When you reach the last sentence of this post, we will be halfway finished with our 2nd Annual Prediction Special. Of course, before we get that far, we must analyze and concoct imaginary prognostications for yet another division in Major League Baseball. We've covered both the National and American League West thus far, so now join us as we fly from the west coast, all the way to the east coast, and delve into the NL East.
Last year I was right on the money with this division. I predicted the Phillies to finish first, the Braves to play runner-up, and then the Marlins, Mets, and Nats to round out the division. This was not a hard declaration to make, seeing as how Philadelphia is one of the best baseball teams in the entire league, has been for some time, and keeps reinvesting with stud veterans to make sure they remain at the top of the NL East. It was also pretty easy to see the Atlanta Braves improving, but not quite up to Philly's level. And it was the same old story with the other three clubs, floundering Marlins, mucked up Mets, and nothing doing Nationals.
Will 2011 be very different? Well for starters the Nationals have been spending money to get better. Unfortunately for them, they seem to be throwing it in the wrong places. They had a big name power hitting stud in Adam Dunn, but decided The Big Donkey's defense was a liability. Instead they spend a whole crap ton of money to acquire former Phil Jayson Werth, who is a very strong player, but not the true clean-up hitter that Dunn is. Stephen Strasburg had one of the biggest debuts of any player I can remember, but it was short lived as he needed Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow. His impact, and now his learning curve will be stunted in 2011 as well, but he should be the ace of the staff before long.
The Nationals do have plenty of bright spots in young players like outfielder Mike Morse, the 18-year-old Bryce Harper, catcher Wilson Ramos, and of course phenomenal third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Pessimistically, the weakest spot is still the pitching staff. There is no true ace, no real inning-eaters, and after trading Matt Capps, no dominant closer. If this club is going to get better in the next year or two, they will have to start spending smarter, and focus on what wins games, pitching.
Speaking of a team that needs to spend smarter, the Metropolitans are still a mess. Ace Johan Santana got hurt at the end of last year for the second season in a row. He required surgery on his elbow, which will delay his 2011 debut until around June. Until then the rotation will have to survive without him by leaning heavily on Mike Pelfrey, but who knows what Pelfrey Mets' fans are going to get this year. There is also pleasant surprise and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who could have a good year again, and young lefty Jon Niese who has some upside. But recent addition Chris Young, and consummate disappointment Oliver Perez will have to step up beyond what they are capable of doing in all likelihood, for this rotation to succeed without Santana.
The lineup isn't as big of a question, but it is still a question. Jose Reyes is in a contract year, and if he shows sparks of his earlier success, he will probably be traded by July. Carlos Beltran has agreed to move to right-field so as to save his knees, help in his recovery, and give Angel Pagan the everyday center-field position. Jason Bay should be almost all the way back from his concussion symptoms, and David Wright could produce solid numbers again, although his sometimes sketchy defense and his strikeouts have been major concern the past two years. 1B Ike Davis is probably the best young talent on the team, and could transform into a star in the next couple of years. In the end there are vast 'maybes' about this squad, including the new manager, and the future financial viability of the ownership, which leads me to believe that the new season will resemble the old in sadly too many ways.
The Florida Marlins were actually very busy in the trade market, which has not often been the case. They traded away young center-fielder Cameron Maybin to San Diego for bullpen help, and Dan Uggla to Atlanta for a small return. They signed catcher John Buck and Javier Vasquez, and really spend some time trying to improve the terrible bullpen by signing Randy Choate and acquiring Dustin Richardson, Edward Mujica, and Ryan Webb. The real strength of this club is in the solid rotation, led by ace Josh Johnson, and in the young hitters. Johnson is backed up by Vasquez, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, with Sean West and Chris Volstad vying for a spot. The stuff is there for all of these guys, but the quality control has sometimes been an issue.
Meanwhile the lineup boasts some of the most talented youngsters in the game. Chris Coghlan had a disappointing year after his 2009 ROY campaign, but has lots of ability, and a move to center could prove beneficial. Logan Morrison uses all fields and should be a high average guy. Gaby Sanchez had a breakout year with 19 homers and 85 RBI in his first full season. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best players in the game and is still only 27. Meanwhile, Mike Stanton could be the best power hitter to come up in the past five years or so. Stanton's 22 homers in 100 games is borderline disgusting, and if he recovers easily from a early hamstring injury, we could potentially be looking at a 30-40 homer guy. What this means for the Marlins is a lot of promise, but nothing guaranteed. The club will still struggle at times as defense hasn't been a strong aspect, but a second-place finish in the division is entirely possible.
Next comes the Atlanta Braves, who have a dynamic pitching staff of their own. Tim Hudson was the Comeback Player of the Year in 2010, and he leads a staff of Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens. We would be remiss if we didn't laud the bullpen, though, as this club may have the best pen in the majors. Even with Billy Wagner retired, they still have Jonny Venters, George Sherrill, Peter Moylan, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Medlan, just to name a few. If this club gets a lead, the pen should be able to close the game out with a win more times than not.
And get leads they shall, with this deep lineup. There is perennial All-Star catcher Brian McCann, rookie sensation last year Jason Heyward, rookie sensation this year Freddie Freeman, future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, Alex Gonzalez at short, and new acquisition Dan Uggla at second. If all cylinders click for this group, leads will be easy to come by. But health issues are always a concern for Jones. McCann has been vital year after year, but wear and tear at a demanding position could begin to show. Heyward may have a sophomore slump, although I think that is unlikely. And Uggla could struggle to adjust to his new team early on. Will these possible holdups be detrimental to their season?
Finally, there are the defending NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies. As if having Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamel weren't enough, they went out and reacquired Cliff Lee this off-season, which gives them maybe the best starting four in the majors. Each of these guys could stand to win 20 games this year, but the offense has to cooperate. Last year injuries and some setback play derailed the Phillies for parts of the season. They overcame these obstacles like true champions, though, and fought back to eventually have the best record in the baseball. Some misgivings still persist, however.
Chase Utley is still recovering from knee issues, and very recently highly-touted rookie right-fielder Dominic Brown suffered a fracture in his right hand that will most likely require surgery. How long that will put him out is still undetermined, but it throws a small kink in the cogs of trying to replace Jayson Werth. On the other hand, this could leave the door open for Ben Francisco or John Mayberry to step up. In other areas, Raul Ibanez had his lowest HR total since 2004, and could finally be on the decline at the tender age of 38. Ryan Howard's inability to hit the inside breaking ball has become more apparent over the years, and Jimmy Rollins is not only in a contract year, but still reeling from a injury-plagued 2010. Will these issues rise up to undermine the mighty Phillies empire?
Probably not. Philadelphia will still take the division as they are one of the best teams in baseball, and have proven over the past few years that they are ready to spend money in order to fix problem areas. The bullpen may be one facet where mid-season trades help the squad, but GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been incredibly adept at nabbing guys for the right price. The hesitations for the Braves and Marlins are still too large, and too many to compete with the Phils. If Philly stumbles, even in multiple areas, they will quickly get back up. If the other teams falter even in minors ways, it could spell the end of their playoff hopes. In 2011 the NL East is the Phillies' division to lose, and it doesn't look like they intend to do so any year soon.
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