Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Early Start

Wow, has it been 100 posts already? I know it might seem like it's taken forever to some of you, but I appreciate you sticking with me. What are true friends for! To celebrate my 100th blog post, we're going to analyze a few of the early off-season moves that have been made to date, and maybe, just maybe, we'll get into some good ol' fashion speculation too.

Let's start with one of the weirder things in baseball I've ever seen, and that is a manager essentially being traded. That's right, back in late September, before the World Series and the off-season, Ozzie Guillen asked the Chicago White Sox for a contract extension. That deal never worked out, and so Ozzie being the colorful character that he is, asked for a release of his current contract. He then immediately posted on his website that he would be taking over the Florida Marlins, even before current Marlins interim manager Jack McKeon had a chance to step down. Classy Ozzie. Essentially he was traded for two minor league players when Chicago asked for compensation, so that the always boisterous manager will now take over a Marlins team that has lots of slugging potential, and plenty of pitching, but who's shoddy defense and high expectations always seem to get the better of them. Perhaps a new stadium, along with a new manager will liven things up in Miami.

So who's going to take over in Chicago? Well if you guessed a former Chicago White Sox star player who's never managed a baseball game in his life, you'd be absolutely correct. Robin Ventura, one of the surest hands at third the game has ever seen, and clutch grand slam expert, is now going heading up the baseball strategies on the South Side of Chicago. This comes as a bit of a shock to many since the White Sox are not a team in transition, and could conceivably compete next year. A lot of pressure will rest on Ventura to adjust quickly to this new role, and keep the ship afloat. One thing is for certain, the normally calm Ventura will certainly be a big departure from the theatrical antics Chi-town was used to seeing.

But what is this, the other Chicago team is down a manager as well? All hell is breaking loose in Chicago folks! Not to fear, Theo Epstein is here. Indeed, the former General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, and the man who helped orchestrate the team that broke The Curse of the Bambino, will bring his magic wand to the ill-begotten Chicago Cubs. His first order of business was releasing coach Mike "Total Recall" Quade from his contract, and beginning the search for a new manager. Having successfully rescued Red Sox Nation from the edge of the bridge, Theo was knighted a wunderkind of the baseball business world, and claimed another championship for Boston four years later. With the situation in Boston, um, deteriorating, and with manager Terry Francona jumping ship, it looked like it was time for Epstein to move along as well. He chose the spot where losing is not just possible, it's probable, so theoretically he can do no wrong there since losing would not be a change from the norm. But if he does manage to change things in Chicago and bring home the first championship in over 100 years, sculptors would start on his Hall of Fame bust the very next day. Seriously though, if he could put together a team that won it all after so much ineptitude, and after having done the same thing for the Red Sox, he would go down in baseball history as possibly the greatest GM in history. Oh, and he's not even 40 yet.

There are some other teams finding new GMs this winter as well. The Twins have contracted Terry Ryan to return as an interim GM for 2012 and possibly beyond. Ryan, who was GM from 1994-2007, and has been involved with the organization for almost 30 years, will try to guide this team back to what they do best, finding cheap and productive talent. The big contracts of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have definitely changed things in Minnesota, but perhaps a old/new approach will bring success back to the Twin Cities. The Baltimore Orioles also named Dan Duquette as President of Baseball Operations. The former Boston GM helped lay some of the groundwork for the 2003 Champion Red Sox while he was there from 1994-2002. From a USAToday article, "It was Duquette who acquired Pedro Martinez, drafted the likes of Nomar Garciaparra, Kevin Youkilis and Hanley Ramirez, pulled Tim Wakefield from the scrap pile and effectively swindled Seattle out of Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in a trade that helped change the direction of the Red Sox organization." Duquette will hopefully bring those innovative changes to the gloomy atmosphere in one of baseball's most storied franchises.

The defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals have made quick order of their search for a new skipper, and have settled on former catcher Mike Matheny. Matheny, like Ventura has no managing experience to speak of, but Mike does have one step on Robin. Mike has spent the past two years as a special assistant to the organization, and therefore has a somewhat better understanding of the people involved in and around the game, which is crucial to being a good manager. Matheny seems like an energetic leader who's lack of experience won't keep him awake one minute of the day. Both he and Ventura have their work cut out for them, and each will certainly take a different approach to the job. Much luck to both men has they start their careers in the dugout.

Enough about the guys who don't play a position, though, let's talk some baseball moves! The Philadelphia Phillies have been busy already. First they reclaimed Jim Thome for a one-year deal that will see him do a little glove work at first, and a lot of batting off the bench. This is a good move purely for the fact that Thome was so beloved during his three years in Philly. Then news came out this weekend that the Phils made a huge splash in the free agent pool and locked up closer Jonathan Papelbon for 4 years, $50 million, which is more than any closing pitcher has ever received. Papelbon is a very good pitcher, and had a very good year after his rollercoaster 2010, but $50 million? Before you interject, I'm not second-guessing this move simply because it is the Phillies. I would have been reticent of this signing no matter the team. $12.25 million is a lot of dough to shell out every year for a dude who only ever pitches 65 innings a year. Papelbon can make this deal worth $13 million in 2016 with a performance-based vesting option as well. That $63 million better get a whole lot of saves.

Another big signing has occurred very recently, but this wasn't of the free agent variety. Instead it was an extension offered to Matt Kemp of the L.A. Dodgers for a reported $160 million over 8 years. Kemp had one of the best seasons of recent memory, and stands a very good chance of winning the MVP. The fact that the Dodgers missed the playoffs hurt his chances, but not his wallet. After batting .324, with a NL leading 39 homeruns, 115 runs and 126 RBI, not to mention 40 stolen bases which were tied for second best in the league, Kemp was a shoe-in for receiving a big extension package. I just didn't think it would be quite this big. I must say that this "monster season" was predicted back in March by our good friends over at Mikesciosciastragicillness.com in a lovely blog entitled "Matt Kemp is Going to Destroy Worlds." If you don't believe me, head over there after reading this. And if you don't know what Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness means, then I just feel sorry for you.

Anyway, the nearly 40-40 man will now receive $20 million a season for a very long time. The only concern with this move was where the Dodgers were getting the money. Frank McCourt agreed to sell the team due to his divorce and financial situation, so it was surprising that such a large contract would be tendered during these shenanigans. It goes to show just what a special player Kemp is, though, for an organization in ownership transition to want to hold onto such a valuable commodity. The Dodgers also made a few smaller moves by signing Mark Ellis for second-base, and Matt Treanor for catching duties. It seems like they may be trying to save up some money to lock up their other big name, Clayton Kershaw.

There was even a splashy trade made the other day as the San Francisco Giants sent pitcher Jonathan Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for Melky Cabrera. Sanchez, who is a strikeout machine, fell from his good graces of 2010 by having a very mediocre 2011 which is more characteristic of his overarching career. The lefty seems to lack both control and durability and the Giants had to make room for some of their younger prospects coming through the system. Melky Cabrera had the best year of his career with the Royals, and will hopefully be the Giants everyday centerfielder in 2012, although everyday consistency is not one of Melky's strengths.

Other moves included the Arizona Diamondbacks bringing back Aaron Hill, and Willie Bloomquist; the Pittsburgh Pirates signed catcher Rod Barajas; the San Diego Padres snatched Mark Kotsay, and the Minnesota Twins nabbed Jamey Carroll. So it seems as though some teams are getting an early start on the free agency period that we've come to know and love as the "hot stove." I hope it continues, because I hate waiting for rumors to boil over into stories in December and January. But then again, if everything happens too soon, I'll have nothing left to talk about throughout the winter! Oh wait, I still have to do movie reviews. Until next time.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Moneyball

No, this is not a review of the recent movie starring Brad Pitt for my baseball movie series The Great Debate. Series is a little generous since I only did one. I know, I'm working on it. Instead, I'd like to take a few minutes of your day to talk about the lack of success on the part of teams with high payrolls this year. It seems like a growing trend, and I want to examine it to see if it's just me, or if there really is something there.

Let us look no further than the St. Louis Cardinals. They won the World Series this year with a payroll that is not meek, at roughly $109 million dollars, but which is significantly lower than the money spent by some other clubs; like the New York Yankees ($207 million), Philadelphia Phillies ($166 million), Boston Red Sox ($163 million), New York Mets ($143 million), Los Angeles Angels ($142 million), Chicago Cubs ($134 million). Other teams who spent more than the Cardinals this year include the Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers. The other team in the World Series, the Texas Rangers, had an even lower payroll than the Cardinals, at $92 million, and many would say they were the favorites going into the matchup. What both of these teams were able to accomplish with less money is remarkable, when considering that the Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, White Sox, Twins and Mets didn't even make the playoffs, and that the Phillies and Yankees exited very early in October. But spending money doesn't guarantee a winning season. Injuries, malcontent, and a variety of other factors make teams win and falter. So we can't claim that spending lots of money on player contracts is a bad business move based on one year. Let's look at 2010 then as well.

In 2010, the highest paid team was again the Yankees ($206 million), which should comes as no surprise to anyone. Then there was the Red Sox ($163 million), Cubs ($147 million), the Phillies ($142 million), and Mets ($133 million). The team who won it all that year was the San Francisco Giants, who had a payroll of roughly $98 million, of which $32 million was taken up by Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand's contracts, two guys who contributions to that championship were minimal at best. So two years in a row, a team with a medium sized payroll has won the World Series. Ah, but Patrick, you are saying to yourself right now, aren't you forgetting that those same high spending Yankees won the World Series in 2009?!

No sports fans, I did not forget. It is true that the Yanks won the title in 2009 with a payroll of $201 million, a good $50 million above the next highest spending team, the Mets, who spent $149 million to miss the playoffs. But that is exactly where I think this new spending pattern is getting it's misinformation from. You see, the Yankees spend a lot of money every year. Obviously they can't win the championship every season, although lord knows they try their damnedest. The theory that has come out of places like New York over the past decade is that spending money doesn't matter, as long as it results in a title once in a while. The potential financial benefits from winning a championship once every few years would then outweigh the cost of funding a ridiculously expensive team every year. But that idea is flawed.

If you look at the money the Yankees spent from their last World Series in 2000, to their most recent one in 2009, they spent about $1,686,000,000 to win two championships. That is almost the same amount Forbes magazine valued the club at in March of this year. If you look at the St. Louis Cardinals as a comparison, they spent $571 million from 2006 to 2011, and also won two championships. That is even more than the $518 million the club was valued at in March, but it took the Cardinals 4 less years to reach the same amount of titles. The theory with spending lots of money on an eventual title also claims that you are building a brand with the spending, thus creating even more revenue when you do win it all. But look no further than the Yankees to see that this doesn't always work.

The Yankees have always spent money freely while the Steinbrenner family has owned them. But their greatest success and brand building under that ownership came in the 1990s, when an influx of young talent came up through the farm system, and smart free agents were brought in to bolster the roster. Since 1994, the Yankees have been outspent once, and between '94, and 2000, their payroll went up almost $66 million, well more than double the '94 payroll of $47 million. The problem with this was that the money being spent wasn't the primary reason they kept winning. They had a core of young Hall of Fame talent, the spending just made sure those guys had the surrounding staff. What this led to was higher and higher competition prices by other teams in order to keep up with a team that was hitting the jackpot with young talent. When that talent starting to show its age in the earliest parts of the 21st century, the maintenance cost of trying to keep the team competitive rose even higher, because the core young guys were getting old. Now the money was being spent trying to outspend other teams for the best possible players, which the Yankees often got. However, the end result wasn't the same.

The 2000 season was a landmark year for baseball for many reasons, but one of the most glaring facts was that it was the first time in history that a team spent over $100 million for a roster of players. That year the Yankees spent $113 million, and it was the last year of the effective dynasty the Yankees had over baseball. The very next year, three teams had payrolls of $100 million or more. In 2002, four teams. In 2011, there were 12 teams with payrolls of at least $100 million, and the Yankees in particular doubled that. See the pattern? Now there are other issues that played into this system of overspending, like inflation, and an economy that ran away with itself headlong into a brick wall in 2008. But there is a good portion of this type of overindulgence that wasn't necessary. A lot of commentators thought that the cost of player salaries would take a dive after the Great Recession, but contrary to that idea, players kept asking and owners kept paying.

Ever since Alex Rodriguez got paid $25 million a season in 2001 by the Texas Rangers, all hell broke loose. Salaries from 2001 on skyrocketed and contracts were forced to extend in length to meet the new needs of players, and to make these astronomical deals more affordable over a period of time. We are at the point now where one of the best pitchers in the game, C.C. Sabathia, actually opted out of his contract that was paying him $23 million a season, because he thought he could get more money. And he did! There was almost no other suitor that could possibly pay him what he was asking, essentially putting the Yankees in a bidding war with themselves, and they signed him the other day to an extension that gave him an extra year on his contract, and another $30 million over the course of the deal, making him now earn about $25 million until 2016. Do you see the ridiculous nature of the baseball business world right now?

This all goes back to my original point that the cost of putting together a team is actually outweighing the benefits of winning a championship. At the rate the Yankees, Red Sox, and other teams spend money now, they are forced to win a title every year, just to make ends meet. The problem is, they aren't winning. The Red Sox's last took home the Commissioner's Trophy in 2007, and since have raised their payroll by over $20 million. For their efforts, they have missed out on the playoffs for the past two years, ending this season in the greatest American League September collapse in history. The Phillies won it all in 2008, with a payroll of $98 million. Since, they have increased their payroll by $68 million dollars and have finished worse in the playoffs every year. This financial environment is forcing these smart teams to make dumb deals that sign guys to horrendous contracts that don't make any sense. Albert Pujols stands a good chance of earning $30 million a season for the rest of his career. Now, Albert might be one of the greatest hitters to ever put on a uniform, but when he is 40 years old, I can guarantee you he will not be putting up statistics worth $30 million a year. That is, unless, by that time guys are earning triple that. You see the inherent problem with this type of payroll inflation?

I know I've railed against big contracts many times before, but it's getting to the point where it is hurting the team. The Yankees were a good team this year, but they had some obvious flaws, and their top players are quickly showing signs of age. With a $200 million roster and holes to fill, the next few seasons could see this team's salary jump to $250 million and still not be much better. The Red Sox went out and spent a combined $296 million on Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford last year, and missed playing in October because of it. It doesn't make sense. Now these guys are great players, but if I can get another guy who will provide 60%-70% of their production for 10-20%% of the cost, guess what I'm doing.

This issue is extremely relevant because the upcoming free-agent class has some stupendous talent. You have Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Frank Francisco, San Francisco, Fransisco Goya, and anything else named Francisco you could possibly think of. Not to mention a huge list of very capable players that won't cost you an arm and a leg to sign. This off-season is going to be interesting because smart teams should start to notice that high priced talent isn't always the best bet. Moneyball has been somewhat effective for Billy Beane in Oakland, even though he's never won a championship. If teams start applying their vast dollars in the right places instead of showering big names with Benjamin Franklin, then the parity in the league may turn around very quickly. If they don't, look forward to a $300 million team in the next decade. And I'm just going to take a wild guess that the team name will start with a Y.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

High Note

It must be said, and I don't know anyone who can argue this point, that the 2011 World Series was one of the best in years. It had the drama of the Texas Rangers having never won a championship, mixed with the possibility of this being Albert Pujols last ride as a St. Louis Cardinal. Not to mention, the games themselves were outstanding, especially an epic Game 6 walk-off, extra-innings bout that left the viewer drained. There were bullpen moves aplenty, an historic night for King Albert, more memorable moments by Nelson Cruz and David Freese, and it culminated in the final game that encapsulated one hell of a season.

Now that the St. Louis Cardinals are officially the 2011 World Series Champions, everyone is looking towards 2012. Some players may take time off during the winter, but many are playing ball in other leagues around the world, staying in shape, and building up value that translates to mega dollars. The front office people especially, aren't taking a break, as this is the time where deals are made and franchises are reborn. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, this is one of my favorite times of the baseball year.

It is also a time to take stock, though. Some individuals look at past achievements and either want more, or decided that enough is enough. Retirement is a tough thing. Ideally it means you are never coming back, but there are lots of guys who realized later on that they missed the game and came back for one more ride. More often than not, this doesn't end well. However, I think that Anthony La Russa has really put some time into his decision when he came out on Monday and said he was retiring from the game of baseball, thus ending one of the best careers the game has ever seen.

I don't know if this comes as a shock to you or not, but it certainly did to me. Those who are close to Mr. La Russa noticed that this postseason was different for the stoic manager, as I've heard repeatedly that he seemed to stop and appreciate the surroundings of this epic game. He appeared lighter and happier than usual as he finished off the regular season in a flurry of resurgence, and finally winning the World Series when almost no one expected they would. According to baseball insiders, this lighthearted version of La Russa was due to the fact that he had informed the Cardinals front office in August that he was retiring after the 2011 campaign.

This adds dramatic undertones to the World Series that history will certainly overindulge in. I can see the slow-motion video now of La Russa running up the dugout steps as a deep voiced commentator tells the story of how La Russa knew this was it, as the game unfolded on the grass. That is of course, overblown, but that's how history likes to remember things. Regardless of how this postseason plays out in stories down the line, La Russa will always be remembered as one of the greatest men to ever manage the game of baseball.

In case you hadn't realized, Tony was a manager for 33 years. He started with the Chicago White Sox in 1978, and stayed there for 8 years. He then moved on to the Oakland Athletics, where he stayed until 1995, and won a World Series title in 1989. In 1996 he took over the St. Louis Cardinals and won two more championships, in 2006 and again this year. In doing so, Tony became only the second manager to win a World Series in both the American and National Leagues. The first was legendary manager Sparky Anderson. Oh, and did I mention that Tony also was voted Manager of the Year in 1983, 1988, 1992, and in 2002?

Over the course of the 33 years in which he was almost never out of work, La Russa collected 2728 wins, which is third all-time. Can you fathom that? Throughout the vast history of the game of baseball, Tony was able to win more games than almost every other manager the game as ever seen. Great managers like Casey Stengel, Tommy Lasorda, and Bobby Cox were not able to achieve the same success that La Russa did. La Russa won by being a smart guy in a very complex game. That's not to say those others managers weren't smart, but La Russa brought something new to the game. He micro-managed.

You can love this style or hate it, and sometimes I do both, but La Russa went over the game with a fine-tooth comb day in and day out. He analyzed the statistics and calculated the odds of right-lefty matchups almost to an irritating stage. He helped pioneer sabermetrics in a way by refining what it meant to manage the game. No position in the game reflexed this more than the way Tony managed his bullpens. Relievers have always been a finicky bunch, but Tony gave the bullpen roles and helped create the modern closer position. When guys had a specific role, the theory goes, they would be able to focus on one job, and thus be more effective. This was evident time and time again as Tony would constantly switch in one guy over another to give his team the slightest edge in winning a game or series. He did so in the past, and again this year, as he made more bullpen moves in this postseason than any manager before.

Tony was not lovable by any stretch of the imagination. He almost got into a fistfight on-field with Buck Showalter in 1992, he was arrested for drunk driving while asleep at a red light in Florida in 2007, and he has been depicted as a curmudgeon for most of his professional career. But smart people are often despised by the outside world, because they see things differently. I certainly can't see into Tony's psyche, but I honestly believe that for the most part, he didn't care what other people thought of him. As long as he could help his club win, that was his main concern, and that's what he did consistently. It's wonderful that such an important part of baseball history gets to end his career on the highest of notes. I wish the best of congratulations to Tony La Russa and the rest of the St. Louis Cardinals. Enjoy retirement Tony.

This now begs the question of what will St. Louis do for next season. And thus the off-season begins. Who will manage the club? Will Pujols be back? Will Adam Wainwright recover from his Tommy John surgery? Who else is coming back to the roster? It's not so frequent that a team that just won the World Series would have so many questions immediately following. If the Cards resign Albert, and perhaps get somebody like Terry Francona to replace La Russa, maybe this team won't miss a step. However, if Albert leaves, and a new manager doesn't do so well, the defending champs next year could have a terrible dropoff. Then again, almost no one predicted the Cardinals would win this year, so what do we all know about anything?

The point is, everything starts anew. The city of St. Louis can take some time to celebrate its 11th Championship, but in 29 other cities people are busy buying and selling, mixing and matching, and tried to come up with that perfect recipe that will deliver them a title next year. There is plenty of talent out there that will soon find a new uniform. The everlasting question is, how will it all pan out? I hope you get excited by this stuff as much as I do. If not, well then I guess I'll see you in April. Until then, let the rumor mill start.