaps next year will be different. Hopefully Stephen Strasburg will come back healthy. Zimmerman should come back to full health and make up for a underwhelming season. And perhaps Bryce Harper may even be up by then, and provide another pressure valve for Werth. I don't see Jayson duplicating his numbers in Philly any time in the immediate future, but Washington is a team that is on the rise. Jayson may have gotten in the elevator while it was still in the basement, but he just might ride it all the way to the top.

The man Jayson effectively, or rather ineffectively replaced in Washington, has been the most dreadful of all the players mentioned. Adam Dunn is having one of the worst statistical seasons....ever. It's actually mind-boggling how bad he has been, and yet still receives playing time. It goes to show how monetarily invested team's get in a player, when he is consistently hitting well below .200, and yet still plays. That has been changing of late as Adam has been losing time and at-bats. While primarily he is the designated hitter, the Chicago White Sox have put Adam at first to try and see if time in the field will get his groove back like Stella. It hasn't. Instead, Adam has just made it apparent that there is very little anyone can do to get him out of this terrible funk.

For those of you who haven't seen, let's run by the stats real quick. In 2011 Dunn numbers look like this: .163 average (which is over 80 points lower than his already terrible career average of .244), 11 homeruns (he usually hits about 38), and 40...40!!! RBI (season average is closer to 95). Most telling of all is his slugging percentage of .288, which is almost half of his 162 game average of .505. Meaning that he is not driving in runners because he hasn't been hitting extra bases. These numbers are in all actuality, embarrassing, and Dunn knows it. He's said several times that he's ashamed of his performance and that he's trying everything he can think of to get out of this funk. It's more than likely too late for this season, but my hope is that 2012 will be a turnaround for Adam, as he's too established and productive a player to free-fall into oblivion like this.

I don't relish the fact that these guys are struggling. All players go through this once in a while, but it's amazing how each one of these guys switched teams, signed a huge contract in the off-season and now are not the same productive player they have been. The money certainly has something to do with it. If you are financially secure, there has to be some small part of a player that knows the internal push to get better and succeed is reduced. Then there is the pressure of starting a new life somewhere. Most players move to their new city, have to enroll their kids in new schools, or have to deal with being apart from their families if they go to the new town alone. Off-the-field issues are sometimes harder to deal with then just not hitting well. Then there are the fans. Rabid fans like the ones in Boston or other old-school baseball towns can sometimes go a little nuts. If a new guys comes in and isn't performing well, they only get a certain amount of leeway before the boo birds show up. All of this, plus injuries and new coaches, and new teammates make it tough for big name players to transition.

Let's hold back the tears, however. These guys get pay millions upon millions to deal with these issues, and when they don't perform up to capability, then perhaps the fans have a right to boo. After all, it's the fans money that keeps a team going. It's all a very complicated matter that goes much deeper than just "He sucks." We all use that excuse, but in truth, if a guy sucks, there is probably a lot more to it than that. Sorry that I had to call you out Crawford, Werth and Dunn. It's not personal, it's just that, well, you guys suck right now.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

August Rush

I have never seen this movie, but I did some checking and August not only is the eighth month of the Georgian calendar year named after Roman Emperor Augustus, but it also refers to something grand, or majesty. So as I am majestically rushing to get a post in at the end of August, I felt the title made some sense. The reason I am rushing is because this month, like the rest of this summer, has been immensely busy for me. Apart from work and theater, there was a funeral that required attending, an earthquake that hit Virginia and shook apparently everyone on the east coast except me, a brother that needed moving, and the latest and greatest, Hurricane Irene, which saw to it to send me and my fiancée packing for one evening. It's been hectic.

While I'm sharing things, I want to be quite honest with you, my faithful readership. I barely know what's going on in the baseball world right now. Not only don't I have time to check into things, but without cable, it's even harder to catch little tidbits here and there to reference. So please be prepared. This post will be quick and probably without much point as I try to sum up not only for you, but for myself, what the heck is going on in baseball right now. So sit back and relax.

Holy crap, here comes the Milwaukee Brewers. They have won 21 of 26 games in August so far, and have been 32-11 since the All Star Break, making them the hottest team in the game. Led by MVP candidates Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the outstanding rotation of Yovanni Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Zach Greinke, and Randy Wolf, and John Axford closing games at a league-leading pace, this team has been almost unbeatable. The team is second in the NL in team average, fourth in homeruns, and fifth in on-base-percentage. Their pitching has been holding the team up like never before, and with the offense putting up numbers the way they can, this team is looking like a serious contender for the National League Championship.

Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs fired GM Jim Hendry because, well... he kind of sucked of late. After nine off-and-on successful years, the Chicago Cubs decided that it was time to take a different course. The reason? Hendry had been responsible for some of the most disastrous deals in recent baseball history. Still with the team are Alfonso Soriano's roughly $60 million until 2014, the now retired? Carlos Zambrano's $22 million until next year, and they are still paying Kosuke Fukudome's contract even though he's with the Indians. For a full list of Hendry's moves, check out MLBTradeRumors.com's handy-dandy Transaction Tracker. The Cubs may have gotten rid of the ship's captain, but they still need to steer it out of icy waters, which make take a year or two of frugal baseball management.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing everyone in the league that they are no joke. They have hit the third most homeruns in the NL and driven in the fifth most runs. But they have always been a good run-producing team. The real difference this year is that the young pitching staff is holding their own against the competition. Led by Ian Kennedy's huge breakout year of 17-4, with a 3.03 ERA, the staff is showing people that there is more to this snake's bite than just the bat. I'm not sure if that made sense or not. Anyway, the young Daniel Hudson, who came over from the White Sox late last year, has been proving a young stud in the making as well. Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders haven't been getting the same victory totals, but they've been keeping their ERA's low, and not walking too many, which is a recipe for continued success. The real question is, will the Diamondbacks be able to hold off the San Francisco Giants who keep surging and stumbling due to their erratic offense. As there is no other serious competition in that division besides the Giants, the D'Backs could very well take the West this year.

Justin Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball this year, and finally is getting some of the respect he deserves. It's always been Sabathia and Beckett and others getting the American League pitching pomp and circumstance. Now though, Verlander is leading not only the AL, but both leagues in almost every pitching category. He's first in wins (20), first in innings pitched (215.2), first in strikeouts (218), first in opponent batting average (.190), and first in WHIP (.90), but he's only third in ERA (2.38), so I guess he sucks. With 20 wins already, and the whole month of September to go, he could collect another 4 or 5, depending on how close the race is for the AL Central. The Tigers should be wary not to push him too hard, though. While Verlander has been a workhorse his whole career, if he goes down, so do the Tigers chances of having any post-season success. In the meantime though, Verlander should be getting his trophy polish ready, because I think I see a Cy Young coming his way.

There has been some other big news around the league. Jose Tabata and Jered Weaver both received contract extensions recently. Tabata's extension is for 6 years, with option years in 2017, 2018, and 2019. If the extension is played out in its entirety, Tabata will receive $37.25 million. This seems a very team-friendly contract as Jose won't make anything north of $9 million for any season of the extension. Tabata is a skilled centerfielder with very good speed. He's only 23 so his power numbers will go up, but it appears he will be a solid lead-off or number 2 hitter in the lineup for years to come. It's nice to see the Pirates signing their young talent to stay. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, the Angels signed Jered Weaver to a five-year, $85 million extension. "The deal includes a full no-trade clause", according to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, and various "significant" bonuses for winning the Cy Young and MVP awards and for earning All-Star berths, writes Scott Miller of CBSSports.com. Weaver is having the best season of his career as he has the second best ERA of any starting pitcher, and could easily eclipse his career win total of 16 in a season this year. Congrats to both players.

This post wouldn't be complete, however, without mentioning one of my favorite players accomplishing a tremendous feat. The 40-year-old Thome became the eighth player in baseball history to reach 600 homeruns, hitting two in one game against the Detroit Tigers. It's true that Thome isn't the player he once was, but he's been a productive asset to the Twins over the past two years. Soon after hitting his 600th though, Thome was asked to become a productive part of his former club, the Cleveland Indians, as the Twins traded him through waivers. With Travis Hafner out again, Thome will be the regular DH for the rest of the season as the Tribe tries to fight back against the White Sox and Tigers atop the AL Central.

But let's get back to Big Jim for a second. The Illinois native is one of the most dominant power hitters ever to play the game. His 1665 RBI are 27th best All Time, and his 1715 walks are 8th best All Time. The ferocity with which he hits homeruns is so palpable, that seeing him hit is like watching fireworks go off. His days as an Indian during the mid to late 90's, when he, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez were all knocking the stuffing out of baseballs, must have been a thing of beauty to see in person. His electric and amicable personality always made me root for him, even when he was with the Phillies. While he might play for a little bit longer still, many think this might be his last year. It's a wonderful way to go out, if he does. Hitting 600 homeruns is an accomplish only 7 living people in the whole world can say they've done. I can't think of a finer person to be a part of those ranks. Congratulations Jim.

Thanks again to my readership for putting up with my delays and for continuing to bug me about writing another post. I started out doing this for myself, but I quickly learned that I was writing this for you all. Thanks for being a part of this little baseball-minded universe I've created here. Your support, feedback and comments are always appreciated. Until next time, whenever the hell that is!