2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 4 of 6

We started a pattern with this year's Prediction Special by first covering both western divisions, and then going over to the NL East. Why don't we keep that style going, and proceed to discuss the American League East now. Along the way, you might discover that from top to bottom, this is one of the best divisions in baseball. Who is the underdog, and who is the favorite? You'll just have to decide for yourself. Or listen to my prediction, which ever. Let's get to it.

Last year I predicted the New York Yankees to take not only the East, but the American League, and eventually the World Series. I had good reason to assume this as they were the defending World Series Champions from 2009, and hadn't changed for the worse in the off-season. Little did I know that A.J. Burnett would have a terrible overall year, with career worsts for a full pitching season in ERA, winning percentage, strikeout totals with 25 starts or more, hit batsman, WHIP, and Hits/9. Not having a steady and sometimes dominating number two starter wounded the Yankees, and while Phil Hughes stepped up to become that guy, the combined struggles of Burnett and Javier Vasquez put the pitching staff on notice against the rest of the league.

The bullpen held up with Mariano Rivera being his unstoppable self again, and of course the Bronx Bombers eventually hit their way to the playoffs, but not the way you probably thought they would. Mark Teixiera struggled early and mightily with his average, but made up for this season long drought with sheer power numbers. Alex Rodriguez was consistently productive all year, but not the MVP tour de force he had been when he was...well, you know. And Derek Jeter, the captain of the Yankees, had a less-than-Jeter .270 average hitting lead-off. However, while everybody said Jeter had an awful year, besides his average he really had a pretty standard, good year. He even won a Gold Glove, somehow. But the guys who really carried the team through some bad times were Nick Swisher in right field, who has become a really good all-around player, and Robinson Cano at second, who some people think has evolved into perhaps the greatest player in the game.

The Yankees didn't win the East, but did win the Wild Card, then proceeded to dismantle the Minnesota Twins for the fourth time in the past eight years. They themselves then got dismantled by the Texas Rangers, and that was all she wrote for the Yanks in 2010. Will 2011 be different? Well for starters A.J. Burnett is reportedly looking like his old self again in Spring Training, which gives the NY media reason to hope, even if just for a second. Also, Derek Jeter may be moved back to his normal duties batting second, which should be beneficial to him and the lineup as a whole. The Yanks missed out on all the major free-agents they went after, but eventually signed Raphael Soriano to pitch the eighth ahead of Rivera. This team isn't much better on paper than they were last year, so to say things will be any different might be a stretch. They are always a top tier club, though, and to rule them out entirely is just plain foolish.

There is another team in the division who may have something to say to that result, too. The Boston Red Sox won 89 games last year while being crippled with injuries almost from day 1. The 2010 season saw Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett and Jarrod Saltalamacchia missing huge chunks of playing time, with Victor Martinez, and J.D. Drew both playing less than 140 games. Terry Francona managed to keep the team afloat with contributions from minor league utility players, a MVP-type season from Adrian Beltre, and a resurgence of David Ortiz's power. On a side-note, I think Francona should have won Manager of the Year, but that's neither here nor there for this discussion. What matters is that the Sox proved they could play through adversity.

Things should be a little easier this go around. Not only are Pedroia and the others all healthy now, but GM Theo Epstein traded to obtain Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, and signed outfielder Carl Crawford to a huge deal. While Martinez and Beltre are now gone, this remains perhaps the most formidable lineup in all the majors now, and the sky is the limit for these hitters. Add onto that the pitching staff which consists of two young aces in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, veteran dynamos Josh Beckett and John Lackey, and the possibility of Daisuke Matsuzaka playing like his promise, and this rotation could be one of the best in the game. Not to mention the bullpen has young sensation Daniel Bard and new acquirement Booby (Haha, I wrote Booby) Jenks to backup Johnathan Papelbon. There is a real chance that this team could win 100 games without breaking a sweat. Meanwhile, Adrian Gonzalez, while recovery from shoulder surgery, is still my pick to be the AL MVP, as the Green Monster in left and the short porch in right will prove minor obstacles to Gonzalez when compared to the vast stretches of Petco Park out in San Diego. Does this make them the favorite to win the division?

Well first we should discuss the team that actually won the East in 2010. The Tampa Bay Rays were fantastic all year long with great pitching from David Price and Matt Garza, and with close out stuff from the aforementioned Soriano in the bullpen. Wonderful production was provided from the bats of Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford all season, while other players contributed with steals (B.J. Upton) and power (Carlos Pena). This team won 96 games and the AL East crown not by having All-Stars at every position and a giant payroll, but by playing hard every single game, and with great defense. The Ray committed the third least amount of errors in the American League last year. Team depth was so crucial that when one aspect of the team suffered, another took up the reigns and kept the club rolling along. They eventually lost the Division Series to the Texas Rangers, and looked somewhat outmatched throughout the series, which showed that it still does help to have clutch star players at times.

This team lost a huge proportion of its 2010 roster this off-season, which makes a repeat playoff appearance look doubtful in 2011. Crawford, Soriano, Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza are all gone, not to mention just about every arm from the bullpen. The Rays have cobbled together a new 'pen and have lots of young depth coming through the system to replace Garza and the every day players, but there are big question marks about how ready guys like Desmond Jennings and Sean Rodriguez are to play 162. Veteran presence from Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may help, but I believe both are too far past their primes to lend support in anything more than a mentoring role. Still, they may prove more of an impact than I realize. But to say this team is going to win the East again is a bit tough to swallow at this moment.

There are two up and coming teams still left in the division as well. The Toronto Blue Jays for one, have some dynamic starting pitching in Brett Cecil, Kyle (Son of Doug) Drabek, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen looks improved with the likes of former closers Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, and Carlos Villanueva. And the lineup doesn't look too bad either. Jose Bautista will try to replicate his monstrous 2010 season, but 54 homers is a bit much to repeat. Instead he might hit 30 or so, which is still great. If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy all season, and if Aaron Hill and Adam Lind can keep their power numbers while hitting anything better than .250, this team could be fit to surprise a lot of people. All the right things have to fall into place for that to happen, though. With that considered, it's possible for the Blue Jays to actually improve on their 85-win season of just a year ago.

The Baltimore Orioles will be another exciting team to watch, and lots of analysts are already calling them the surprise team of the year from either league. The O's did nothing short of transform themselves under the management of Buck Showalter last year. Luke Scott had his best career year, Nick Markakis continued to collect his 45 doubles, and Adam Jones is an elite center-fielder. This off-season was busy one for GM Andy MacPhail as he traded to get power-hitting 3B Mark Reynolds from Arizona, he signed veteran 1B Derek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero, brought in J.J. Hardy to play short, and Kevin Gregg to help solidify the 'pen. This team now has a excellence mix of veteran experience, and young up and coming talent like Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters.

The biggest flaw of this team is still undeniably the starting rotation. Not one starting pitcher had a winning record last year, and without innings-eater Kevin Millwood to take several for the team in 2011, young guys Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta are going to have to quickly learn how to handle the elite hitters of the American League East and beyond. The bats will keep this team in games, but if Buck and pitching coach Mark Connor can't turn these kids into MLB pitchers sooner rather than later, then this team will continue to suffer at the bottom of the division.

Who will go ahead and put all the talking to rest and win the East in 2011? Well, it's not much of a shock to see me picking the Boston Red Sox to win it this year. With a great rotation, and an unbelievably talented lineup, this club might just roll over its competition all year long. Then again, the club may not mesh, injuries could set in, and any given day the team might falter. However, I think as it stands the Red Sox have what it takes to beat the other four teams in the East.

Unlike most other divisions, though, the more interesting story lies in the other teams. The Orioles and Blue Jays have captured a lot of attention with high hopes floating around, and the Rays are garnering some notice for how they will handle the massive layoffs that resulted from the off-season. The Yankees will always draw press as well, because they are such a storied franchise. So while the Red Sox may take the American League, it might actually go somewhat unnoticed. Lots of people are expecting them to run away with it, so the only real surprise would be if they don't for some reason. Whether they do or not is all in how they play the game, and I for one can't wait for them to start.