Today I'm excited because it's draft day for my 12-team fantasy league. I unfortunately won't be able to attend, however, because I have theater rehearsal. So I leave my team in the capable hands of my brother, who will draft for me. What relevance does this have for our Prediction Special, you may ask? For starters neither I, nor my brother for me, are going to draft Adam Wainwright for my team this year, and I'm pretty bummed about that.
Wainwright has been one of my favorite pitchers of the past few years due to his dominance of the National League and his laid-back demeanor. Over the past three years he has the second-best ERA in all of baseball, and he's finished second and third in the past two Cy Young votes. He has become the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals staff over the past two years and has collected 39 wins in that span. So I would be insane not to try and draft him. Except that during Spring Training he ruptured a tendon in his right arm, requiring Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2011 year and will make it difficult for him to contribute for a full 2012 season. Thus we start our National League Central Division discussion with things being thrown out of whack.
Had Wainwright not suffered his injury, the St. Louis Cardinals would have been a lot of people's favorite to win the National League Central, as they have been for a few years now. But with the ace of the staff now sidelined, remaining ace Chris Carpenter dealing with some minor injuries, not to mention the media circus surrounding Albert Pujols and his contract talks, the Cardinals are instead reeling and looking extremely beatable. Not that they even won the division last year. Let's not forget that the Cardinals played terrible baseball against mediocre teams late in the season, and brought upon their own downfall, which paved the way for the Cincinnati Reds to take the NL Central for the first time in 15 years. Throw in two American League pitchers to a team not known for its pitching, and this division is all sorts of screwy.
Let's begin our full discussion with the Cardinals, as we've already laid the groundwork on them. Wainwright is gone, Carpenter is hurt, Pujols might struggle with media/contract pressure, (although that seems highly unlikely) and the bullpen looks a bit weaker if Kyle McClellan has to move into the rotation. So the Cardinals have a lot going against them. Hold on a second though, this team has Albert Pujols for crying out loud, the best player in baseball. They also have Matt Holliday who is a dynamite hitter, young studs Colby Rasmus and John Jay, probably the best catcher in the game in Yadier Molina, a pretty solid rotation with Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse backing up Carpenter, and they still have one of the best managers ever to put on a uniform in Tony La Russa. They even nabbed Lance Berkman off the market, who could make an impact if healthy. So even though this team is going through some pains right now, they still have plenty of talent to remain competitive in the Central. The question is, will competitive be enough to actually win the division in 2011?
Hoping that the answer is no, are the Cincinnati Reds, who took the division last year. The Reds are led by young, talented pitching consisting of Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake. There are also wily veterans Bronson Arroyo who had a career-high 17 wins in '10, and Francisco Cordero saving games at the end of games. Flame-thrower Arolids Chapman may try and surmount Cordero this year as the Reds' closer, but until that happens he will be used as a nearly unstoppable setup man. The rest of the bullpen is a little young, so there is a slight worry about them living up to the challenge, but a potent offense might help alleviate some of that pressure.
That offense is led by reigning NL MVP Joey Votto and his excellent power/average combo strength. The rest of the infield has lots of experience and pop with Brandon Phillips manning second, Edgar Renteria playing short, and Scott Rolen patrolling the hot corner. The younth movement lies in the outfield, as Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs look to add a combined 40-50 homeruns to the offensive-minded Reds in '11. With a successful combination of youth and experience, pitching and power, the Reds are looking strong to repeat in the coming year.
Newly brewed Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum might have something to say about that, as they look to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to the promising land in first place of the Central this year. Yovani Gallardo is the forgotten man in this rotation and is a great pitcher in his own right. With Greinke, Marcum and Randy Wolf providing help this year, this rotation is maybe the best improved in all of baseball. LaTroy Hawkins should come back healthy this year, Takashi Saito will add some sage wisdom, and John Axford will continue to close out games in the bullpen. For all the improvements in pitching, though, the Brewers are still going to mash their way to victory.
Led by Prince Fielder who is in a contract year, Milwaukee is going to hit and hit often. Ryan Braun may be the best hitting outfielder in the game, and his fielding has improved drastically to boot. Casey McGehee is vastly unappreciated over at third, and Rickie Weeks is a stellar table-setter, when healthy. Sprinkle in a deep catching position, speed in Carlos Gomez, a steady average in SS Yuniesky Betancourt, and some additional pop in Corey Hart, and this team is dangerous to just about everybody in the National League. The pitching will have to hold up their end of the bargain, which has been difficult in the past. While the new blood might change that around, are the Brewers the team to beat this year in the NL Central?
The Pirates and Astros probably won't have too much to say about it either way. The Pirates have a new skipper in Clint Hurdle, but once again failed to make any kind of splash in free-agency. Finally some young everyday players are developing; Pedro Alvarez at 3B, Jose Tabata in the outfield, Neil Walker at second and the elite speedster Andrew McCutchen in center. But even if all four have fantastic stat lines in 2011, the team isn't going anywhere anytime soon because they have no pitching. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but no matter how many Olsens the team acquires, whether it's Scott Olsen, Garret Olsen, or the Olsen twins, they aren't going to make this rotation a success. Ross Ohlendorf and his two victories last year (if you count his arbitration salary increase) is very mediocre, Paul Maholm is adequate as a number 5 at best, and James McDonald is still too raw of a pitcher to be anything like a number one guy. It's sad to say, especially for such an historic franchise, but it looks like several more years of losing streak coming to Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile the Astros of Houston are in a somewhat different boat. They had been mostly competitive in the Central for the past ten years, even making a World Series appearance. But with aging stars, and big burdensome contracts in place, the team had to switch gears and get younger quick. The last of the Killer B's Lance Berkman was shipped off, as was long-time ace Roy Oswalt. This year will most likely see Carlos Lee going somewhere else too, if the Astros are willing to eat his contract. Unlike the Pirates though, Houston is tying to get back on track. They acquired young lefty J.A. Happ to assist Brett Myers, Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez in the rotation. They have nurtured Hunter Pence into an all-around good player. Michael Bourn is a bag-stealing machine. They even have some talent emerging with infielders Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson. But when you put all the external pieces together, like Bill Hall, Brandon Lyon, Clint Barmes and Jason Michaels, this team is still a bit too much of a hodge podge to be competitive any time in the very near future.
Now I seem to be forgetting a franchise. Who could it be? Oh, right the Chicago Cubs! What can I say about this team? Are they coming or going, buying or selling, riding the crazy train, or simply visiting the ward? I quite frankly have no idea. They are one of the most expensive teams in baseball, and have very little to show for it. They are dysfunctional on a primal level and appear to have some of the biggest egos and maladjusted tempers of any team in sports. But let's forget all that for a second and look at the team on paper.
In theory, the pitching should be a strength. Ryan Dempster is as solid as solid gets. Matt Garza did extremely well against the AL, so logic states he should do well against the NL. Carlos Zambrano is an elite pitcher when sane, and Carlos Silva can sometimes be great. Aramis Ramirez is one of the best third-basemen in the game, and should be coming back healthy in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a terrific talent in the bullpen. Geovanny Soto is a very good catcher. Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin are up-and-coming studs while newcomer Carlos Pena could mash a ton of balls out of Wrigley this season. But now toss the paper away and look at reality. Zambrano is a nutcase that could lose it at any minute and apparently Silva isn't far behind. Garza seems to have a bad attitude at times as well. Pena could hit 40 dingers, but could also have a .140 average if not careful. Marmol is erratic and needs time to find control. Meanwhile, outfielders Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano have both been disappointments for their price tags since coming over. The team is a high-priced mess and while there is potential at times, you can't count on this team coexisting well enough for a full season to anticipate anything but a third or fourth place finish in the NL Central. Sorry Cub fans, but not this year.
So it boils down to three out of six teams who will compete for the NL Central crown. The Cardinals, Reds or Brewers? The Cards are suffering right now, but have been at or near the top of the division for more than a decade and will probably be competitive through sheer willpower alone. The Brewers are new and improved, but have big question marks in Weeks' health, Fielder's staying or going, and Greinke returning to 2009 form. Meanwhile the Reds haven't changed much since last year and that might prove the best move of all.
Cincinnati still has the power, the pitching and in my opinion, the consistency to win the division more than the other teams. It is strue that they really don't have a stopper ace. What they do have are lots of excellent parts that seem to blend well together like working cogs. Almost as if they were some sort of big red machine. That machine will keep rolling in 2011 as the Cincinnati Reds are my pick to take the NL Central crown.
Stay tuned as we wrap up the divisional part of our 2nd Annual Prediction Special next time. But don't forget about the Wild Card Edition, where we sum everything up, and pick some final winners that will go on to the 2011 World Series! As far as I can tell in March, anyway.
No comments:
Post a Comment