Sunday, February 28, 2010

Prediction Special - Part 2 of 6

You've waited in blistering anticipation long enough. Here now is the second installment of the First Annual Prediction Special. Today we'll be discussing...wait for it, the National League West. Foooooled yooou. I bet you thought I was going to cover the whole American League first and then move on to the NL. Well, I decided I wasn't going to do that about five seconds before I began writing. And why should we do things the old, boring way? We're not. So let's talk some baseball.
Who will win the National League West this year, you ask? Well, pick a name out of a hat. You have about as much chance of getting it right as I will. This is due in large part to the utter lack of any dominating team in the NL West. Last year the Los Angeles Dodgers had the third best record in baseball, but lost in the League Championship Series to the Philadelphia Phillies. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies took the Wild Card. In 2008 the Dodgers also won the division, but only by being the least terrible team. To show you how bad the NL West teams played in '08, the Dodgers won with a measly 84-78 record, which was by far the worst winning-percentage of any division leader. But back in 2007 the Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks ruled, with both teams winning 90 games. The Dodgers? They finished fourth. The Rockies ended up going to the World Series that year. Who won the year before? The Padres. And the Rockies, they finished last.
There has been so much jostling around in this division over the past few years, you would think they were playing musical chairs at some steroid-induced Sweet 16 party. And the reason for all this commotion is somewhat complicated. The Dodgers for instance began getting good because of some quality pitching by Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, just as young, talented hitters like Andre Either and Matt Kemp started arriving on the scene. But now those pitchers are gone, and younger, less experienced hurlers like Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw are being asked to fill their places, and guide this team to victory. That is a tall order.
The Diamondbacks were great a couple of years ago, but were without ace Brandon Webb last year, and they will welcome him back with huge open arms this year. But besides a sidelined starting pitcher, they have had problems getting consistent production out of some of their younger fielders. Meanwhile Eric Brynes turned out to be a fairly disasterous signing for the team, and they haven't done much this off-season to remedy having too few bats. Can Arizona recapture the glory of 2007? Are Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton enough offense to make this team competitive for a full season? Two questions in a row isn't a good sign.
The Rockies seemed to always be in the mix because they had great hitters like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and now Troy Tulowitzki. But Holliday left last year, and Atkins appears to have been a mirage, plus he's gone to Baltimore. Meanwhile Helton isn't getting any younger. But the Rockies do have Jeff Francis coming back, and he'll help take pressure off of young ace Ubaldo Jimenez. Will some of the younger hitting keep pace?
The Giants, meanwhile, have not kept pace with the others teams. The arrival of "The Freak" Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain has solidified the pitching side of things, but reliable veteran hitting has remained elusive. Youngsters Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are out to prove that might be changing, however. Not to mention there might be another potential ace coming soon in Madison Bumgarner. Can San Francisco make the leap to the leader board this season, or are their star players still too young to control the division?
The San Diego Padres have been in a decline for the past few years, and they are in no position to compete right now for several reasons. Prospective players of a few years ago like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley haven't been setting the world on fire with their play. They lost ace Jake Peavy last year in a trade with the White Sox. Current ace Chris Young can never stay healthy enough to be the pitcher he should be. And the one true baseball star player on the team is first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez, but it is almost a guarantee that he will be traded in the next season or two in order to bring prospects back into the organization. None of these signs point to a stellar year in 2010.
With all that chaos, who can guess which team will put it all together this year. The Dodgers are probably the favorite in most peoples' minds because they've been to the League Championship for the past two years. But you can't count out the Rockies, who keep making great comeback runs in the latter part of the season. San Francisco may well just have enough to take the division, but not much beyond that. If Arizona rebounds from a very forgettable season, they have the reasonable potential to win 85 games. "You see what I have to work with, here?" This is a tough call, maybe the toughest in baseball. You have four out of five teams that can legitimately say this is their year. But I have to pick one. So what will I pick? Young pitching? Veteran, clutch hitting? Manny-Wood domination? Well, it is with some trepidation that I say, my choice to win the National League West in 2010 is...The Colorado Rockies.
I think they have enough pitching with Francis, Jimenez and Aaron Cook to hold down other teams in their division. The bullpen anchored by Huston Street and Manuel Corpas can close out games successfully. Helton and Tulo will help lead young hitters Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart to prominence. And the recent history of the Rockies making incredible comeback runs just goes to show the perseverance that makes good teams great. This is the year the Rockies start strong, stay strong, and finish strong. They will take the NL West division title, and maybe even a World Series appearance? Who knows. "You never can tell." Now if you know what movie that quote is from, you'll be my friend forever.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Prediction Special - Part 1 of 6

Another productive off-season has come and gone, and starting Tuesday we'll get to see some baseball being played. True, it's just pre-season baseball, but in my mind at least, it marks the beginning of the season. So the logical question you're probably asking yourself is, who are the favorites to win their divisions? Well thankfully for you, I write this blog. Here now is the first of my six-part Major League Baseball Prediction Special.
Let's get one of the more obvious choices out of the way first. The American League East will once again be decided by either the Yankees or the Red Sox. Tampa Bay will play a factor because of some dynamic young pitching, both in the majors and coming up through the minor leagues, as well as some great young talent on the field. If certain things work out well for the Rays, like the progression of some of the younger pitchers, B.J. Upton having a return to prominence, and Ben Zobrist having a good to great year at second base, then Tampa could stand a chance to compete for the Wild Card playoff spot. Carl Crawford is in a contract year as well, so having him play his tail off won't hurt. But the Yankees and Red Sox just have too many potential weapons, and the likelihood that Tampa Bay has enough sustainability to stay close or pass the other two at the end of the season is remote. Don't get me wrong, I like Tampa Bay a lot. In fact, I think they have one of the best front-offices in baseball. It just looks like New York and Boston have spent their way into the playoffs yet again.
Now I don't think all of Boston's off-season moves were completely wonderful, mind you. Marco Scutaro is a little overrated, by myself included, but should be productive as maybe a seventh or eighth hitter. Mike Cameron could be a valuable pickup, but he will not supply the same production that Jason Bay did. Also, John Lackey has never pitched particularly well in Fenway, but maybe he can find a way to turn that around. Overall, I think the Red Sox had a better team last year than the one they will put on the field in 2010.
The Yankees decided to take it easy this past off-season, and basically are sticking with the same team that won them the World Series last year, and who can blame them. They made a big trade in acquiring Curtis Granderson from the Detroit Tigers, but many baseball analysts are wary of his potential impact on the team. Most people expected the Yanks to resign Johnny Damon, but I guess they wanted a more youthful outfield. In the same vein they let Hideki Matsui, who I guess they thought his best years were behind him, go to the Angels and instead signed Nick Johnson as the new designated hitter. And these moves might work out. Granderson might see a better average in addition to possibly benefiting from Yankee Stadiums' air streams. And Nick Johnson is a fantastic on-base hitter. But ultimately the success of the Yankees will come down to Jeter, Rodriguez, Texiera, and the starting pitching. Whether Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain switch places or not, the Yankees have a fairly strong starting five. The bullpen has Mariano Rivera, so you need not say more about it. And few teams can match the power that the Yankees' lineup can put up. It's unfair, it's boring, and I hate it, but ultimately, barring a rash of injuries, which is possible with this aging team, I have to say that the favorite to win the American League East is the New York Yankees. So there it is folks, I know you knew it already, but now it's official. On this blog, anyway.
Now I realized I haven't talked about the Baltimore Orioles or the Toronto Blue Jays, but honestly neither team is going to compete for the division title this year. Baltimore is very intriguing because of all their young hitting talent, and Toronto has some fantastic pitching coming up in the next few years. But unfortunately both teams will have losing seasons this year, and even when they eventually become competitive, they will have to compete with Steinbrenner's wallet.
Here's a fun fact I didn't know. In 1901 and 1902 the New York Yankees played as the Baltimore Orioles. Also in 1901, the current Baltimore Orioles were called the Milwaukee Brewers. Weird.
Q. When Derek Jeter re-signs with the Yankees after this season, how long do you think they will resign him for?

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Did you know...?

For our second installment of "Did you know...?" we'll be discussing Runs Batted In, or RBIs, one of the greatest signs of consistent and timely hitting. RBIs are important because they tell us whether a guy can hit when it really counts, like when a runner is in scoring position. Now there are more complicated stats nowadays that explain how proficient a guy is on a 3-1 count when facing lefties who throw predominantly curve balls when the wind is coming in at 10 mph, but I don't care about that crap. Frankly, far too many stats are compiled lately due to the rise of statisticians in baseball. I blame the rise of ESPN and other sports media outlets. While statistics are wonderful and help chronicle how good someone is, there is a limit to their use.
That now being said, do you know who holds the record for RBIs in a single season? There have been some fantastic RBI hitters in the past, but the all-time leader will most likely surprise you. It's not Hank Aaron, or Lou Gehrig. It's Hack Wilson, a centerfielder for the Chicago Cubs, who drove in an absolutely outstanding 191 runners in 1930. 191! That is nearly double what today is considered a great RBI season. Just to add how fantastic of a year that was for Hack Wilson, he also batted .356 and had an OBP of .454.
Wilson never came close to matching his own record, but did have some stellar performances in other years. The previous year in 1929, he hit a then career best 159, and hit over 100 RBIs four more times. Wilson didn't earn an MVP for his efforts in 1930 oddly enough, because Major League Baseball didn't make an official pick for Most Valuable Player every year until 1931. And strangely before that, once a person was voted MVP, they could never be picked again. This explains why the likes of Ruth and Cobb only ever won once.
And while we are in that era, I'd like to mention that the great Lou Gehrig had some mighty fine RBI seasons of his own. Out of the 25 best single-season RBI performances to date, The Iron Horse owns five of them. That's insane. Had his career not be cut short by illness, he almost certainly would've been the reigning RBI king. That honor goes to Mr. Aaron though, who has 2297 career RBIs. The only current player that even has a chance of catching that total is Alex Rodriguez who in 16 MLB seasons has 1706 RBIs. He would need six more seasons of 100 RBI production to pass Hammerin' Hank.
One other noteworthy performance to include is Manny Ramirez's 1999 campaign where he batted 165 runs in. That was the first time since World War II that a player had hit over 160 RBIs. I think it's pretty safe to say that Hack Wilson's record of 191 RBIs in a single season will most assuredly never be eclipsed.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Legends

Let's cut right to the chase. Three Hall of Famers have retired this off-season. Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson are assured a spot in the Hall of Fame because of one simple number; 300. Glavine's career numbers are great; 305 wins, an ERA of 3.54, two Cy Young Awards on his mantel, and five seasons of 20 or more wins. The man was consistent and a downright winner. Even if he hadn't reached the pinnacle 300 mark, he still would've had a fantastic chance to be elected to the Hall. 300 simply makes it a first-ballot lock.
Mr. Johnson's numbers were even better. The Big Unit won five Cy Young awards, and placed second or third in the voting four more times! Johnson is second place all-time in strikeouts with 4875, trailing only the phenomenal Nolan Ryan, who's record will never be eclipsed. His career ERA is just 3.29, and left-handy Randy also breached the 300 win mark with 303. His ticket to Cooperstown is punched.
The quality and stamina of these two pitchers is legendary, and deserving of Hall of Fame induction. I could go on and on about their accomplishments for hours, if not days. However, I'd like to take some time and discuss a player who may not be a lock for the Hall in some people's minds. A man who played the game of baseball at a Hall of Fame level for many years. Let's discuss this man and see if you agree with me. That man is The Big Hurt, Mr. Frank Thomas.
Big Frank was one of the most feared hitters in the American League in the 1990s. He not only mashed the ball with tape-measure blasts, but he was a high average hitter as well. From his rookie season in 1990 until his shortened 2001 campaign, Frank Thomas hit over .305 every year but one. In '94 he hit .353, in '96 he hit .349, and in '97 he hit .347. And Frank Thomas was not an all-or-nothing hitter like today's Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard. He struck out just 61 times in 1994, but walked 106, earning Frank a career-high .487 on-base percentage, which ranks the 35th best single-season OBP of all time. That puts Thomas in the company of Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, and Babe Ruth, just to name a few.
To compare a contemporary player, Jim Thome (whom I adore) is up for HOF consideration with 564 HRs, 1565 RBIs and career .277 average. Frank Thomas betters Jim Thome in every major hitting category, except homers, by a considerable distance. Oh, and have I mentioned that Thomas has two MVPs under his belt, which is one more than Ken Griffey Jr, a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
But Frank Thomas can't be summed up with stats. He was a presence on the field. As a child, I watched him loom large over other players. At 6'5" and 257 lbs, he was a giant among the first-basemen I idolized like Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly. He helped shape first-base into the homer smashing position it demands today, but paved the way for guys like Albert Pujols who do it with average. He held then, and still holds today, a special place in my memory.
In short, this off-season has seen the retirement of some icons of baseball. Glavine and Johnson can start preparing speeches now. Frank Thomas may have to unfairly wait due to his considerable time as designated hitter. And while I hate the DH, and we shall reserve the conversation about DH-only players being allowed in the Hall for another time, Frank Thomas had his best years while playing first. But whenever, or however Frank Thomas gets in, he without question deserves to have that bust with his name on it. The Big Hurt should live forever in the Hall, and rightfully so. I mean, come on, The Big Hurt. You know a guy has to be awesome with that nickname. And we all know how much I love nicknames.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Fantasy Camp

"Kramer goes to a fantasy camp. His whole life is a fantasy camp. People should plunk down two-thousand dollars to live like him for a week. Do nothing, fall ass-backwards into money, mooch food off your neighbors, and have sex without dating. That's a fantasy camp!"
While George Costanza's words may be accurate of how we all wish to live, they speak to the relationship men hold with baseball fantasy. We all want to be a ballplayer. Even men and women who say they don't enjoy watching baseball have been known to pick up a stick and take an imaginary swing. And who hasn't envisioned hitting a rocket whilst playing at a company softball game, or when farting around with friends in the park. Everyone would love to have the glory of a bonafide baseball star.
And yet few of us can achieve such greatness. The natural born talent, and dedicated work ethic are more than most of us can dream to have. And then some wonderful human being came up with fantasy baseball. No, it will not let us pretend we are these juggernauts of human prowess. It does one better. It lets us control them.
I've been playing fantasy baseball for a few years now, and while I took a break for a year because of a stupid argument, sorry Jerry, I've returned to the imaginary sport I love so dearly. Fantasy baseball is glorious because we get to pick our favorite players from around both leagues and put them on some perfect team that will never exist but for in our heads, and on a website database somewhere. It gives us a chance to control the destinies of titanic men.
And yet there is a realistic aspect to the greatness of fantasy baseball too. It helps the average fan become a better fan. While some people refuse to admit this, playing fantasy baseball will drive a team manager to discover new, young, unseen, or underrated talent that lurks in the murk of non-stardom. Who was Kendry Morales two years ago? He was an up-and-coming talent, but he was a bench player. Then last year he had a breakout season, but I hadn't heard of him until the end of the year. There were a few factors that contributed to this. One, I don't live in Los Angeles, so I don't hear about many players out that way. Two, since he was just up and coming, he hadn't made a huge name for himself in the larger markets of ESPN baseball nights, and therefore wasn't talked about in the manner that a Vladimir Guerrero was. And third, and most importantly, I wasn't playing fantasy baseball.
The other two facts couldn't really have been avoided, but the third could have, and had I played fantasy baseball last year, I would have been reading draft advice articles, looking up young talent videos, and constantly scouring the free agent pool during the season, looking for the next cheap, yet productive player.
Fantasy baseball allows us to control our favorite players, but more often than not, that is not the team we end up with. Therefore we must force ourselves to draft players we might not like or don't yet know, making us better fans of the game. Through the course of competition we are required to grow as fans, learning to appreciate players that may not play for our favorite team. And that is why I adore fantasy baseball. It makes me better.
If you're interested in joining the league I've started on Yahoo, the league ID# is 151137 and the password is baseball. The league name is Triplebaggers. I look forward to kicking your ass.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Snooze Button

Hey, it's been a while, and while my audience of one has been bitching at me to write again, truth is there just isn't much action going on in the baseball world right this minute. Yes, it's only six days from pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, and then official spring training starts a few weeks after that, but I'm now in this lull where no significant baseball news is coming out, and what did or does come out is the same ol', same ol'. I don't care where Johnny Damon is going to end up. In fact, his career is probably going to take a monstrous tumble after leaving the hitting-haven that the new Yankee stadium has become. So what should we talk about? How about a little off-season assessing. Ok good.
Now in an earlier blog I mentioned that Seattle has been cleaning up in the American League, and they have even made a few more tidy pickups that may help down the line. They signed Eric Bedard back to the team for the measily sum of $1.5 million, and yes he won't be ready until June or July, but if he can recapture some dominant stuff and stay healthy the rest of the way, imagine how good Seattle's late-season rotation could be. Sick, that's what it could be.
However, other than Seattle, most other teams in the AL haven't been too quick to drop the hammer on big deals. In fact, neither have the National League teams. The fact is, this was a slow off-season, with a somewhat less than stellar free-agent market, and an economy that has taken a bite out of most owners' wallets. The Nationals made some improvemtnts, adding Jason Marquis, Matt Capps, and Brian Bruney to bolster a young pitching squad, which is going to get even younger when the Nats rush Stephen Strasburg through their system. They've also added a couple position players as well, to help aid the offensive woes. Adam Kennedy and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez are both well past their primes, but they are still wily veterans who can put together decent enough stats while possibly tutoring youngsters. And I think this will be Ryan Zimmerman's truly breakout year, becoming possibly the best third-baseman in the NL. But for all these moves, the Nationals will still probably finish last in the NL East.
Other teams have added a piece here or there, such as Milwaukee adding Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and LaTroy Hawkins, while trading to add Carlos Gomez, a speedy outfielder. But these are not game-changing moves people. Even the Phillies, who made the biggest splash of the off-season when they traded to get Roy Halladay, then gave away Cliff Lee to rebuild their farm team. So they are only slightly better off than they were. The Mets signed Jason Bay, but is he going to make or break that team? Hardly. The Red Sox picked up an overpriced John Lackey, which might keep them from retaining Josh Beckett's services next year. That doesn't now make the Red Sox rotation unbeatable, and might even be a bad deal in the long run. The Cardinals kept Matt Holliday around, but put themselves in a similar boat as the Red Sox in that they may have a hard time finding money to keep Albert Pujols around next year. I personally believe the owners would sooner cut off their arms than let him go, but who knows. If Fat Albert asks for $25 million, or maybe even $30 million, do the Cardinals have that kind of money? Who the hell does?
Miguel Tejada went back to Baltimore. Wow. The "O-Dawg" Orlando Hudson went to the Twins. Ok. Ben Sheets is back and signed with the Athletics for....what?! That was a minor splash for it's utter stupidity. Guess what, he's going to break down. But I mean nothing changed the game. The Phillies, Yankees, and Cardinals are still the teams to beat in their divisions. The Cubs got rid of a bad contract, but haven't added anything. The Giants could've caught up to the non-spending Dodgers by getting a hitter or two, but instead thought a utility man would fix all their problems. And the AL Central is still pretty much anyone's game. I mean, other than Seattle possibly taken the title of AL West favorite away from the Angels, not much has changed. As far as I can tell, the most likely predictions for the 2010 World Series will be the Yankees and Phillies. Boring.
You know what I'm most looking forward to this season? The rookies. I think most teams have decided to hold off spending on a mediocre free-agent list, and instead put effort into building up farm systems. I love this idea, but it's often behind closed doors. Unless you follow baseball with the attention of an uber-nerd anaylyst, you won't get to find out how the prospects from every team are doing, and therefore the game on the Major League level stays somewhat stagnant. Some notable players may make the jump and create a stir in their divisions this year, but until that actually happens, there's no point saying this person is the next so and so, or this guy is going to change the franchise, because honestly, we just don't know yet. So while I'm excited for young talent, I also have to sit on my hands and wait to see who will actually perform and who's going to be the next big dud. You heard me Delmon Young.
In short, this off-season wasn't terrible, but it was lame overall. My team will still suck. The teams I don't want to be good will still go on being good. And the lesser teams will go on being lesser. I love the game and look forward to the start of the season with the anticipation of a fat guy passing a Burger King. But I'm just slightly bummed that more didn't occur. Maybe I'm asking too much, who knows. I just know that there's two feet of snow on the ground, so baseball is stuck on the back burner right now. At least the picture is something to get excited about. Yowza!