2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 1 of 6

The time has come again to start making predictions about the upcoming 2011 baseball season. As Spring Training games start today, it's the perfect time to start fantasizing about the regular season. I have been anxiously waiting to start this segment, because I love trying to predict the future. While I try and stay away from it on a larger scale with trades and signings, it's only because I would essentially be doing nothing else. But the Prediction Special is different, because it allows us to cover the large scope of the game, individual divisions, and how they will perform through the season. Last year, I predicted the Yankees would defeat the Phillies in the World Series, and I failed miserably on that count. This year, I intend to do better. So let's get started, shall we?

"San Francisco may well just have enough to take the division, but not much beyond that."

That was from my Prediction Special last year for the NL West, and since I screwed that up so royally, let's go back to that division to start things off. It turns out the Giants did have enough to take the West, and had plenty left over to become National League and World Series Champions. They did so with the help of timely, clutch hitting by guys like Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, and mid-season acquisition Pat Burrell. Meanwhile Buster Posey, the eventual NL Rookie of the Year, burst onto the scene with a big bat, and veteran presence behind the plate after taking over for Bengie Molina, who was traded to the Texas Rangers.

More importantly, though, the Giants won on great pitching. Tim Lincecum may not have won a third-straight Cy Young award, but his performances in the playoffs outshined his competitors, as he beat both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Matt Cain was also phenomenal, as he did not let up a single earned run throughout the postseason. Jonathan Sanchez held his own against the competition, and Madison Bumgarner showed poise beyond his years as he pitched a 3-hit, eight-inning World Series Game 4. Add a dash of shutdown closer Brian Wilson, and the Giants pitched themselves to victory.

They will succeed in 2011 on the same basis, as pitching will keep them winning. The club will miss Renteria and Uribe's versatility, but they are also getting back Mark DeRosa who missed last year due to injury. Pablo Sandoval needs to reemerge and show he can play third-base everyday, and the plethora of outfielders have to find their roles. If a key trade in June/July can bring in a boom stick, then this club has a great chance of returning for a deep run into the playoffs. There are some other teams that might have something to say about that, however.

For one, the Colorado Rockies. They came on late last year like a bat out of hell, but fizzled down the stretch. Ace Ubaldo Jimenez couldn't retain his early dominance, Jorge Del La Rosa stumbled late in the season, and Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez couldn't mash this team to victory. The story hasn't changed much for the Rockies this off-season. The team picked up relievers two Matts, Belisle and Lindstrom. Ty Wigginton should be a good utility pickup, too. The Rockies didn't make an effort to bolster the rotation with an innings eater, though, or sign a big free-agent. Instead, they extended both Gonzalez and Tulo, and felt content to try again with the same basic team. Perhaps the result will be different this year. Perhaps not.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were a team I expected much more from. Joe Torre's last managing season was a washout as OF Matt Kemp didn't play to his potential, and in actuality got worse. Andre Ethier had a nagging finger injury that impacted his 2010, and Russell Martin had a sub-par, injury-riddled year and is now gone. SP Chad Billingsley showed signs of dominance, but eventually settled into his 2009 form of being a good number 2 or 3 pitcher. The brightest spot of the season had to be Clayton Kershaw emerging as the clear ace of the staff, with career bests in wins, IP, WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched) and strikeouts. As the 2011 season starts, the rotation with Kershaw in the lead, looks like this: Ted Lilly, who was resigned, Billingsley, and a recuperating Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jon Garland battling for the last two spots. This rotation is strong, but not overwhelming. The lineup should be better if Kemp and Either return to prominence, but there are infield question marks that still exist, and former Giant Juan Uribe isn't fixing all of them. The Dodgers I thought were showing up in 2010, don't look to reemerge in 2011.

The Diamondbacks were a sad case last year. My possible win total in 2010 of 85 games was waaaaay off. Bottom line is the team wasn't well trained, and swung and missed too much. The removal of Mark Reynolds who was traded to Baltimore should help that, but he is also a big bat to replace. Going into 2011, GM Kevin Towers has put together a new-look rotation of Zach Duke, Armando Gallaraga, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy and Joe Saunders, with Saunders looking like the veteran number 1, and Hudson appearing to have the most potential. In fact, after he was traded from the White Sox, Hudson went 7-1, with a 1.69 ERA and a 4.38 K/BB ratio for Arizona. These numbers might not fully translate into 2011 brilliance, but there is hope that a young ace is in the works here. Add to that the fact that the D-Backs still have tremendous young talent in Chris Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Kelly Johnson, and there is some tempered optimism in Phoenix.

The San Diego Padres were the surprise team of the year for just about everybody. I, like pretty much everyone else, predicted a bad year for the Padres, and stated they would all but finish dead last in the West. Shows how much I know. The big, young rotation of Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, and Clayton Richard performed much better than anticipated, and will all be around in 2011. Casey Kelly, the main acquisition in the Adrian Gonzalez trade will look to join them sometime late this year. The bullpen was another highlight as Joe Thatcher, Mike Adams, and Luke Gregerson paved the way for Heath Bell to close out a career-high 47 saves. Gonzalez had another All-Star year, but as he's now in Boston, the Padres no longer have a big offensive threat in the middle of the lineup. The Padres instead have improved their defense greatly with new guys Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, and Cameron Maybin up the middle. Brad Hawpe will most likely take over for Gonzalez at first. Another 90-win season is unlikely in 2011, as it seems the Padres will live and die with pitching and defense. Just don't be too surprised if the team is better than we think.

So it comes down to which team will actually put up or shut up, and win the division. Usually throughout the course of an off-season one team will make a splash with new players. This off-season, though, it seems just about every team in the NL West was content to either sit on their hands, or make minor moves. So by things not changing drastically, it only benefits the defending World Series Champions. While I think the Rockies can again make a strong showing, and could contend for a Wild Card, the Giants have to be considered the favorite to take the West with their dynamite pitching. The magic that came together for the Giants' 2010 Championship run may be hard to repeat in 2011. Should timely hitting, and a possible mid-season move or two come into play, however, the offense may again get hot late in the season. And as we all know, it doesn't matter how you start, it only matters how you finish.

Deal or No Deal?

Well, it's official!! A deal has been reached that will keep the star player in uniform for a while now. Yes, it's been a hard fought journey, and many in the media said the two sides were going to part ways. But in the end solid negotiations, and a desire to further the future of the franchise made it possible for a deal to be struck and for the Toronto Blue Jays to keep Jose Bautista for five more years. Oh, you weren't anticipating a story about Mr. Bautista? You must have been thinking of Rickie Weeks then, because he just got a new deal, too. Not him either? Then who, for crying out loud?

Albert Pujols, you say! Oh, that old story. I said old, of course, because it feels as though this saga of 'will he or won't he' resign with the St. Louis Cardinals before Spring Training, has been going on for weeks and months now. Actually, it has. That's because the baseball world is enraptured by the possibility that the best player in baseball might be leaving his 10-year home for new digs, and a new uniform. The Albert Pujols story has been all over MLBNetwork, ESPN, Yahoo.com, endless baseball blogs, smaller sports networks, and even in those things people used to read, I think they are called newspapers.

Why is this story so important? Well, as much as you might think it's about money, and it certainly is, it's also about something more than that. Albert has been with the Cardinals ever since he signed as a draft pick back in 1999, he's never played for another team, and over the past few years he's become the best all-around player in the game of baseball. He has also helped the city of St. Louis recover from the Mark McGwire steroid story by being a good role-model and a (as far as anyone can tell) totally clean player. He also assisted in bringing a World Series Championship to the Gateway City in 2006, a feat the team has threatened to do again nearly every year simply because he's on the roster.

Albert has become something more than just a great ball player to the people of St. Louis. He has become an icon, much like the legendary Stan Musial who was honored in the White House this past Tuesday by receiving the Medal of Freedom from President Obama. To be mentioned in the same breath as Stan the Man, who played 22 awe-inspiring seasons for the Cardinals, is something special for Mr. Pujols. However, the fact is Pujols actually has a chance to surpass Stan's stature if he eventually resigns with the team and stays on for another 8 years or more. He would break a lot of Stan's records, and would solidify himself as the best player in the long history of one of the best sports franchises in America. But with such a hefty presence, Pujols also has the ability to negotiate a record-breaking contract, something it appears the St. Louis front-office isn't prepared to kneel to just yet. Which begs the question; Is Albert worth $30 million a year?

I'll save you the time and tell you that there is no correct answer here. In theory no player is worth that much, because paying him such a gargantuan fee would force the team to sacrifice quality in almost everything other aspect of the roster. However, it can be said that one historic-type player can change the attitude of a team, making mediocre players better, and can be a guiding tool for younger players coming up through the system. Say for instance that Albert teaches three younger players how to emulate his hitting over the course of his career. Would he be worth more then? Or should statistics alone drive a player's contract value?

These are all very tough questions, and it is easy to see why the St. Louis Cardinals haven't just signed away hundreds of millions of dollars on a whim. Real consideration is needed, but unfortunately Albert set a deadline that negotiations would end when he got to Spring Training, and it appears as though he intends to stick by that timetable. It's true that he and his agent can reopen talks at any time, and that the club will have a small window immediately after the 2011 season concludes to try and hash together a deal. As this deadline has come and gone, though, it's looking more likely that this stoppage was something more critical than just a pause to deal-making. It has the feel of something final, as though the 2011 season will be a macabre send off.

But who knows. Maybe Albert really does want to stay in St. Louis and he's just trying to earn a few extra dollars. Maybe he'll become a free-agent, but the market won't be there for him, and the Cardinals squad will have the upper hand in future discussions. Maybe a surprise team will come out of nowhere and spend a boatload just to gain an attraction, putting some fans in the seats. There are many possibilities right now. Not all of them play out well for the fans of St. Louis baseball, who have come to honor Pujols for what he is, a living, playing legend. It will be a very sad day there if he does leave. It will be a remarkable thing to see if he stays and finishes a Hall of Fame career with one team. It's just a matter of time, but that's one thing that seems to be slipping away right now for the team in St. Louis.

I was serious, of course, when I mentioned Jose Bautista earlier. He has reached a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. The 54-homerun slugger finalized a deal that will keep him in Toronto Blue for 5-years, at $64 million. In my humble opinion, this is a little much for a player who quite frankly, was never that good before last year. In actuality, he was a utility player when he came into camp in 2010, and he had never hit more than 16 homers in a season. So far this off-season I haven't heard from any analyst who thinks he'll hit 50 homers again. I believe he can hit around 30 or so. Which is still great and all, but the Jays are taking a huge risk that he'll be able to do that again and again for the next five years. When consistency has never been a big aspect of Bautista's game, that's a pretty big price tag to put on the guy. But as I've said, time will tell.

Rickie Weeks grabbed himself an extension, as well. The Milwaukee Brewers signed the oft-injured second-baseman to a 4-year, $38.5 million deal, with potential to become a 5-year, $50 million agreement, depending on playing time. If the Bautista deal was risky, this deal is down-right dangerous. While Weeks is an exciting player, and fits into Milwaukee's lineup very nicely, he's only played 160 games once, and that was his last year. Previous to that, he's played 100 games or more just twice (118, and 129), mostly due to the nagging injuries I mentioned. His 29 homeruns, 83 RBI, 32 doubles, 112 runs, and 175 hits were all career numbers in 2010, but you are never supposed to pay for a career year. It would have been smarter for the Brewers to agree to his 1-year arbitration asking price, and then see if he can repeat his production two years running. By signing him long-term after just one stellar campaign, they have essentially made a huge bet without looking at their hand.

If Weeks continues to get hurt over the course of the next four years, the Brewers will be out a lot of money. And with Weeks' history, it's not a long shot that he'll be hobbled, it's more a probability. I certainly don't wish it on Rickie, but every player gets dinged up throughout the season. Why take a risk on a guy who you know this happens to on a more frequent basis? This is bad general managing from my point of view.

This signing also has a similar effect for the Brewers, what the Matt Holliday signing did for the Cardinals. It shows that the team wants to win, but it creates a tough financial atmosphere to resign a power-hitting first-baseman. For the Brewers, that's Prince Fielder, who is entering the final year of his service with the club, and will become a free-agent unless signed to an extension. It has become abundantly clear that Prince expects to be paid in the nine figure range over the course of several years. So unless this splurge of money on Weeks is a sign of things to come from the front-office, the Brew Crew fans may have to start looking for a new 1B to root for. Maybe Pujols.....? Nah.

St. Valentine's Day Massacre

As the day of love draws near, it must be remembered with a heavy heart, that relationships don't always work out. Simply garnering the affections of another does not mean that everlasting love is accorded. This is true in all relationships, and no different in baseball. Players and fans, fans and owners, owners and players all dance to a very delicate rhythm together. The smallest divergence could upset the balance. So it is the case now, with several particular issues in baseball, that relationships are being tested. Some are on the precipice, while others may change for the better. Let's take a look at some of these tumultuous love affairs.

I would have liked to speak about the Michael Young saga once he had been traded, as I don't like to speculate about 'what ifs' too much in this blog. In all actuality, I love doing that, but in my own personal time. I don't want to waste endless blog space trying to figure out who might be traded where and when, because I would essentially be writing about nothing else, and wasting your time. Back to my point, however, it is necessary to discuss Mr. Young's particulars here and now. His dilemma is such that he believes he has been "misled and manipulated" by the ownership and by Jon Daniels, the general manager of the Texas Rangers. While we don't know the intimate details of franchise conversations, it's not hard to see where he is coming from.

For 11 years, Michael Young has been the face of the Rangers organization. Since 2000 he's been, at various times, the everyday 2B, SS, 3B. He's been a five-year 200 hit collector, a six-time All-Star, a Gold Glover at shortstop, and a quiet team leader. He has been asked to do a lot by his team, and he's done so with class, and verve. As I mentioned in a prior blog detailing Adrian Beltre's signing, Young's future is now very uncertain with the Rangers, and as of Feb. 7th, he feels his aspirations lie elsewhere. That's right, Mr. Young requested a trade, and the Rangers agreed to do so, only if the arrangement betters the club.

This fractured relationship is the perfect example of the baseball world. Everyone knows that baseball is a business, and only extremely rarely are players lauded with loyalty contracts. Derek Jeter's new deal is an example of that, as are Todd Helton and Tim Wakefield's 'lifetime contracts', which allows each player to stay with his respective team as long as he wishes to. So an argument can and should be made that Texas is only doing what they see fit, so that they might return to the playoffs, and another World Series bid. Considering that, one has to take into consideration the sacrifices that the player makes as well. Young hasn't just played his position adequately over the years and been paid handsomely to do so. He has been asked to learn a new position, twice. Each time he has done so, he has put up little grief, and has excelled at each position almost immediately. For anyone who doesn't know, this is a very hard feat to accomplish.

However, for all the effort, the Rangers took at look at what they could have, as opposed to what they did have, and decided Michael's future wasn't what the team needed. So they made it abundantly clear that his role would be reduced. How far they planned to reduce that role may be the source of the contention of "manipulation", but we'll probably never know that for sure. All we know now is that Michael Young is unhappy, the front-office seems perfectly fine with letting a franchise face go, and a trade to...somewhere is looming. It's a sad part of the business, and ideally it would have ended more magnanimously for both sides. But few relationships usually end well. They end for a reason, after all.

Michael Young is not the only man who might be switching teams soon. While Albert Pujols has a full no-trade clause in his contract and won't be going anywhere this season, if the St. Louis Cardinals aren't able to agree to an extension before Albert reports to Spring Training, then it's very likely that the face of that franchise, not to mention baseball, will be moving to another team next year. To say Albert Pujols has done a lot for the Cardinals is like saying the drive-thru line at McDonald's at 5pm is a little slow. It's an understatement. Fat Albert is the best baseball player in the game right now, hand's down, and is on pace to be one of the best hitters ever.

To extol his accomplishments is somewhat unnecessary, but let's do it anyway. He's been an All-Star 9 times in 10 years. He's a six-time Silver Slugger, a two-time Gold Glover, he was the 2001 Rookie of the Year, he's won three MVP awards, and finished in the top five voting six other times. He's led the N.L. in homeruns for the past two years, he's never had less than 100 RBI, he owns the 2003 Batting Title, he is a four-time total bases leader... you know what, let's just stop there. The point is, Albert Pujols has a lot of money coming his way. But how much, is the big question.

Alex Rodriguez started the ball rolling when he accepted a record-breaking 10-year $250 million contract from the aforementioned Texas Rangers in 2001. The reason being because, well Texas offered it, but also he was a phenomenal power hitter at the premium fielding position of shortstop. That monstrous contract has set the bar for baseball stars for the past decade as everybody has wanted to reach or exceed the $25 million/year mark. Still, though, no player makes as much per year as A-Rod, who resigned with the Yankees in 2008 with a 10-year $275 million new deal. Albert is looking to exceed that.

Of course we don't know Pujols' personal motivations or what he actually 'wants', but all indicators are pointing to him expecting a 10-year $300 million contract. The Cardinals are not the biggest spender in the game, but certainly aren't poor. They didn't help their Pujols situation by purchasing Matt Holliday's services at an exorbitant rate of $120 million over 7 years last year. Meanwhile, the team has other big fish to consider, like ace pitchers Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, not to mention putting an entire team on the field (St. Louis has merely four players locked up after 2011). So the Red Birds presently look like they are balking at such a deal. Some say they have reason to, as A-Rod's deal was unique to his position, while Albert is one of many outstanding first-basemen in the game today. But I digress.

So unless Cardinal's GM John Mozeliak can put together a miracle in the next week, it looks like Albert Pujols might be hitting the free-agent market for the first time in his career. What that will bring him is still uncertain, as the biggest spenders out there, (Boston and the two New York teams) either have long-term options at first-base, or are going into ruin, and/or litigation. Maybe a surprise team like the Dodgers will get into the mix, but the money that Pujols is looking for might not be there from any tam. In the meantime, the joyous relationship the fans and owners had with Pujols is on the skids, and that romance may never come back. We'll have to wait and see on that one, though.

But bad blood doesn't always come from huge, record-breaking contracts or lengthy service. Sometimes just a few dollars can cause hard feelings. Take Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels for instance. The righty starter was arbitration eligible, meaning that the player and owner have to agree to a contract, and if not, that dispute goes to an impartial arbiter to decide. This is often a last ditch resort, because it means that both the player and team have to attend what is essentially a court proceeding, and they have to bad-mouth each other in order to win their argument. In Weaver's case, he lost, meaning the Angels had to tell Weaver everything he's not, right in front of him, and then walk away victorious. This is like sitting through divorce proceedings while being forced to stay together.

What could possibly have brought these two sides to such an ugly disagreement? Less than $1.5 million. That's right, Jered Weaver asked for $8.8 million, and the Angels countered and won with $7.365 million. And in case you haven't heard, Weaver is the ace pitcher of that club. Not only did he lead all of baseball in strikeouts in 2010, but he had a better ERA than C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander and Chris Carpenter, all of whom make more than him. He pitched more innings than Zach Greinke, Cliff Lee or Ryan Dempster, all of whom make more than him. He also only walks 54 batters last year, meaning 80 other starting pitchers walked more guys, and guess what, a ridiculous percentage of those 80 starters make more than him.

My point isn't to pity Jered Weaver, because in the end he'll sign a big long-term deal and will eventually have more money than I can ever dream of. The point is to explain how relationships in baseball get so easily tattered. Players fight with owners for pay. Owners kick out fan-favorites for new blood. Fans turn on players who get paid a ton of money and then don't perform. (Think Carl Pavano in his Yankees years.)

Baseball is all about emotion, and when money gets mixed in with passion, things get screwy. I don't expect that to change, and quite frankly I don't want it to. It's just one of the aspects that makes the game exciting. The passion we feel is palpable, and courses through us as if we were in love. Whether that love goes awry or stays true is a matter of time and perspective. So even if you don't have somebody to hold onto this St. Valentine's Day, take some comfort in the fact that baseball will always be there for you. And that pitchers and catchers report in about a week. Boo-yah!

Prospects On Deck

About two weeks ago several prospects lists came out. All of these lists disagree slightly because some are written by one sports writer, while others are a collaboration of opinions. So for the sake of argument, I am choosing to evaluate one particular list, and that is the MLB.com Top 50 Prospects. I'm using MLB.com's list because it gathers information from over 20 scouts throughout the league. While this is a excellent starting point to assess talent, it is by no means the perfect answer, and there will always be someone who says the list is total crap. But seeing as how none of us have the time to personally evaluate these players one by one, let's just use this one.

For starters, some of you may be asking what makes a player a prospect. To answer that, I will refer to a MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo who says, "To be eligible for the Top 50 list, a player must simply have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player-limit period." Pretty straight forward stuff. However, this gets a little hairy when you consider that some players have 'cups of coffee' in the majors for several years. Meaning, a player can have some major league experience, while still retaining rookie status for a lengthy amount of time. Take Delmon Young of the Minnesota Twins for instance. While he was with the Tampa Bay organization, he was #1 on several prospect lists for multiple years, mainly because he never crossing his rookie status. While this is rare, it does mean that not everyone on this list is a fresh-faced kid coming out of high school or college.

The big name that some of you may have heard about even before this list come out, is Bryce Harper. Harper was the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and is now the property of the Washington Nationals. The hype surrounding this kid is incredible. Harper appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was still in high school, for crying out loud! This Harper-mania is due to his amazing raw hitting talent at such a young age. He seems to use all areas of the field, and combines that with excellent, natural power. The 18-year-old supposedly has a cannon right arm, very good speed, and has had more comparisons to Hall of Fame players than Jason Heyward. So it came as a shock to some when Harper was ranked #3 on MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects list.

The honor of the top spot instead goes to Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. At just 19, he has the make-up of a Gold Glove centerfielder with a stellar bat and plus speed which helped him steal 56 bases in his first full season in the minors. He also has a tremendous work ethic according to scouts, which is a wonderful thing to see from a young player with so much natural talent. While power isn't yet a huge part of his game, his numbers surely will increase over time. For right now, though, he projects to be a top-of-the-order, base-stealing, run-scoring machine. Some suggest Trout could even be with the major league club as early as next year.

Sandwiched in between Trout at #1, and Harper at #3, is Jeremy Hellickson. The right-hander is the top pitching prospect in baseball and is partially why the Tampa Bay Rays were able to trade away Matt Garza. They believe Hellickson is talented enough to step into the back-end of the rotation immediately. He was a 4th round pick in the 2005 draft and has developed an outstanding curveball, change-up and cutter to compliment his mid-90s fastball. His strikeouts/9 is 9.8 over the course of 6 minor league seasons, and he looks to bring plenty of those strikeouts to the majors while limiting walks-allowed.

Don't worry, I'm not going to devote a paragraph to each rookie, but it's important to note the impressive talent baseball that will be producing in the majors in the next couple of years. Outstanding prospects like Trout, Harper and Hellickson can help transform a team from a cellar-dweller into a competitor. But not all prospects will pan out. Injuries, egos, and lack of development can plague these young men, and occasionally highly-touted phenoms never reach full potential. That is why small-market teams in need, like the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays, have to stock up on young talent, to ensure that success will eventually come.

Look no further than the Rays to show how a front-office should be run. For the past three years or so, the Rays have been one of, in not the best, most consistent team in baseball. With high-quality pitching and hitting, the Rays were able to reach the World Series in 2008, and nearly make it back in 2010. But because they are a small-market team, Tampa Bay has a hard time holding on to talent when free-agency comes calling, and home-grown guys like Carl Crawford end up fleeing to Boston. That is why it's so crucial to restock. Key trades produce draft picks, and the constant influx of young players that compete for positions means that the Rays don't just sit back waiting for one or two prospects to fully mature. In 2010 alone, the Rays have 4 of the 50 best prospects in baseball.

The Kansas City Royals have an incredible 6 players on the MLB.com's Top 50 list, including two players in the top 10. Mike Moustakas is ranked #7 on the list, and is the upcoming third-baseman for the organization. Moustakas has plus power, as he tied for the minor league homerun lead with 36, and drove in 124 runs. There is also speculation that Mike could turn into a reliable .300 hitter. His glove and range at third are still a question mark, although his arm is a big asset at the position. With former club top prospect Alex Gordon now being moved to the outfield, 3B is Mike's for the taking. Meanwhile, at the other corner of the infield is first-baseman Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer looks like a Royals version of the Dodger's James Loney, who hits around .300, while mixing some speed, power, and a good glove. In about a year or so, these young hitters look to be the cornerstone on which the Royals build a franchise.

The Royals don't just have hitters coming up through the minors, though. They also have lefties Mike Montgomery and John Lamb, who will soon make a splash in the rotation. This illustrates my point, that quantity is as much a key to success as quality. As a general manager, the Royals' Dayton Moore has realized that in order to rebuild, you need more than one brick. So he has taken a page out of the Rays' playbook and build his team up with loads of youngsters. Other teams are trying to try the same approach. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds have 3 prospects in the list. Some teams that aren't represented well on the list, like the Padres (1) and the Athletics (0) do also subscribe to this theory. However, there are times when young talent comes up at the same time, and the presence on this list is diminished. But teams with limited finances, like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, and Cleveland Indians, need to make more of an effort than having one guy on the prospect list.

There are several reason why a constant influx of young players is vital, especially for small-market clubs. Without fresh talent around, the veterans on the team can get lazy, knowing that their job is safe. Young, unproven talent is also very cheap, and under team control, alleviating the need to spend millions every offseason. There is a crucial aspect for the fans as well. No matter how good a player is, when he is bought during free-agency, there is a mercenary feeling toward that player from the fanbase. No matter what he says about the city, the fans, or the history of the club, a player still want to get paid. So for instance, when Adrian Beltre turned down offers from the Athletics and other clubs, only to go to the Rangers because they offered the most money, there is a sense that the paycheck outweighed all other motivations. I'm not trying to be cruel to Beltre, lots and lots of players do this, but it's a little disheartening for fans.

When a stud player comes up through the minors, however, fans tend to get a little more emotionally attached. He becomes 'our guy', a player that fans may have followed through the minors, up into the majors, and onward toward stardom. It's similar in a way to raising a child. When you see a player grow over time, there is an attachment there that free-agency doesn't quite match. So while drafting well, promoting from within, and extending young talent is important to a successful organization, it's also good to keep fans rooting for homegrown stars.

These prospect lists give us outsiders an insight into how a franchise evolves over time. Some clubs, like the Pirates, continue to struggle year after year, because they haven't changed the way things are done enough. Yet even the lowly Pirates have reason to hope as they had several dynamic rookies come up this year in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Young players coming in from the minors, or imported from Japan or South America are crucial to a team's success. If a club doesn't look to youth to invigorate a team every year, stagnation can settle in. And when things stagnate, you have to start throwing out the garbage.

A New York Minute

I try not to focus on the New York metropolitan area too much in my blog. There are already too many reporters and analysts of all types who clog the N.Y. media with ridiculously opinionated stories and worthless bias. While my favorite team is the Mets, the media surrounding them tends to get on my nerves, and thus I try not to shove news about them, or the other New York team down your throat. But seeing as how it's been a little slow around the baseball hot stove recently, and there are two good stories coming out of that area, we shall dedicate this blog to The Big Apple.

The first bit of excitement you probably already heard about, and it's regarding the retirement of one of the best clutch pitchers of this generation. I speak, of course, of Andy Pettitte, and his wonderful 16-year career that came to a close on Thursday. Pettitte finishes his career having pitched 13 years with the New York Yankees, and 3 years with the Houston Astros. He retires with a 240-138 record, which is a staggering .635 winning percentage, and ranks 43rd on the all-time list. While he won 20 games or more just twice, he never had a losing season, and posted a very respectable 3.88 career ERA for his efforts. He also struck out a very hardy 2251 batters over his 16 years. Health and stamina were also a key ingredient to Andy's game as he pitched over 200 innings 10 times, and concluded his time in the league with 3055.1 total innings. But a proper analyst of the man cannot be done until we talk about the postseason.

As writer Ben Nicholson-Smith puts it, "he has 19 wins and a 3.83 ERA in the playoffs", and "is the all-time winningest pitcher in postseason history, ranks first all-time in postseason starts and innings pitched and is tied for second with 173 strikeouts." Wow! Granted, these numbers are due to the fact that the teams he played for only missed the playoffs 3 times in his 16 years, but Pettitte was a major factor in getting those teams there in the first place. If you combine Andy's regular season stamina with his postseason clutch-pitching mastery, you have to rank Andy as one of the best pitchers in the last 25 years. I certainly consider Pettitte a Hall of Famer. However, I don't think he's a lock, simply because I haven't heard that being tossed around. And in baseball, if you don't hear about something, it's usually because there is some doubt surrounding the subject.

Until very recently, the New York Yankees were still hopeful that the 38-year old lefty would come back to the Bronx for one more illustrious year, but apparently the dedicated family man chose to hang up his cleats despite millions that would have come his way for playing in 2011. This is a blow to the Yankees in two ways. First, it leaves the club without a winning, veteran lefty presence in the rotation. That can be fixed with a trade, though. Second, it shows that although the Yankees have a seemingly endless bank account, the franchise no longer has the gravitational force of a black hole when trying to bring in players.

Since they missed out on bringing Cliff Lee in, and Andy Pettitte back, Yankee fans have voices some frustration with the front-office for not reeling in the high-priced talent. And Yankee fans are used to getting the biggest players on the board. To be fair though, the Yankees are still in a very good position to win, make the playoffs and run for the World Series. After all, GM Brian Cashman doesn't simply make a team in winter and sit back. There are lots of moves to be made still

So regardless of what happens to the 2011 N.Y. Yankees, congratulations are in order for Mr. Andy Pettitte on a wonderful career. On a personal note, Pettitte was one of the only Yankee players I would have liked having on the Mets. And speaking of the Mets, let us turn some attention to a little story that's brewing in Queens. For starters, there is some financial drama unfolding for the Metropolitans as owners Wilpon are still stumbling from monetary losses due to the Bernie Madoff scandal. As an excellent October 2009 NBC Sports article put it, "in financial terms the Wilpons could have suffered a huge loss in terms of forgone, legitimate gains, and they may have been making financial decisions based on a radically different position than the one in which they actually found themselves to be once the fraud was discovered."

Regardless of the actually amount the Wilpons lost or never gained, finances have been a huge topic of conversation for the organization for a couple of years now. Not only did the owners of the team get fleeced by a scam artist, which is never good publicity, but the team is also drowning in bad contracts. This issue will be somewhat remedied with time as the pricey contracts of Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Rodriguez are all coming off the books after 2011. But there is more at stake here than just money issues.

The image of the Mets franchise since 2007 has been a blundering mess. After the Mets loss the 2006 NLCS with Beltran's bat on his shoulder, the team never again played up to par. Even though the owners continually threw money at the situation, lackluster management, combined with sloppy play, and continuous injuries plagued the team as they moved from Shea Stadium to Citi Field. There have been a few moments of joy, but for the most part, David Wright has taken a step back in his development regarding strikeouts and fielding. Beltran and Jose Reyes has been hampered by injuries. Perez and Luis Castillo have been wastes of roster spots. The farm team hasn't produced solid, dependable players yet, although I personally believe Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Jon Niese are something to build on. In short, times are tough in New York.

In order to try and fix things now, though, the Wilpon ownership is seeking a minority part-owner who will funnel money into the team, without having a particularly large say in the day-to-day operations. This seems somewhat like a pipe dream, as no respectable businessperson would want to risk millions on a floundering franchise without having a voiced opinion. Perhaps the Wilpons are offering more control then is rumored. As it stands, anyone who comes in is most likely going to murk up an already murky situation, which in these lean times for the franchise and its fans, could be disastrous.

How, you ask? Well image an already beleaguered fanbase having to deal with conflicting ideologies coming from two owner groups. One may want to deal away a young prospect in order to get a veteran presence, while the other many want to do the exact opposite. It's a tricky business involving the passion of baseball with the stench of money. Fred Wilpon, like some other owners, got into the business because he was genuinely a baseball fan. Others sometimes get into it as a way to increase financial holdings and don't really care about the actually game itself. The potential risk of mixing those two tactics on one team is dangerous, and just might be where the Mets are heading.

I hope not, though. I'd rather see the Wilpons maintain control, ride out the last few drops of bad blood that is soaked into the team right now, and start fresh with a plan to make the playoffs in 2014. Not all hope is lost for fans, as there are still some good players on the team, and there's a chance that new manager "Tom" Collins could reinvigorate the current roster. But more likely, the 2011 Mets will falter and be fractured via June/July trades and offseason free-agency. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for the future. It's just tough seeing your favorite sports team having a massive coronary right in front of you.