After having appeared on the Andy $am$ 30 & 30 in 30 show for 91.3 WTSR last night, I've been antsy to discuss the Wild Card Races. It's been another few weeks since I've posted, so again I've missed a lot of baseball action. However, it appears as though the real excitement just began recently as the Wild Card spots were thought all but determined a few weeks ago. Not so anymore, as the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have lost their stranglehold on the final playoff golden ticket. Who is making a play for entrance into October baseball? Read on, and we shall see.
Let's start in the American League, where the Boston Red Sox have been absolutely abysmal of late. In the month of September the Sawks have gone 5-14, and have sputtered to only a 2 game lead in the Wild Card over the Tampa Bay Rays. The reason that gap closed so quickly was due to the Rays taking two of three from the Sox in the weekend series, forcing Boston to light a fire under their collective butts in order to make it to October. That light came yesterday in the second game of a double-header versus the Baltimore Orioles, when they outscored the O's 18-9. While that seems like a good sign, the offensive output was necessary in order to get pitcher John Lackey out of yet another terrible start, of which he's had many this year. With Lackey being effectively ineffective, the Red Sox are relying on Josh Beckett and Jon Lester to carry the rotation. Erik Bedard has been serviceable, and Tim Wakefield has been losing his knuckleball all season, so if for any reason Lester and Becket can't get it done, look for New England natives to bemoan a season that should-have-been.
The team directly in the rear-view mirror is the division rival Rays. They've gone 11-6 during September and before taking two of three from the Red Sox this past weekend, they swept Beantown at home the weekend before. The key to the Rays success is again good pitching. All five starters have at least 10 wins and only Wade Davis has an ERA north of four. Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta have been the real workhorses of the bullpen, but it's been enough to put the Rays in contention. The offense, amazingly has been able to compete even while lacking for a star hitter to carry everyone else. For sure Evan Longoria is a stellar player, but he was hurt early on, and his production has been hindered since. A .244 average is well below what he is capable of. However, Johnny Damon has provided a spark at times; Ben Zobrist has been driving in a ton of runs; B.J. Upton, for his terrible average, still knows how to hit homers and steal bases, and Casey Kotchman and Matt Joyce have produced as well. Most importantly, the team is playing well when it really counts, in late September.
The other team making a run at not only the Wild Card, but a Division Championship is the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos owe a lot of this season to rookie Mark Trumbo who leads the team in homeruns, RBI, and slugging percentage. Without Trumbo taking over for the injured Kendrys Morales this season, the Angels would have been floating up to Heaven a long time ago. As the offense has held on, the pitching staff is what really makes this team go, as Jered Weaver is having a Cy Young caliber season, Dan Haren has been fantastic as well, and even Ervin Santana, despite the win-loss record, has been very solid for the Angels this year. The hopes of a post-season rely heavily on these three pitchers, and other offensive players besides Trumbo need to step up. Torii Hunter has been good, and the infield has been contributors, but unless this team starts clicking on all cylinders soon, the post-season may just be out of reach.
Meanwhile, over in the National League, the Atlanta Braves have been falling apart, quite literally. Tommy Hanson hasn't pitched since early August, Jair Jurrjens since late August, Tim Hudson was on a bad streak until he ran into the Mets who gave him a tremendous start, Derek Lowe has given up 15 runs in his last three starts, and Brandon Beachy has pitched more than 6 innings only once in the past two months, making the bullpen work even harder to finish off games. The bullpen, for their part, has been extraordinary. However, the workload is starting to accumulate, and in the past few games Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters have been giving up homeruns like they were lottery tickets. Perhaps it's because those two, plus Eric O'Flaherty have pitched a collective 230.2 innings. That is a tremendous amount for three relievers to pitch, especially young guys who aren't exactly used to that sort of workload. This has been necessary because the Braves have played many close games due to a anemic lineup. The Braves have the 12th worst team average in the NL, 12th worst OBP, and are 5th in strikeouts. Dan Uggla caught fire late, and Freddie Freeman has had a very good rookie campaign, but if not for Chipper Jones staying healthy, I don't know if the Braves would be where they are now.
Where the Braves are, is on the hot seat, because here comes the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have been listed as clinically dead multiple times this season. First when Adam Wainwright was lost during Spring Training, then when Albert Pujols was sputtering in the early part of the season, and then finally when Milwaukee ran away with the Central a few weeks back. The Cardinals have kept plugging away, though, and now sit only 2.5 games back of the Braves. Thanks in large part to the offensive output of Lance Berkman early in the season, the Cardinals have managed to remain competitive even when all aspects of the team weren't clicking. Now that Pujols has returned to normal, Matt Holliday and Berkman are still hitting the ball around the park, and Jon Jay has taken over centerfield from the now-gone Colby Rasmus, the lineup is humming along quite nicely. The addition of Edwin Jackson has helped that rotation, and while it doesn't match up with the division leading teams heading to the playoffs, it's very serviceable, and could surprise folks.
Don't forget about the defending World Series Champions, the San Francisco Giants. They have won 8 straight games and sit just 1 game back from the Cardinals in the Wild Card hunt. Their offense has been atrocious this season, but with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ryan Vogelsong leading the rotation, anything is possible. With Barry Zito being oft hurt this season, and now Jonathan Sanchez being out, the emergence of Bumgarner and Vogelsong has been crucial. Over in the dugout, not much has been going right. Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval has comeback to have a great 2011, and is leading the team is just about every offensive category, which is remarkable seeing as how he missed some time with a wrist injury. The loss of Buster Posey this season was huge, and the lineup has struggled mightily to overcome his loss. Carlos Beltran came in and has provided some help, but one man cannot make a team go. The Giants seemed to win by miracles last year as guys came out of the woodwork to win games at the last minute. This year is different. If the rotation can carry the hitters for just a little while longer, than anything can happen in the playoffs. Getting there will still be a struggle, though.
So who is going to make it in the end? I have no idea. If I had to wager a guess, I would say the Red Sox and Cardinals would make it in. They look as though they have the depth enough to make it in. But you never can tell with so few games left. Every pitch counts, and one blooper here, or one error there can make or break a season. It looked as though the playoff run was going to be a snooze-fest, but it has turned into something excited to watch. I hope you're as interested as I am.
I would be extremely remiss if I did not mention the incredible feat that was accomplished by Mr. Mariano Rivera yesterday versus the Minnesota Twins. As he had done 601 times before, The Sandman came into the game in the ninth inning and gave his team an exceptional performance. He worked a clean inning with no hits or walks allowed, as he has done for a large part of his career 1209 regular season innings. He collected his record-breaking 602 save with a big grin and humble enthusiasm. His teammates surrounded him, and then pushed him onto the mound for the standing ovation he well deserved.
Mariano is without a doubt the greatest closer the game has ever seen. Since 1996 when he became a relief pitcher, Mo has had an ERA above three just once. His career 2.22 ERA is simply incredible, especially for being age 41 and still throwing enough heat on that famous cutter of his to break guys bats, as he did again on Monday night. What sets Mariano apart from his competitors is not so much the phenomenal regular season stats, as it is his post-season numbers. Mo has played in a ridiculous 31 playoffs series in his career, and is an outstanding 8-1 with 42 saves and a 0.71 ERA. Over the course of his October career, he has struck out 109 hitters and walked just 25. He is the epitome of calm, cool and collected, and has closed out more playoff series wins than any other pitcher in history. Whether in the regular season, or with the World Series on the line, Mo knows how to get it done. I can't say enough about Mariano, as he is one of those players that defies the logic of time and pressure. He is the "beast under your bed. In your closet, in your head." He is, in short, the greatest.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Monday, September 5, 2011
September Call-Outs
Usually September is a time to look forward. The playoffs are in sight, and many young players get a shot at glory during this month. But seeing as how I've been a little negligent in recent weeks and month, I would like to take this time to do some analysis of the earlier part of the year. In particular, those who signed big contracts in the off-season, only to barely show up for the 2011 campaign. The prime suspects: Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford.
Before I begin my tirade, though, I'd like to point out an egregious error I made in my last post. The error was not a statistical one, but one of omission. I failed to mention how the New York Yankees broke a Major League Baseball record by hitting three grand slams in one game versus the Oakland Athletics. The Yanks were at one point down 7-1 on August 25th, when 2B Robinson Cano took things into his own hands, and smacked a grand salami in the 6th inning to cut the lead to 7-6. Russell Martin then hit his second homer of the day, this time with the bases juiced, and made the game 10-7 in the Yankees' favor. Then all hell broke loose, and the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name, driving in 12 more runs over the next two innings, including another slam by Curtis Granderson, which at the time was his MLB-leading 38th homer. That win, and the outstanding record-breaking offense, helped catapult the Yanks into a tremendous run that saw them take two of three from the Red Sox, put them on a current four-game winning streak, and gave them the American League East division lead. That is some offense!
Back to my original post idea. Let's start with Mr. Carl Crawford, of the aforementioned Red Sox. In the off-season Crawford was coveted above all other free-agents. He had just come off a fantastic offense year which saw him win his first Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove awards. He was commanding contracts talks anywhere from $100 million and up when the Red Sox finally signed him to a staggering 7-years, $142 million, making him the second-highest paid outfielder ever. What has Boston received in return for this investment? Not much, honestly.
Carl hit a grand slam on Saturday versus the Texas Rangers, but these productive outbursts are more mirage than oasis. Previous to 2011, Carl Crawford had been placed on the Disabled List once, in 2008. 2011 comes along, and he's been on the DL, what, 75 times already? At least that's what it seems like. He was on there once this year, and I think he was put on twice more as precaution. An understandable move by Boston seeing as how they have put too much money into this guy to see him sit on the bench for a good part of the year. Crawford riding the bench as been almost more productive at times, though. He's hitting a meager .252 with 11 dingers, 17 stolen bags, and 52 RBI. The smaller home park is accountable for some of Crawford's increased power, but the stolen bases is a huge dropoff from his normal speedy game. Let's cut Carl a break and say that drop is due to his injuries and that next year he'll return to normal. What isn't normal, and hasn't looked that way for some time, is Crawford's comfort level at the plate.
Early on in the season, Crawford look absolutely lost at the plate. Maybe it was nerves, or the money that got him flustered, but it stuck with him for a long time, and he's only broken out of it in fits and spurts. His on-base percentage is a terrible .286, which is well below his career aver of .333. He's only walked 19 times this season, which is a number bench players usually see on their stat sheets. Perhaps most unproductive of all, he doesn't have a distinct role on the team. He was supposed to the speedy guy atop the lineup with Jacoby Ellsbury, but instead he's batted pretty much 1-9, and hasn't felt home anywhere. He's a man lost in a forgettable year right now. I doubt this will continue throughout his contract, but Boston fans have great memories. If Crawford struggles early on next year, 2012 may feel eerily similar to 2011.
Our next call-out is the third-highest paid outfielder of all time, Jayson Werth. Werth had a wonderful career in Philadelphia. He found a home hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard, and was a huge fan favorite out in right field. He was on top of the world. Then he became a free-agent, was purchased by the Washington Nationals for a ridiculous 7-years, $126 million, and has struggled mightily ever since. The reason, of course, is because when he was with Philly, Jayson was a cog in the well-oiled Phillies machine. He was not a star player, but a terrific asset to the team's overall construction. When he traveled just over 100 miles south to Washington, he took on a new role. He was still not the solo star player, because Ryan Zimmerman has that nailed down there, but he was expected not only to bring the same production he had with Philly over, but to compensate for the loss of Adam Dunn, who was a perennial 38-40 homerun hitter. Try as Jayson might, this was impossible from the get go.
This is not entirely Jayson's fault. First, he was given more money then he was reasonably worth as a player, but who in his right mind is going to say no to more money? Then Ryan Zimmerman goes down very early in the year, leaving Werth to act as the star player for about two months, which he wasn't up for. Add in the nerves of joining a new team, and a fanbase looking for a spark of any kind from an inferior team, and the recipe for success was tainted from the start. Jayson has stayed healthy, and he's tried to contribute as best he can. His homeruns are down, so he's been stealing bases more. He's not seeing good pitches because for the most part there isn't much protection around him in the Nationals lineup, so he's swinging at much more and therefore his strikeouts are up. His walks and RBI are down too, as a result. This may sound like I'm taking it easier on Werth than I am Crawford, but Werth has had significantly less to work with. Again, perhaps next year will be different. Hopefully Stephen Strasburg will come back healthy. Zimmerman should come back to full health and make up for a underwhelming season. And perhaps Bryce Harper may even be up by then, and provide another pressure valve for Werth. I don't see Jayson duplicating his numbers in Philly any time in the immediate future, but Washington is a team that is on the rise. Jayson may have gotten in the elevator while it was still in the basement, but he just might ride it all the way to the top.
The man Jayson effectively, or rather ineffectively replaced in Washington, has been the most dreadful of all the players mentioned. Adam Dunn is having one of the worst statistical seasons....ever. It's actually mind-boggling how bad he has been, and yet still receives playing time. It goes to show how monetarily invested team's get in a player, when he is consistently hitting well below .200, and yet still plays. That has been changing of late as Adam has been losing time and at-bats. While primarily he is the designated hitter, the Chicago White Sox have put Adam at first to try and see if time in the field will get his groove back like Stella. It hasn't. Instead, Adam has just made it apparent that there is very little anyone can do to get him out of this terrible funk.
For those of you who haven't seen, let's run by the stats real quick. In 2011 Dunn numbers look like this: .163 average (which is over 80 points lower than his already terrible career average of .244), 11 homeruns (he usually hits about 38), and 40...40!!! RBI (season average is closer to 95). Most telling of all is his slugging percentage of .288, which is almost half of his 162 game average of .505. Meaning that he is not driving in runners because he hasn't been hitting extra bases. These numbers are in all actuality, embarrassing, and Dunn knows it. He's said several times that he's ashamed of his performance and that he's trying everything he can think of to get out of this funk. It's more than likely too late for this season, but my hope is that 2012 will be a turnaround for Adam, as he's too established and productive a player to free-fall into oblivion like this.
I don't relish the fact that these guys are struggling. All players go through this once in a while, but it's amazing how each one of these guys switched teams, signed a huge contract in the off-season and now are not the same productive player they have been. The money certainly has something to do with it. If you are financially secure, there has to be some small part of a player that knows the internal push to get better and succeed is reduced. Then there is the pressure of starting a new life somewhere. Most players move to their new city, have to enroll their kids in new schools, or have to deal with being apart from their families if they go to the new town alone. Off-the-field issues are sometimes harder to deal with then just not hitting well. Then there are the fans. Rabid fans like the ones in Boston or other old-school baseball towns can sometimes go a little nuts. If a new guys comes in and isn't performing well, they only get a certain amount of leeway before the boo birds show up. All of this, plus injuries and new coaches, and new teammates make it tough for big name players to transition.
Let's hold back the tears, however. These guys get pay millions upon millions to deal with these issues, and when they don't perform up to capability, then perhaps the fans have a right to boo. After all, it's the fans money that keeps a team going. It's all a very complicated matter that goes much deeper than just "He sucks." We all use that excuse, but in truth, if a guy sucks, there is probably a lot more to it than that. Sorry that I had to call you out Crawford, Werth and Dunn. It's not personal, it's just that, well, you guys suck right now.
Before I begin my tirade, though, I'd like to point out an egregious error I made in my last post. The error was not a statistical one, but one of omission. I failed to mention how the New York Yankees broke a Major League Baseball record by hitting three grand slams in one game versus the Oakland Athletics. The Yanks were at one point down 7-1 on August 25th, when 2B Robinson Cano took things into his own hands, and smacked a grand salami in the 6th inning to cut the lead to 7-6. Russell Martin then hit his second homer of the day, this time with the bases juiced, and made the game 10-7 in the Yankees' favor. Then all hell broke loose, and the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name, driving in 12 more runs over the next two innings, including another slam by Curtis Granderson, which at the time was his MLB-leading 38th homer. That win, and the outstanding record-breaking offense, helped catapult the Yanks into a tremendous run that saw them take two of three from the Red Sox, put them on a current four-game winning streak, and gave them the American League East division lead. That is some offense!
Back to my original post idea. Let's start with Mr. Carl Crawford, of the aforementioned Red Sox. In the off-season Crawford was coveted above all other free-agents. He had just come off a fantastic offense year which saw him win his first Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove awards. He was commanding contracts talks anywhere from $100 million and up when the Red Sox finally signed him to a staggering 7-years, $142 million, making him the second-highest paid outfielder ever. What has Boston received in return for this investment? Not much, honestly.
Carl hit a grand slam on Saturday versus the Texas Rangers, but these productive outbursts are more mirage than oasis. Previous to 2011, Carl Crawford had been placed on the Disabled List once, in 2008. 2011 comes along, and he's been on the DL, what, 75 times already? At least that's what it seems like. He was on there once this year, and I think he was put on twice more as precaution. An understandable move by Boston seeing as how they have put too much money into this guy to see him sit on the bench for a good part of the year. Crawford riding the bench as been almost more productive at times, though. He's hitting a meager .252 with 11 dingers, 17 stolen bags, and 52 RBI. The smaller home park is accountable for some of Crawford's increased power, but the stolen bases is a huge dropoff from his normal speedy game. Let's cut Carl a break and say that drop is due to his injuries and that next year he'll return to normal. What isn't normal, and hasn't looked that way for some time, is Crawford's comfort level at the plate.
Early on in the season, Crawford look absolutely lost at the plate. Maybe it was nerves, or the money that got him flustered, but it stuck with him for a long time, and he's only broken out of it in fits and spurts. His on-base percentage is a terrible .286, which is well below his career aver of .333. He's only walked 19 times this season, which is a number bench players usually see on their stat sheets. Perhaps most unproductive of all, he doesn't have a distinct role on the team. He was supposed to the speedy guy atop the lineup with Jacoby Ellsbury, but instead he's batted pretty much 1-9, and hasn't felt home anywhere. He's a man lost in a forgettable year right now. I doubt this will continue throughout his contract, but Boston fans have great memories. If Crawford struggles early on next year, 2012 may feel eerily similar to 2011.
Our next call-out is the third-highest paid outfielder of all time, Jayson Werth. Werth had a wonderful career in Philadelphia. He found a home hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard, and was a huge fan favorite out in right field. He was on top of the world. Then he became a free-agent, was purchased by the Washington Nationals for a ridiculous 7-years, $126 million, and has struggled mightily ever since. The reason, of course, is because when he was with Philly, Jayson was a cog in the well-oiled Phillies machine. He was not a star player, but a terrific asset to the team's overall construction. When he traveled just over 100 miles south to Washington, he took on a new role. He was still not the solo star player, because Ryan Zimmerman has that nailed down there, but he was expected not only to bring the same production he had with Philly over, but to compensate for the loss of Adam Dunn, who was a perennial 38-40 homerun hitter. Try as Jayson might, this was impossible from the get go.
This is not entirely Jayson's fault. First, he was given more money then he was reasonably worth as a player, but who in his right mind is going to say no to more money? Then Ryan Zimmerman goes down very early in the year, leaving Werth to act as the star player for about two months, which he wasn't up for. Add in the nerves of joining a new team, and a fanbase looking for a spark of any kind from an inferior team, and the recipe for success was tainted from the start. Jayson has stayed healthy, and he's tried to contribute as best he can. His homeruns are down, so he's been stealing bases more. He's not seeing good pitches because for the most part there isn't much protection around him in the Nationals lineup, so he's swinging at much more and therefore his strikeouts are up. His walks and RBI are down too, as a result. This may sound like I'm taking it easier on Werth than I am Crawford, but Werth has had significantly less to work with. Again, perhaps next year will be different. Hopefully Stephen Strasburg will come back healthy. Zimmerman should come back to full health and make up for a underwhelming season. And perhaps Bryce Harper may even be up by then, and provide another pressure valve for Werth. I don't see Jayson duplicating his numbers in Philly any time in the immediate future, but Washington is a team that is on the rise. Jayson may have gotten in the elevator while it was still in the basement, but he just might ride it all the way to the top.
The man Jayson effectively, or rather ineffectively replaced in Washington, has been the most dreadful of all the players mentioned. Adam Dunn is having one of the worst statistical seasons....ever. It's actually mind-boggling how bad he has been, and yet still receives playing time. It goes to show how monetarily invested team's get in a player, when he is consistently hitting well below .200, and yet still plays. That has been changing of late as Adam has been losing time and at-bats. While primarily he is the designated hitter, the Chicago White Sox have put Adam at first to try and see if time in the field will get his groove back like Stella. It hasn't. Instead, Adam has just made it apparent that there is very little anyone can do to get him out of this terrible funk.
For those of you who haven't seen, let's run by the stats real quick. In 2011 Dunn numbers look like this: .163 average (which is over 80 points lower than his already terrible career average of .244), 11 homeruns (he usually hits about 38), and 40...40!!! RBI (season average is closer to 95). Most telling of all is his slugging percentage of .288, which is almost half of his 162 game average of .505. Meaning that he is not driving in runners because he hasn't been hitting extra bases. These numbers are in all actuality, embarrassing, and Dunn knows it. He's said several times that he's ashamed of his performance and that he's trying everything he can think of to get out of this funk. It's more than likely too late for this season, but my hope is that 2012 will be a turnaround for Adam, as he's too established and productive a player to free-fall into oblivion like this.
I don't relish the fact that these guys are struggling. All players go through this once in a while, but it's amazing how each one of these guys switched teams, signed a huge contract in the off-season and now are not the same productive player they have been. The money certainly has something to do with it. If you are financially secure, there has to be some small part of a player that knows the internal push to get better and succeed is reduced. Then there is the pressure of starting a new life somewhere. Most players move to their new city, have to enroll their kids in new schools, or have to deal with being apart from their families if they go to the new town alone. Off-the-field issues are sometimes harder to deal with then just not hitting well. Then there are the fans. Rabid fans like the ones in Boston or other old-school baseball towns can sometimes go a little nuts. If a new guys comes in and isn't performing well, they only get a certain amount of leeway before the boo birds show up. All of this, plus injuries and new coaches, and new teammates make it tough for big name players to transition.
Let's hold back the tears, however. These guys get pay millions upon millions to deal with these issues, and when they don't perform up to capability, then perhaps the fans have a right to boo. After all, it's the fans money that keeps a team going. It's all a very complicated matter that goes much deeper than just "He sucks." We all use that excuse, but in truth, if a guy sucks, there is probably a lot more to it than that. Sorry that I had to call you out Crawford, Werth and Dunn. It's not personal, it's just that, well, you guys suck right now.
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