As I did last year, I'm going to do a run down of my picks for the division champs in 2011 before approaching the Wild Card discussion. But first let's take a look back at my predictions from last year. In the American League I chose the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels to take the divisions, while I had the Boston Red Sox finishing as the Wild Card winner. I got absolutely zero predictions right. Over in the National League I guessed that the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies would take their respective divisions and the Los Angeles Dodgers would take the Wild Card. I did a little bit better by getting one division correct. Geez, do I know anything about baseball?
The answer is yes, and that's why my predictions are going to be rock solid in 2011. Confidence breeds winners, or so I'm told, and I don't intend a repeat of my befuddled prognostications. Let's do a quick recap of my 2nd Annual Prediction Special, first. In the American League I have the Boston Red Sox winning the East, the Detroit Tigers taking the Central, and the Oakland Athletics as my surprise pick to rise atop the West. Over in the National League I have the Philadelphia Phillies owning the East again, the Cincinnati Reds renewing their ownership of the Central, and the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants defending a West crown. While I have all new teams winning in the American League, I'm staying with 2010's winners in the National League. This discussion is about the Wild Card though, so without further hesitation, let's get down to who will win that last spot for October baseball.
The AL is chock full of talented teams. Many will find it hard to believe that I didn't pick the Yankees or Texas Rangers to win their divisions, but that's how I roll. I'm unpredictable. As I see it though, there are are several teams to go along with the Yanks and Rangers who will fight for the Wild Card. I see the Minnesota Twins putting up a good fight. The White Sox will also be a major player late. A revitalized Los Angeles Angels team could return to form just in time to steal a spot in the post-season. Even the Tampa Bay Rays have a good shot to try and make the playoffs, although a repeat division win is highly unlikely. Do any of these teams have a strength over their opposition?
As I see it, both Texas and Chicago have enough offense to lay ruin to other teams. However, the hesitation lies in their pitching as Texas is without a dominant ace, and Chicago's rotation while good, doesn't match up with some of the more complete pitching teams in the league. Then there are the Yankees and Rays, who both seemingly have better pitching, although the Rays have a completely rebuild and questionable bullpen, and the Yankees are suspect in the rotation after Sabathia. Phil Hughes made a huge jump in innings, which institutes the dreaded Verducci-effect. Not sure what that is? In short it means don't double a man's pitch count from one year to the next. Meanwhile A.J. Burnett is trying to recover from a terrible year, and Freddy Garcia is the 4th guy.
Who takes the Wild Card after all is said and done? Well I have to go with experience, and no one has more experience than the New York Yankees. While I think Texas, Chicago, LA, Minnesota and Tampa all have good teams, New York has a titanic lineup, and if Alex Rodriguez returns to full health in 2011, he could have a monster year. I know they are getting a little long in the tooth, and this could be the year things start to slip away from the Yanks. However, I think they know how to win when it matters, and they will push past the other teams vying for the Wild Card.
Now over to the NL where I left the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, LA Dodgers and others without baseball to play in the fall. One of these teams is going to make it through, but which one? Atlanta has a fantastic rotation, a great bullpen, and added "His Name is" Dan Uggla in the off-season. The Cards may have lost ace Adam Wainwright, but they still have Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, and many other solid pieces. The Brewers are looking strong with a revitalized rotation, even if Zach Greinke will sit out for a spell with a rib injury.
In the West the Dodgers have a good rotation of their own, but there are questions whether Matt Kemp will progress or regress, and whether Andre Either is going to be sticking with the team for much longer. Not to mention Jonathan Broxton possibly losing the closer's role. The Rockies have a mashing offense led by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but the pitching past Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge Del La Rosa is sketchy. Even San Diego won 90 games last year, but with Adrian Gonzalez gone, and Mat Latos a little banged up, 90 games will be vastly difficult to reproduce.
Once the season starts and teams start beating on each other I think the favorite to win out will be the St. Louis Cardinals. They still have a legit ace in Carpenter. Also, Kyle McClellan has been absolutely stellar this spring, leading me to believe that he will at least be sufficient in picking up the slack of the Wainwright loss. All the other pieces are veterans who know how to win, and with Tony La Russa at the helm the Cardinals won't scuffle against losing teams the way they did last year. They will push past the Brewers in the Central and will just beat out the Braves for the NL Wild Card.
We are going to go even deeper into the prediction pit this year, though. I'm going to take a whack at predicting two major awards in 2011; the Cy Young and MVP winners. As I mentioned in my application to the MLB Dream Job, I have two somewhat unorthodox picks for the MVP award winners. I think that Joey Votto stands a good chance of repeating as Most Valuable Player because he uses all fields to his advantage, he plays in a bandbox park half the year, and he's a high-average hitter. Meanwhile Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce stand to have breakout years around him, meaning that Votto could collect 100 RBI simply by accident.
Over in the AL I have Adrian Gonzalez taking the MVP crown home, and I'll tell you why. The man has been a consistent 30-40 homerun presence while playing in one of the most expansive parks in the game. Not only that, but when he visited teams in his old division, he was still playing in Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park and Coors Field, all massive ball parks designed to keep balls in play. Now I know he's coming off of shoulder surgery, but with 81 games at Fenway, I can only imagine that A-Gone will rake 20-25 dingers at his new home field alone. Add on to that a non-stop lineup before and after him, and you are looking at an RBI machine.
While I have RBIs leading the way to MVP glory in 2011, I think wins will see a return to prominence for the Cy Young contenders. Some were irked by Felix Hernandez's Cy Young win while only having 13 wins. I don't see Felix achieving many more than 13 this year, nor his total dominance in every other category in 2011. So wins will be a premium again. Who stands a chance to collect a lot of wins? How about Jon Lester for one. He already won 19 games last year, and with an even more improved lineup behind him, he could top 20 wins by August. His command is impeccable, and his stuff is electric. Look for Lester to have a huge year up in Boston. Comparably, I think that Roy Halladay will collect a vaulted amount of wins in the East. The Phils are hurting with Chase Utley, Dominic Brown and Brad Lidge all injured. However, Halladay has proven time and again that all he needs to win is a run or two at his back, and he'll take care of the rest. 18-20 wins is extremely feasible for the Good Doctor in 2011, and with a low ERA and high K rate again, he will stand alone as the NL Cy Young winner.
I'm glad I got all this mind bending in before the start of the season. I hope you enjoyed reading another years' worth of me spouting things I think I know. Can you believe it, the 2011 Major League Baseball season is almost upon us! It's been a long winter, and we're still expected to get snow incredibly, but it's already summer in my head when I see hear those sweet, sweet words: "Play ball!"
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 6 of 6
It has come down to this, folks. We are in the final fews days of Spring Training, which means the 2011 baseball season is almost upon us. I have been extra busy the past two weeks, so I'm cutting it close getting these predictions in before the first meaningful games are played, but I still have time. So without further ado, let us begin the final divisional prediction for the 2011 calendar year.
We are obviously going to cover the American League Central for this post, as we've already dispensed some knowledge about the other five divisions. A solid argument can be made that the AL Central is the best division in baseball, as it continues to foster healthy rivalries between the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers. And while the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians have been on the skids for the past couple of years, both teams have young talent coming up through their systems. The Indians might still be a few years from competition, but the Royals are looking like they may have some say in the division sooner rather than later.
However, another valid discussion could also take place stating that this is probably the most disappointing division in baseball. Why do you ask? Well, for all the immense talent within the rank and file, the AL Central hasn't been making a good showing of late when it really matters; in the playoffs. To vent my frustration and to begin our prediction post, let us sound off with the reigning Central champs, the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are a wonderful organization that engenders competitive play, while stimulating a sense of sportsmanship, hard work and integrity. They are renown as being one of the better and most consistent clubs for fostering young, home-grown talent like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They have had lots of regular season success in the recent past, winning 6 division championships since 2002. The story changes when the post-season begins, as the Twins haven't won a playoff game in their past three appearances, and have repeatedly failed to do anything against the New York Yankees. Will 2011 be the year this turns around for Minnesota?
They have a lot of the right elements to make this possible. Their starters including the resigned Carl Pavano and Comeback Player of the Year Francisco Liriano, leading a very capable staff of Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn. One man will be sent to the bullpen, which should help eat some innings as Joe Nathan returns from Tommy John surgery, and Matt Capps readjusts to an 8th inning role. A return to health for young lefty Jose Mijares could be critical as well. The Twins are certainly not a team without pop, though.
Justin Morneau is a big bopper, but is still a little slow to recover from the concussion he suffered last year. The club is smart to make sure he's ready later rather than sooner as you never want to mess with a concussion injury. There's also the ever-youthful Jim Thome, who smacked a dubious 25 dingers last year and looks to improve on those numbers as the primary DH. Delmon Young showed off some power by smacking 21 bombs last year as well. Joe Mauer had a down year in power, but some says that was just him suffering from the new Target Field's dimensions. I personally believe that Mauer should not aim for power and instead keep to his outstanding high-average hitting. Fifteen homers is all anybody should expect. The team also has potential impact players in Danny Valencia and new import Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins look tough to beat again, but other teams in the division have upped the ante.
The Chicago White Sox were the 2005 World Series Champs, but have only one playoff win since. Chicago is trying to return to the post-season by rearming. They brought back beloved veterans Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski back, but they also signed The Big Donkey Adam Dunn to be the everyday DH, the position he was born to play. The Pale Sox have a trio of dynamite outfielders in Juan Pierre and his career-high 68 stolen bases in 2010; Alex Rios who combines speed, power and agility; and Carlos Quentin who when fully healthy can compete with the big mashers of the American League. The infield consists of two key young men in Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel who will man second and third respectively. Look for them to add some pop to this lineup.
Things aren't completely rosy for the South Siders as they lost closer Bobby Jenks this off-season, and traded away Daniel Hudson to Arizona late last year. Picking up the slack in the 'pen will be the extreme talents of Matt Thornton, Chris Sales and Sergio Santos. The rotation is strong, but not overbearing as Jake Peavy remains far from 100%, and Edwin Jackson is hit or miss. Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd should all remain reliable, though. In the end, will the big bats overcome some of the weaknesses of the pitching?
Possibly overtaking both teams is the Detroit Tigers. They made it all the way to the World Series in 2006, but haven't been back to the playoffs since. Don't sleep on the Tigers, though, as they have one of the most potent offensive players in the game today in Miguel Cabrera. He is still dealing with off-the-field issues, but when the man is right he is nearly unstoppable, so look for the Tigers organization to do everything within their power to help this young man sort out his personal demons.
Aiding Miguel on the diamond is new acquisition Victor Martinez who will play a little catcher, 1B and DH. The rest of the infield has veteran stability in Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen. The youth movement is in the outfield as Austin Jackson impressed everyone with his high-average lead-off ability, and Brandon Boesch raked at the beginning of the season, but sputtered late. Boesch will now take a seat behind Ryan Raburn in left, but look for Boesch either to take over for Raburn or Magglio Ordonez in right in the near future.
The rotation is even more of a strength than the lineup card. Justin Verlander leads the arms as the clear ace, but Max Scherzer is getting tons of hype as being heir-apparent, despite having a terrible spring. Backing up those two are converted reliever Phil Coke, constant work in progress Brad Penny, and Rick Porcello who's looking to replicate '09 rather than '10. The bullpen is also a major asset as Jose Valverde continues to be a quality closer, Joel Zumaya tries to stay healthy for all of 2011, and new signing Joaquin Benoit will compete as the set-up man. All in all, the Tigers look to be a major player in the proceedings of the AL Central in 2011.
As I mentioned at the top, the Royals and Indians don't have much hope for the post-season this year, so both squads are looking to future days instead. The Royals have one of the most lauded farm systems in either league as they have 6 of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. With a nice diversity of pitchers and position players, these young Royals could become a major factor in the Central in the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile the Indians are finding their own youthful path to the promised land. The only player to make the Top 50 for the Indians this year was Lonnie Chisenhall, the second-best third-baseman on the list. But there are plenty of other prospects in the system, including second-baseman Jason Kipnis and righty Alex White. Side them with Carlos Santana, and Brantley, two Indians who made the Top 50 last year, and this team is moving in the right direction.
For 2011 though, both the Royals and Indians will probably see what stud players they do have being traded away for even more prospects or draft picks. The Royals already parted ways with Zach Greinke in the off-season, and Cleveland could do the same with big name players like Fausto Carmona or Shin-Soo Choo this year, although that remains unlikely. Both teams signed veteran trade-bait like reliever Chad Durbin and outfielder Melky Cabrera, guys that will most likely fetch a nice price come late June when winning teams are searching for missing pieces. Look for both Kansas City and Cleveland to put up the good fight this year, but ultimately in losing/rebuilding efforts. Neither team is very far away from success, so look for these young players to make an impact, possibly even late this year.
Which means that the AL Central Champion in 2011 will be one of the first three teams we discussed. Do the Twins have enough bop in the bats to do some damage against the other two? Does Chicago have the right combination of power and pitching? Will the Tigers need PETA to come rescue them? All jokes aside, this is an extremely tight race, and one that should provide wonderfully played games for fans of the Central teams. The White Sox have some pitching questions that don't sit well with my inner voice. Meanwhile the Twins are always super competitive, but with Morneau and Nathan still recovering, I just don't know if I trust this team to stay hot, even though they always find a way.
In the end though, I think I have to put my money on the Detroit Tigers. I have heard nothing but excellence coming from the Scherzer story, and I believe Porcello can recapture some of his '09 glory. Verlander should get some Cy Young love this year as he is always a force, but never gets the recognition. Cabrera and Martinez will undoubtedly rake, and should have enough offensive help to lead the team to victory.
As with all my predictions, this is just a guess. It's appropriate to wrap up the divisional section of my Prediction Special with probably my least confident pick. I think the Tigers will win, but I definitely don't put them in the same class of divisional dominance as I would the Phillies or Red Sox. If the Tigers do make me a soothsayer, they will do it with an almost assuredly small margin of victory. Those close wins are what make the game so great, in my opinion, and I look to enjoy many of them this year.
Please stay tuned for the final Wild Card part of the Prediction Special and for the beginning of the season. Until next time.
We are obviously going to cover the American League Central for this post, as we've already dispensed some knowledge about the other five divisions. A solid argument can be made that the AL Central is the best division in baseball, as it continues to foster healthy rivalries between the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers. And while the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians have been on the skids for the past couple of years, both teams have young talent coming up through their systems. The Indians might still be a few years from competition, but the Royals are looking like they may have some say in the division sooner rather than later.
However, another valid discussion could also take place stating that this is probably the most disappointing division in baseball. Why do you ask? Well, for all the immense talent within the rank and file, the AL Central hasn't been making a good showing of late when it really matters; in the playoffs. To vent my frustration and to begin our prediction post, let us sound off with the reigning Central champs, the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are a wonderful organization that engenders competitive play, while stimulating a sense of sportsmanship, hard work and integrity. They are renown as being one of the better and most consistent clubs for fostering young, home-grown talent like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They have had lots of regular season success in the recent past, winning 6 division championships since 2002. The story changes when the post-season begins, as the Twins haven't won a playoff game in their past three appearances, and have repeatedly failed to do anything against the New York Yankees. Will 2011 be the year this turns around for Minnesota?
They have a lot of the right elements to make this possible. Their starters including the resigned Carl Pavano and Comeback Player of the Year Francisco Liriano, leading a very capable staff of Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn. One man will be sent to the bullpen, which should help eat some innings as Joe Nathan returns from Tommy John surgery, and Matt Capps readjusts to an 8th inning role. A return to health for young lefty Jose Mijares could be critical as well. The Twins are certainly not a team without pop, though.
Justin Morneau is a big bopper, but is still a little slow to recover from the concussion he suffered last year. The club is smart to make sure he's ready later rather than sooner as you never want to mess with a concussion injury. There's also the ever-youthful Jim Thome, who smacked a dubious 25 dingers last year and looks to improve on those numbers as the primary DH. Delmon Young showed off some power by smacking 21 bombs last year as well. Joe Mauer had a down year in power, but some says that was just him suffering from the new Target Field's dimensions. I personally believe that Mauer should not aim for power and instead keep to his outstanding high-average hitting. Fifteen homers is all anybody should expect. The team also has potential impact players in Danny Valencia and new import Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins look tough to beat again, but other teams in the division have upped the ante.
The Chicago White Sox were the 2005 World Series Champs, but have only one playoff win since. Chicago is trying to return to the post-season by rearming. They brought back beloved veterans Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski back, but they also signed The Big Donkey Adam Dunn to be the everyday DH, the position he was born to play. The Pale Sox have a trio of dynamite outfielders in Juan Pierre and his career-high 68 stolen bases in 2010; Alex Rios who combines speed, power and agility; and Carlos Quentin who when fully healthy can compete with the big mashers of the American League. The infield consists of two key young men in Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel who will man second and third respectively. Look for them to add some pop to this lineup.
Things aren't completely rosy for the South Siders as they lost closer Bobby Jenks this off-season, and traded away Daniel Hudson to Arizona late last year. Picking up the slack in the 'pen will be the extreme talents of Matt Thornton, Chris Sales and Sergio Santos. The rotation is strong, but not overbearing as Jake Peavy remains far from 100%, and Edwin Jackson is hit or miss. Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd should all remain reliable, though. In the end, will the big bats overcome some of the weaknesses of the pitching?
Possibly overtaking both teams is the Detroit Tigers. They made it all the way to the World Series in 2006, but haven't been back to the playoffs since. Don't sleep on the Tigers, though, as they have one of the most potent offensive players in the game today in Miguel Cabrera. He is still dealing with off-the-field issues, but when the man is right he is nearly unstoppable, so look for the Tigers organization to do everything within their power to help this young man sort out his personal demons.
Aiding Miguel on the diamond is new acquisition Victor Martinez who will play a little catcher, 1B and DH. The rest of the infield has veteran stability in Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen. The youth movement is in the outfield as Austin Jackson impressed everyone with his high-average lead-off ability, and Brandon Boesch raked at the beginning of the season, but sputtered late. Boesch will now take a seat behind Ryan Raburn in left, but look for Boesch either to take over for Raburn or Magglio Ordonez in right in the near future.
The rotation is even more of a strength than the lineup card. Justin Verlander leads the arms as the clear ace, but Max Scherzer is getting tons of hype as being heir-apparent, despite having a terrible spring. Backing up those two are converted reliever Phil Coke, constant work in progress Brad Penny, and Rick Porcello who's looking to replicate '09 rather than '10. The bullpen is also a major asset as Jose Valverde continues to be a quality closer, Joel Zumaya tries to stay healthy for all of 2011, and new signing Joaquin Benoit will compete as the set-up man. All in all, the Tigers look to be a major player in the proceedings of the AL Central in 2011.
As I mentioned at the top, the Royals and Indians don't have much hope for the post-season this year, so both squads are looking to future days instead. The Royals have one of the most lauded farm systems in either league as they have 6 of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. With a nice diversity of pitchers and position players, these young Royals could become a major factor in the Central in the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile the Indians are finding their own youthful path to the promised land. The only player to make the Top 50 for the Indians this year was Lonnie Chisenhall, the second-best third-baseman on the list. But there are plenty of other prospects in the system, including second-baseman Jason Kipnis and righty Alex White. Side them with Carlos Santana, and Brantley, two Indians who made the Top 50 last year, and this team is moving in the right direction.
For 2011 though, both the Royals and Indians will probably see what stud players they do have being traded away for even more prospects or draft picks. The Royals already parted ways with Zach Greinke in the off-season, and Cleveland could do the same with big name players like Fausto Carmona or Shin-Soo Choo this year, although that remains unlikely. Both teams signed veteran trade-bait like reliever Chad Durbin and outfielder Melky Cabrera, guys that will most likely fetch a nice price come late June when winning teams are searching for missing pieces. Look for both Kansas City and Cleveland to put up the good fight this year, but ultimately in losing/rebuilding efforts. Neither team is very far away from success, so look for these young players to make an impact, possibly even late this year.
Which means that the AL Central Champion in 2011 will be one of the first three teams we discussed. Do the Twins have enough bop in the bats to do some damage against the other two? Does Chicago have the right combination of power and pitching? Will the Tigers need PETA to come rescue them? All jokes aside, this is an extremely tight race, and one that should provide wonderfully played games for fans of the Central teams. The White Sox have some pitching questions that don't sit well with my inner voice. Meanwhile the Twins are always super competitive, but with Morneau and Nathan still recovering, I just don't know if I trust this team to stay hot, even though they always find a way.
In the end though, I think I have to put my money on the Detroit Tigers. I have heard nothing but excellence coming from the Scherzer story, and I believe Porcello can recapture some of his '09 glory. Verlander should get some Cy Young love this year as he is always a force, but never gets the recognition. Cabrera and Martinez will undoubtedly rake, and should have enough offensive help to lead the team to victory.
As with all my predictions, this is just a guess. It's appropriate to wrap up the divisional section of my Prediction Special with probably my least confident pick. I think the Tigers will win, but I definitely don't put them in the same class of divisional dominance as I would the Phillies or Red Sox. If the Tigers do make me a soothsayer, they will do it with an almost assuredly small margin of victory. Those close wins are what make the game so great, in my opinion, and I look to enjoy many of them this year.
Please stay tuned for the final Wild Card part of the Prediction Special and for the beginning of the season. Until next time.
Monday, March 21, 2011
2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 5 of 6
Today I'm excited because it's draft day for my 12-team fantasy league. I unfortunately won't be able to attend, however, because I have theater rehearsal. So I leave my team in the capable hands of my brother, who will draft for me. What relevance does this have for our Prediction Special, you may ask? For starters neither I, nor my brother for me, are going to draft Adam Wainwright for my team this year, and I'm pretty bummed about that.
Wainwright has been one of my favorite pitchers of the past few years due to his dominance of the National League and his laid-back demeanor. Over the past three years he has the second-best ERA in all of baseball, and he's finished second and third in the past two Cy Young votes. He has become the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals staff over the past two years and has collected 39 wins in that span. So I would be insane not to try and draft him. Except that during Spring Training he ruptured a tendon in his right arm, requiring Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2011 year and will make it difficult for him to contribute for a full 2012 season. Thus we start our National League Central Division discussion with things being thrown out of whack.
Had Wainwright not suffered his injury, the St. Louis Cardinals would have been a lot of people's favorite to win the National League Central, as they have been for a few years now. But with the ace of the staff now sidelined, remaining ace Chris Carpenter dealing with some minor injuries, not to mention the media circus surrounding Albert Pujols and his contract talks, the Cardinals are instead reeling and looking extremely beatable. Not that they even won the division last year. Let's not forget that the Cardinals played terrible baseball against mediocre teams late in the season, and brought upon their own downfall, which paved the way for the Cincinnati Reds to take the NL Central for the first time in 15 years. Throw in two American League pitchers to a team not known for its pitching, and this division is all sorts of screwy.
Let's begin our full discussion with the Cardinals, as we've already laid the groundwork on them. Wainwright is gone, Carpenter is hurt, Pujols might struggle with media/contract pressure, (although that seems highly unlikely) and the bullpen looks a bit weaker if Kyle McClellan has to move into the rotation. So the Cardinals have a lot going against them. Hold on a second though, this team has Albert Pujols for crying out loud, the best player in baseball. They also have Matt Holliday who is a dynamite hitter, young studs Colby Rasmus and John Jay, probably the best catcher in the game in Yadier Molina, a pretty solid rotation with Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse backing up Carpenter, and they still have one of the best managers ever to put on a uniform in Tony La Russa. They even nabbed Lance Berkman off the market, who could make an impact if healthy. So even though this team is going through some pains right now, they still have plenty of talent to remain competitive in the Central. The question is, will competitive be enough to actually win the division in 2011?
Hoping that the answer is no, are the Cincinnati Reds, who took the division last year. The Reds are led by young, talented pitching consisting of Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake. There are also wily veterans Bronson Arroyo who had a career-high 17 wins in '10, and Francisco Cordero saving games at the end of games. Flame-thrower Arolids Chapman may try and surmount Cordero this year as the Reds' closer, but until that happens he will be used as a nearly unstoppable setup man. The rest of the bullpen is a little young, so there is a slight worry about them living up to the challenge, but a potent offense might help alleviate some of that pressure.
That offense is led by reigning NL MVP Joey Votto and his excellent power/average combo strength. The rest of the infield has lots of experience and pop with Brandon Phillips manning second, Edgar Renteria playing short, and Scott Rolen patrolling the hot corner. The younth movement lies in the outfield, as Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs look to add a combined 40-50 homeruns to the offensive-minded Reds in '11. With a successful combination of youth and experience, pitching and power, the Reds are looking strong to repeat in the coming year.
Newly brewed Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum might have something to say about that, as they look to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to the promising land in first place of the Central this year. Yovani Gallardo is the forgotten man in this rotation and is a great pitcher in his own right. With Greinke, Marcum and Randy Wolf providing help this year, this rotation is maybe the best improved in all of baseball. LaTroy Hawkins should come back healthy this year, Takashi Saito will add some sage wisdom, and John Axford will continue to close out games in the bullpen. For all the improvements in pitching, though, the Brewers are still going to mash their way to victory.
Led by Prince Fielder who is in a contract year, Milwaukee is going to hit and hit often. Ryan Braun may be the best hitting outfielder in the game, and his fielding has improved drastically to boot. Casey McGehee is vastly unappreciated over at third, and Rickie Weeks is a stellar table-setter, when healthy. Sprinkle in a deep catching position, speed in Carlos Gomez, a steady average in SS Yuniesky Betancourt, and some additional pop in Corey Hart, and this team is dangerous to just about everybody in the National League. The pitching will have to hold up their end of the bargain, which has been difficult in the past. While the new blood might change that around, are the Brewers the team to beat this year in the NL Central?
The Pirates and Astros probably won't have too much to say about it either way. The Pirates have a new skipper in Clint Hurdle, but once again failed to make any kind of splash in free-agency. Finally some young everyday players are developing; Pedro Alvarez at 3B, Jose Tabata in the outfield, Neil Walker at second and the elite speedster Andrew McCutchen in center. But even if all four have fantastic stat lines in 2011, the team isn't going anywhere anytime soon because they have no pitching. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but no matter how many Olsens the team acquires, whether it's Scott Olsen, Garret Olsen, or the Olsen twins, they aren't going to make this rotation a success. Ross Ohlendorf and his two victories last year (if you count his arbitration salary increase) is very mediocre, Paul Maholm is adequate as a number 5 at best, and James McDonald is still too raw of a pitcher to be anything like a number one guy. It's sad to say, especially for such an historic franchise, but it looks like several more years of losing streak coming to Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile the Astros of Houston are in a somewhat different boat. They had been mostly competitive in the Central for the past ten years, even making a World Series appearance. But with aging stars, and big burdensome contracts in place, the team had to switch gears and get younger quick. The last of the Killer B's Lance Berkman was shipped off, as was long-time ace Roy Oswalt. This year will most likely see Carlos Lee going somewhere else too, if the Astros are willing to eat his contract. Unlike the Pirates though, Houston is tying to get back on track. They acquired young lefty J.A. Happ to assist Brett Myers, Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez in the rotation. They have nurtured Hunter Pence into an all-around good player. Michael Bourn is a bag-stealing machine. They even have some talent emerging with infielders Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson. But when you put all the external pieces together, like Bill Hall, Brandon Lyon, Clint Barmes and Jason Michaels, this team is still a bit too much of a hodge podge to be competitive any time in the very near future.
Now I seem to be forgetting a franchise. Who could it be? Oh, right the Chicago Cubs! What can I say about this team? Are they coming or going, buying or selling, riding the crazy train, or simply visiting the ward? I quite frankly have no idea. They are one of the most expensive teams in baseball, and have very little to show for it. They are dysfunctional on a primal level and appear to have some of the biggest egos and maladjusted tempers of any team in sports. But let's forget all that for a second and look at the team on paper.
In theory, the pitching should be a strength. Ryan Dempster is as solid as solid gets. Matt Garza did extremely well against the AL, so logic states he should do well against the NL. Carlos Zambrano is an elite pitcher when sane, and Carlos Silva can sometimes be great. Aramis Ramirez is one of the best third-basemen in the game, and should be coming back healthy in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a terrific talent in the bullpen. Geovanny Soto is a very good catcher. Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin are up-and-coming studs while newcomer Carlos Pena could mash a ton of balls out of Wrigley this season. But now toss the paper away and look at reality. Zambrano is a nutcase that could lose it at any minute and apparently Silva isn't far behind. Garza seems to have a bad attitude at times as well. Pena could hit 40 dingers, but could also have a .140 average if not careful. Marmol is erratic and needs time to find control. Meanwhile, outfielders Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano have both been disappointments for their price tags since coming over. The team is a high-priced mess and while there is potential at times, you can't count on this team coexisting well enough for a full season to anticipate anything but a third or fourth place finish in the NL Central. Sorry Cub fans, but not this year.
So it boils down to three out of six teams who will compete for the NL Central crown. The Cardinals, Reds or Brewers? The Cards are suffering right now, but have been at or near the top of the division for more than a decade and will probably be competitive through sheer willpower alone. The Brewers are new and improved, but have big question marks in Weeks' health, Fielder's staying or going, and Greinke returning to 2009 form. Meanwhile the Reds haven't changed much since last year and that might prove the best move of all.
Cincinnati still has the power, the pitching and in my opinion, the consistency to win the division more than the other teams. It is strue that they really don't have a stopper ace. What they do have are lots of excellent parts that seem to blend well together like working cogs. Almost as if they were some sort of big red machine. That machine will keep rolling in 2011 as the Cincinnati Reds are my pick to take the NL Central crown.
Stay tuned as we wrap up the divisional part of our 2nd Annual Prediction Special next time. But don't forget about the Wild Card Edition, where we sum everything up, and pick some final winners that will go on to the 2011 World Series! As far as I can tell in March, anyway.
Wainwright has been one of my favorite pitchers of the past few years due to his dominance of the National League and his laid-back demeanor. Over the past three years he has the second-best ERA in all of baseball, and he's finished second and third in the past two Cy Young votes. He has become the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals staff over the past two years and has collected 39 wins in that span. So I would be insane not to try and draft him. Except that during Spring Training he ruptured a tendon in his right arm, requiring Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2011 year and will make it difficult for him to contribute for a full 2012 season. Thus we start our National League Central Division discussion with things being thrown out of whack.
Had Wainwright not suffered his injury, the St. Louis Cardinals would have been a lot of people's favorite to win the National League Central, as they have been for a few years now. But with the ace of the staff now sidelined, remaining ace Chris Carpenter dealing with some minor injuries, not to mention the media circus surrounding Albert Pujols and his contract talks, the Cardinals are instead reeling and looking extremely beatable. Not that they even won the division last year. Let's not forget that the Cardinals played terrible baseball against mediocre teams late in the season, and brought upon their own downfall, which paved the way for the Cincinnati Reds to take the NL Central for the first time in 15 years. Throw in two American League pitchers to a team not known for its pitching, and this division is all sorts of screwy.
Let's begin our full discussion with the Cardinals, as we've already laid the groundwork on them. Wainwright is gone, Carpenter is hurt, Pujols might struggle with media/contract pressure, (although that seems highly unlikely) and the bullpen looks a bit weaker if Kyle McClellan has to move into the rotation. So the Cardinals have a lot going against them. Hold on a second though, this team has Albert Pujols for crying out loud, the best player in baseball. They also have Matt Holliday who is a dynamite hitter, young studs Colby Rasmus and John Jay, probably the best catcher in the game in Yadier Molina, a pretty solid rotation with Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse backing up Carpenter, and they still have one of the best managers ever to put on a uniform in Tony La Russa. They even nabbed Lance Berkman off the market, who could make an impact if healthy. So even though this team is going through some pains right now, they still have plenty of talent to remain competitive in the Central. The question is, will competitive be enough to actually win the division in 2011?
Hoping that the answer is no, are the Cincinnati Reds, who took the division last year. The Reds are led by young, talented pitching consisting of Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake. There are also wily veterans Bronson Arroyo who had a career-high 17 wins in '10, and Francisco Cordero saving games at the end of games. Flame-thrower Arolids Chapman may try and surmount Cordero this year as the Reds' closer, but until that happens he will be used as a nearly unstoppable setup man. The rest of the bullpen is a little young, so there is a slight worry about them living up to the challenge, but a potent offense might help alleviate some of that pressure.
That offense is led by reigning NL MVP Joey Votto and his excellent power/average combo strength. The rest of the infield has lots of experience and pop with Brandon Phillips manning second, Edgar Renteria playing short, and Scott Rolen patrolling the hot corner. The younth movement lies in the outfield, as Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs look to add a combined 40-50 homeruns to the offensive-minded Reds in '11. With a successful combination of youth and experience, pitching and power, the Reds are looking strong to repeat in the coming year.
Newly brewed Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum might have something to say about that, as they look to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to the promising land in first place of the Central this year. Yovani Gallardo is the forgotten man in this rotation and is a great pitcher in his own right. With Greinke, Marcum and Randy Wolf providing help this year, this rotation is maybe the best improved in all of baseball. LaTroy Hawkins should come back healthy this year, Takashi Saito will add some sage wisdom, and John Axford will continue to close out games in the bullpen. For all the improvements in pitching, though, the Brewers are still going to mash their way to victory.
Led by Prince Fielder who is in a contract year, Milwaukee is going to hit and hit often. Ryan Braun may be the best hitting outfielder in the game, and his fielding has improved drastically to boot. Casey McGehee is vastly unappreciated over at third, and Rickie Weeks is a stellar table-setter, when healthy. Sprinkle in a deep catching position, speed in Carlos Gomez, a steady average in SS Yuniesky Betancourt, and some additional pop in Corey Hart, and this team is dangerous to just about everybody in the National League. The pitching will have to hold up their end of the bargain, which has been difficult in the past. While the new blood might change that around, are the Brewers the team to beat this year in the NL Central?
The Pirates and Astros probably won't have too much to say about it either way. The Pirates have a new skipper in Clint Hurdle, but once again failed to make any kind of splash in free-agency. Finally some young everyday players are developing; Pedro Alvarez at 3B, Jose Tabata in the outfield, Neil Walker at second and the elite speedster Andrew McCutchen in center. But even if all four have fantastic stat lines in 2011, the team isn't going anywhere anytime soon because they have no pitching. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but no matter how many Olsens the team acquires, whether it's Scott Olsen, Garret Olsen, or the Olsen twins, they aren't going to make this rotation a success. Ross Ohlendorf and his two victories last year (if you count his arbitration salary increase) is very mediocre, Paul Maholm is adequate as a number 5 at best, and James McDonald is still too raw of a pitcher to be anything like a number one guy. It's sad to say, especially for such an historic franchise, but it looks like several more years of losing streak coming to Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile the Astros of Houston are in a somewhat different boat. They had been mostly competitive in the Central for the past ten years, even making a World Series appearance. But with aging stars, and big burdensome contracts in place, the team had to switch gears and get younger quick. The last of the Killer B's Lance Berkman was shipped off, as was long-time ace Roy Oswalt. This year will most likely see Carlos Lee going somewhere else too, if the Astros are willing to eat his contract. Unlike the Pirates though, Houston is tying to get back on track. They acquired young lefty J.A. Happ to assist Brett Myers, Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez in the rotation. They have nurtured Hunter Pence into an all-around good player. Michael Bourn is a bag-stealing machine. They even have some talent emerging with infielders Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson. But when you put all the external pieces together, like Bill Hall, Brandon Lyon, Clint Barmes and Jason Michaels, this team is still a bit too much of a hodge podge to be competitive any time in the very near future.
Now I seem to be forgetting a franchise. Who could it be? Oh, right the Chicago Cubs! What can I say about this team? Are they coming or going, buying or selling, riding the crazy train, or simply visiting the ward? I quite frankly have no idea. They are one of the most expensive teams in baseball, and have very little to show for it. They are dysfunctional on a primal level and appear to have some of the biggest egos and maladjusted tempers of any team in sports. But let's forget all that for a second and look at the team on paper.
In theory, the pitching should be a strength. Ryan Dempster is as solid as solid gets. Matt Garza did extremely well against the AL, so logic states he should do well against the NL. Carlos Zambrano is an elite pitcher when sane, and Carlos Silva can sometimes be great. Aramis Ramirez is one of the best third-basemen in the game, and should be coming back healthy in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a terrific talent in the bullpen. Geovanny Soto is a very good catcher. Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin are up-and-coming studs while newcomer Carlos Pena could mash a ton of balls out of Wrigley this season. But now toss the paper away and look at reality. Zambrano is a nutcase that could lose it at any minute and apparently Silva isn't far behind. Garza seems to have a bad attitude at times as well. Pena could hit 40 dingers, but could also have a .140 average if not careful. Marmol is erratic and needs time to find control. Meanwhile, outfielders Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano have both been disappointments for their price tags since coming over. The team is a high-priced mess and while there is potential at times, you can't count on this team coexisting well enough for a full season to anticipate anything but a third or fourth place finish in the NL Central. Sorry Cub fans, but not this year.
So it boils down to three out of six teams who will compete for the NL Central crown. The Cardinals, Reds or Brewers? The Cards are suffering right now, but have been at or near the top of the division for more than a decade and will probably be competitive through sheer willpower alone. The Brewers are new and improved, but have big question marks in Weeks' health, Fielder's staying or going, and Greinke returning to 2009 form. Meanwhile the Reds haven't changed much since last year and that might prove the best move of all.
Cincinnati still has the power, the pitching and in my opinion, the consistency to win the division more than the other teams. It is strue that they really don't have a stopper ace. What they do have are lots of excellent parts that seem to blend well together like working cogs. Almost as if they were some sort of big red machine. That machine will keep rolling in 2011 as the Cincinnati Reds are my pick to take the NL Central crown.
Stay tuned as we wrap up the divisional part of our 2nd Annual Prediction Special next time. But don't forget about the Wild Card Edition, where we sum everything up, and pick some final winners that will go on to the 2011 World Series! As far as I can tell in March, anyway.
Friday, March 11, 2011
2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 4 of 6
We started a pattern with this year's Prediction Special by first covering both western divisions, and then going over to the NL East. Why don't we keep that style going, and proceed to discuss the American League East now. Along the way, you might discover that from top to bottom, this is one of the best divisions in baseball. Who is the underdog, and who is the favorite? You'll just have to decide for yourself. Or listen to my prediction, which ever. Let's get to it.
Last year I predicted the New York Yankees to take not only the East, but the American League, and eventually the World Series. I had good reason to assume this as they were the defending World Series Champions from 2009, and hadn't changed for the worse in the off-season. Little did I know that A.J. Burnett would have a terrible overall year, with career worsts for a full pitching season in ERA, winning percentage, strikeout totals with 25 starts or more, hit batsman, WHIP, and Hits/9. Not having a steady and sometimes dominating number two starter wounded the Yankees, and while Phil Hughes stepped up to become that guy, the combined struggles of Burnett and Javier Vasquez put the pitching staff on notice against the rest of the league.
The bullpen held up with Mariano Rivera being his unstoppable self again, and of course the Bronx Bombers eventually hit their way to the playoffs, but not the way you probably thought they would. Mark Teixiera struggled early and mightily with his average, but made up for this season long drought with sheer power numbers. Alex Rodriguez was consistently productive all year, but not the MVP tour de force he had been when he was...well, you know. And Derek Jeter, the captain of the Yankees, had a less-than-Jeter .270 average hitting lead-off. However, while everybody said Jeter had an awful year, besides his average he really had a pretty standard, good year. He even won a Gold Glove, somehow. But the guys who really carried the team through some bad times were Nick Swisher in right field, who has become a really good all-around player, and Robinson Cano at second, who some people think has evolved into perhaps the greatest player in the game.
The Yankees didn't win the East, but did win the Wild Card, then proceeded to dismantle the Minnesota Twins for the fourth time in the past eight years. They themselves then got dismantled by the Texas Rangers, and that was all she wrote for the Yanks in 2010. Will 2011 be different? Well for starters A.J. Burnett is reportedly looking like his old self again in Spring Training, which gives the NY media reason to hope, even if just for a second. Also, Derek Jeter may be moved back to his normal duties batting second, which should be beneficial to him and the lineup as a whole. The Yanks missed out on all the major free-agents they went after, but eventually signed Raphael Soriano to pitch the eighth ahead of Rivera. This team isn't much better on paper than they were last year, so to say things will be any different might be a stretch. They are always a top tier club, though, and to rule them out entirely is just plain foolish.
There is another team in the division who may have something to say to that result, too. The Boston Red Sox won 89 games last year while being crippled with injuries almost from day 1. The 2010 season saw Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett and Jarrod Saltalamacchia missing huge chunks of playing time, with Victor Martinez, and J.D. Drew both playing less than 140 games. Terry Francona managed to keep the team afloat with contributions from minor league utility players, a MVP-type season from Adrian Beltre, and a resurgence of David Ortiz's power. On a side-note, I think Francona should have won Manager of the Year, but that's neither here nor there for this discussion. What matters is that the Sox proved they could play through adversity.
Things should be a little easier this go around. Not only are Pedroia and the others all healthy now, but GM Theo Epstein traded to obtain Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, and signed outfielder Carl Crawford to a huge deal. While Martinez and Beltre are now gone, this remains perhaps the most formidable lineup in all the majors now, and the sky is the limit for these hitters. Add onto that the pitching staff which consists of two young aces in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, veteran dynamos Josh Beckett and John Lackey, and the possibility of Daisuke Matsuzaka playing like his promise, and this rotation could be one of the best in the game. Not to mention the bullpen has young sensation Daniel Bard and new acquirement Booby (Haha, I wrote Booby) Jenks to backup Johnathan Papelbon. There is a real chance that this team could win 100 games without breaking a sweat. Meanwhile, Adrian Gonzalez, while recovery from shoulder surgery, is still my pick to be the AL MVP, as the Green Monster in left and the short porch in right will prove minor obstacles to Gonzalez when compared to the vast stretches of Petco Park out in San Diego. Does this make them the favorite to win the division?
Well first we should discuss the team that actually won the East in 2010. The Tampa Bay Rays were fantastic all year long with great pitching from David Price and Matt Garza, and with close out stuff from the aforementioned Soriano in the bullpen. Wonderful production was provided from the bats of Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford all season, while other players contributed with steals (B.J. Upton) and power (Carlos Pena). This team won 96 games and the AL East crown not by having All-Stars at every position and a giant payroll, but by playing hard every single game, and with great defense. The Ray committed the third least amount of errors in the American League last year. Team depth was so crucial that when one aspect of the team suffered, another took up the reigns and kept the club rolling along. They eventually lost the Division Series to the Texas Rangers, and looked somewhat outmatched throughout the series, which showed that it still does help to have clutch star players at times.
This team lost a huge proportion of its 2010 roster this off-season, which makes a repeat playoff appearance look doubtful in 2011. Crawford, Soriano, Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza are all gone, not to mention just about every arm from the bullpen. The Rays have cobbled together a new 'pen and have lots of young depth coming through the system to replace Garza and the every day players, but there are big question marks about how ready guys like Desmond Jennings and Sean Rodriguez are to play 162. Veteran presence from Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may help, but I believe both are too far past their primes to lend support in anything more than a mentoring role. Still, they may prove more of an impact than I realize. But to say this team is going to win the East again is a bit tough to swallow at this moment.
There are two up and coming teams still left in the division as well. The Toronto Blue Jays for one, have some dynamic starting pitching in Brett Cecil, Kyle (Son of Doug) Drabek, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen looks improved with the likes of former closers Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, and Carlos Villanueva. And the lineup doesn't look too bad either. Jose Bautista will try to replicate his monstrous 2010 season, but 54 homers is a bit much to repeat. Instead he might hit 30 or so, which is still great. If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy all season, and if Aaron Hill and Adam Lind can keep their power numbers while hitting anything better than .250, this team could be fit to surprise a lot of people. All the right things have to fall into place for that to happen, though. With that considered, it's possible for the Blue Jays to actually improve on their 85-win season of just a year ago.
The Baltimore Orioles will be another exciting team to watch, and lots of analysts are already calling them the surprise team of the year from either league. The O's did nothing short of transform themselves under the management of Buck Showalter last year. Luke Scott had his best career year, Nick Markakis continued to collect his 45 doubles, and Adam Jones is an elite center-fielder. This off-season was busy one for GM Andy MacPhail as he traded to get power-hitting 3B Mark Reynolds from Arizona, he signed veteran 1B Derek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero, brought in J.J. Hardy to play short, and Kevin Gregg to help solidify the 'pen. This team now has a excellence mix of veteran experience, and young up and coming talent like Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters.
The biggest flaw of this team is still undeniably the starting rotation. Not one starting pitcher had a winning record last year, and without innings-eater Kevin Millwood to take several for the team in 2011, young guys Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta are going to have to quickly learn how to handle the elite hitters of the American League East and beyond. The bats will keep this team in games, but if Buck and pitching coach Mark Connor can't turn these kids into MLB pitchers sooner rather than later, then this team will continue to suffer at the bottom of the division.
Who will go ahead and put all the talking to rest and win the East in 2011? Well, it's not much of a shock to see me picking the Boston Red Sox to win it this year. With a great rotation, and an unbelievably talented lineup, this club might just roll over its competition all year long. Then again, the club may not mesh, injuries could set in, and any given day the team might falter. However, I think as it stands the Red Sox have what it takes to beat the other four teams in the East.
Unlike most other divisions, though, the more interesting story lies in the other teams. The Orioles and Blue Jays have captured a lot of attention with high hopes floating around, and the Rays are garnering some notice for how they will handle the massive layoffs that resulted from the off-season. The Yankees will always draw press as well, because they are such a storied franchise. So while the Red Sox may take the American League, it might actually go somewhat unnoticed. Lots of people are expecting them to run away with it, so the only real surprise would be if they don't for some reason. Whether they do or not is all in how they play the game, and I for one can't wait for them to start.
Last year I predicted the New York Yankees to take not only the East, but the American League, and eventually the World Series. I had good reason to assume this as they were the defending World Series Champions from 2009, and hadn't changed for the worse in the off-season. Little did I know that A.J. Burnett would have a terrible overall year, with career worsts for a full pitching season in ERA, winning percentage, strikeout totals with 25 starts or more, hit batsman, WHIP, and Hits/9. Not having a steady and sometimes dominating number two starter wounded the Yankees, and while Phil Hughes stepped up to become that guy, the combined struggles of Burnett and Javier Vasquez put the pitching staff on notice against the rest of the league.
The bullpen held up with Mariano Rivera being his unstoppable self again, and of course the Bronx Bombers eventually hit their way to the playoffs, but not the way you probably thought they would. Mark Teixiera struggled early and mightily with his average, but made up for this season long drought with sheer power numbers. Alex Rodriguez was consistently productive all year, but not the MVP tour de force he had been when he was...well, you know. And Derek Jeter, the captain of the Yankees, had a less-than-Jeter .270 average hitting lead-off. However, while everybody said Jeter had an awful year, besides his average he really had a pretty standard, good year. He even won a Gold Glove, somehow. But the guys who really carried the team through some bad times were Nick Swisher in right field, who has become a really good all-around player, and Robinson Cano at second, who some people think has evolved into perhaps the greatest player in the game.
The Yankees didn't win the East, but did win the Wild Card, then proceeded to dismantle the Minnesota Twins for the fourth time in the past eight years. They themselves then got dismantled by the Texas Rangers, and that was all she wrote for the Yanks in 2010. Will 2011 be different? Well for starters A.J. Burnett is reportedly looking like his old self again in Spring Training, which gives the NY media reason to hope, even if just for a second. Also, Derek Jeter may be moved back to his normal duties batting second, which should be beneficial to him and the lineup as a whole. The Yanks missed out on all the major free-agents they went after, but eventually signed Raphael Soriano to pitch the eighth ahead of Rivera. This team isn't much better on paper than they were last year, so to say things will be any different might be a stretch. They are always a top tier club, though, and to rule them out entirely is just plain foolish.
There is another team in the division who may have something to say to that result, too. The Boston Red Sox won 89 games last year while being crippled with injuries almost from day 1. The 2010 season saw Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett and Jarrod Saltalamacchia missing huge chunks of playing time, with Victor Martinez, and J.D. Drew both playing less than 140 games. Terry Francona managed to keep the team afloat with contributions from minor league utility players, a MVP-type season from Adrian Beltre, and a resurgence of David Ortiz's power. On a side-note, I think Francona should have won Manager of the Year, but that's neither here nor there for this discussion. What matters is that the Sox proved they could play through adversity.
Things should be a little easier this go around. Not only are Pedroia and the others all healthy now, but GM Theo Epstein traded to obtain Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, and signed outfielder Carl Crawford to a huge deal. While Martinez and Beltre are now gone, this remains perhaps the most formidable lineup in all the majors now, and the sky is the limit for these hitters. Add onto that the pitching staff which consists of two young aces in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, veteran dynamos Josh Beckett and John Lackey, and the possibility of Daisuke Matsuzaka playing like his promise, and this rotation could be one of the best in the game. Not to mention the bullpen has young sensation Daniel Bard and new acquirement Booby (Haha, I wrote Booby) Jenks to backup Johnathan Papelbon. There is a real chance that this team could win 100 games without breaking a sweat. Meanwhile, Adrian Gonzalez, while recovery from shoulder surgery, is still my pick to be the AL MVP, as the Green Monster in left and the short porch in right will prove minor obstacles to Gonzalez when compared to the vast stretches of Petco Park out in San Diego. Does this make them the favorite to win the division?
Well first we should discuss the team that actually won the East in 2010. The Tampa Bay Rays were fantastic all year long with great pitching from David Price and Matt Garza, and with close out stuff from the aforementioned Soriano in the bullpen. Wonderful production was provided from the bats of Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford all season, while other players contributed with steals (B.J. Upton) and power (Carlos Pena). This team won 96 games and the AL East crown not by having All-Stars at every position and a giant payroll, but by playing hard every single game, and with great defense. The Ray committed the third least amount of errors in the American League last year. Team depth was so crucial that when one aspect of the team suffered, another took up the reigns and kept the club rolling along. They eventually lost the Division Series to the Texas Rangers, and looked somewhat outmatched throughout the series, which showed that it still does help to have clutch star players at times.
This team lost a huge proportion of its 2010 roster this off-season, which makes a repeat playoff appearance look doubtful in 2011. Crawford, Soriano, Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza are all gone, not to mention just about every arm from the bullpen. The Rays have cobbled together a new 'pen and have lots of young depth coming through the system to replace Garza and the every day players, but there are big question marks about how ready guys like Desmond Jennings and Sean Rodriguez are to play 162. Veteran presence from Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may help, but I believe both are too far past their primes to lend support in anything more than a mentoring role. Still, they may prove more of an impact than I realize. But to say this team is going to win the East again is a bit tough to swallow at this moment.
There are two up and coming teams still left in the division as well. The Toronto Blue Jays for one, have some dynamic starting pitching in Brett Cecil, Kyle (Son of Doug) Drabek, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen looks improved with the likes of former closers Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, and Carlos Villanueva. And the lineup doesn't look too bad either. Jose Bautista will try to replicate his monstrous 2010 season, but 54 homers is a bit much to repeat. Instead he might hit 30 or so, which is still great. If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy all season, and if Aaron Hill and Adam Lind can keep their power numbers while hitting anything better than .250, this team could be fit to surprise a lot of people. All the right things have to fall into place for that to happen, though. With that considered, it's possible for the Blue Jays to actually improve on their 85-win season of just a year ago.
The Baltimore Orioles will be another exciting team to watch, and lots of analysts are already calling them the surprise team of the year from either league. The O's did nothing short of transform themselves under the management of Buck Showalter last year. Luke Scott had his best career year, Nick Markakis continued to collect his 45 doubles, and Adam Jones is an elite center-fielder. This off-season was busy one for GM Andy MacPhail as he traded to get power-hitting 3B Mark Reynolds from Arizona, he signed veteran 1B Derek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero, brought in J.J. Hardy to play short, and Kevin Gregg to help solidify the 'pen. This team now has a excellence mix of veteran experience, and young up and coming talent like Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters.
The biggest flaw of this team is still undeniably the starting rotation. Not one starting pitcher had a winning record last year, and without innings-eater Kevin Millwood to take several for the team in 2011, young guys Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta are going to have to quickly learn how to handle the elite hitters of the American League East and beyond. The bats will keep this team in games, but if Buck and pitching coach Mark Connor can't turn these kids into MLB pitchers sooner rather than later, then this team will continue to suffer at the bottom of the division.
Who will go ahead and put all the talking to rest and win the East in 2011? Well, it's not much of a shock to see me picking the Boston Red Sox to win it this year. With a great rotation, and an unbelievably talented lineup, this club might just roll over its competition all year long. Then again, the club may not mesh, injuries could set in, and any given day the team might falter. However, I think as it stands the Red Sox have what it takes to beat the other four teams in the East.
Unlike most other divisions, though, the more interesting story lies in the other teams. The Orioles and Blue Jays have captured a lot of attention with high hopes floating around, and the Rays are garnering some notice for how they will handle the massive layoffs that resulted from the off-season. The Yankees will always draw press as well, because they are such a storied franchise. So while the Red Sox may take the American League, it might actually go somewhat unnoticed. Lots of people are expecting them to run away with it, so the only real surprise would be if they don't for some reason. Whether they do or not is all in how they play the game, and I for one can't wait for them to start.
Monday, March 7, 2011
2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 3 of 6
When you reach the last sentence of this post, we will be halfway finished with our 2nd Annual Prediction Special. Of course, before we get that far, we must analyze and concoct imaginary prognostications for yet another division in Major League Baseball. We've covered both the National and American League West thus far, so now join us as we fly from the west coast, all the way to the east coast, and delve into the NL East.
Last year I was right on the money with this division. I predicted the Phillies to finish first, the Braves to play runner-up, and then the Marlins, Mets, and Nats to round out the division. This was not a hard declaration to make, seeing as how Philadelphia is one of the best baseball teams in the entire league, has been for some time, and keeps reinvesting with stud veterans to make sure they remain at the top of the NL East. It was also pretty easy to see the Atlanta Braves improving, but not quite up to Philly's level. And it was the same old story with the other three clubs, floundering Marlins, mucked up Mets, and nothing doing Nationals.
Will 2011 be very different? Well for starters the Nationals have been spending money to get better. Unfortunately for them, they seem to be throwing it in the wrong places. They had a big name power hitting stud in Adam Dunn, but decided The Big Donkey's defense was a liability. Instead they spend a whole crap ton of money to acquire former Phil Jayson Werth, who is a very strong player, but not the true clean-up hitter that Dunn is. Stephen Strasburg had one of the biggest debuts of any player I can remember, but it was short lived as he needed Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow. His impact, and now his learning curve will be stunted in 2011 as well, but he should be the ace of the staff before long.
The Nationals do have plenty of bright spots in young players like outfielder Mike Morse, the 18-year-old Bryce Harper, catcher Wilson Ramos, and of course phenomenal third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Pessimistically, the weakest spot is still the pitching staff. There is no true ace, no real inning-eaters, and after trading Matt Capps, no dominant closer. If this club is going to get better in the next year or two, they will have to start spending smarter, and focus on what wins games, pitching.
Speaking of a team that needs to spend smarter, the Metropolitans are still a mess. Ace Johan Santana got hurt at the end of last year for the second season in a row. He required surgery on his elbow, which will delay his 2011 debut until around June. Until then the rotation will have to survive without him by leaning heavily on Mike Pelfrey, but who knows what Pelfrey Mets' fans are going to get this year. There is also pleasant surprise and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who could have a good year again, and young lefty Jon Niese who has some upside. But recent addition Chris Young, and consummate disappointment Oliver Perez will have to step up beyond what they are capable of doing in all likelihood, for this rotation to succeed without Santana.
The lineup isn't as big of a question, but it is still a question. Jose Reyes is in a contract year, and if he shows sparks of his earlier success, he will probably be traded by July. Carlos Beltran has agreed to move to right-field so as to save his knees, help in his recovery, and give Angel Pagan the everyday center-field position. Jason Bay should be almost all the way back from his concussion symptoms, and David Wright could produce solid numbers again, although his sometimes sketchy defense and his strikeouts have been major concern the past two years. 1B Ike Davis is probably the best young talent on the team, and could transform into a star in the next couple of years. In the end there are vast 'maybes' about this squad, including the new manager, and the future financial viability of the ownership, which leads me to believe that the new season will resemble the old in sadly too many ways.
The Florida Marlins were actually very busy in the trade market, which has not often been the case. They traded away young center-fielder Cameron Maybin to San Diego for bullpen help, and Dan Uggla to Atlanta for a small return. They signed catcher John Buck and Javier Vasquez, and really spend some time trying to improve the terrible bullpen by signing Randy Choate and acquiring Dustin Richardson, Edward Mujica, and Ryan Webb. The real strength of this club is in the solid rotation, led by ace Josh Johnson, and in the young hitters. Johnson is backed up by Vasquez, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, with Sean West and Chris Volstad vying for a spot. The stuff is there for all of these guys, but the quality control has sometimes been an issue.
Meanwhile the lineup boasts some of the most talented youngsters in the game. Chris Coghlan had a disappointing year after his 2009 ROY campaign, but has lots of ability, and a move to center could prove beneficial. Logan Morrison uses all fields and should be a high average guy. Gaby Sanchez had a breakout year with 19 homers and 85 RBI in his first full season. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best players in the game and is still only 27. Meanwhile, Mike Stanton could be the best power hitter to come up in the past five years or so. Stanton's 22 homers in 100 games is borderline disgusting, and if he recovers easily from a early hamstring injury, we could potentially be looking at a 30-40 homer guy. What this means for the Marlins is a lot of promise, but nothing guaranteed. The club will still struggle at times as defense hasn't been a strong aspect, but a second-place finish in the division is entirely possible.
Next comes the Atlanta Braves, who have a dynamic pitching staff of their own. Tim Hudson was the Comeback Player of the Year in 2010, and he leads a staff of Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens. We would be remiss if we didn't laud the bullpen, though, as this club may have the best pen in the majors. Even with Billy Wagner retired, they still have Jonny Venters, George Sherrill, Peter Moylan, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Medlan, just to name a few. If this club gets a lead, the pen should be able to close the game out with a win more times than not.
And get leads they shall, with this deep lineup. There is perennial All-Star catcher Brian McCann, rookie sensation last year Jason Heyward, rookie sensation this year Freddie Freeman, future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, Alex Gonzalez at short, and new acquisition Dan Uggla at second. If all cylinders click for this group, leads will be easy to come by. But health issues are always a concern for Jones. McCann has been vital year after year, but wear and tear at a demanding position could begin to show. Heyward may have a sophomore slump, although I think that is unlikely. And Uggla could struggle to adjust to his new team early on. Will these possible holdups be detrimental to their season?
Finally, there are the defending NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies. As if having Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamel weren't enough, they went out and reacquired Cliff Lee this off-season, which gives them maybe the best starting four in the majors. Each of these guys could stand to win 20 games this year, but the offense has to cooperate. Last year injuries and some setback play derailed the Phillies for parts of the season. They overcame these obstacles like true champions, though, and fought back to eventually have the best record in the baseball. Some misgivings still persist, however.
Chase Utley is still recovering from knee issues, and very recently highly-touted rookie right-fielder Dominic Brown suffered a fracture in his right hand that will most likely require surgery. How long that will put him out is still undetermined, but it throws a small kink in the cogs of trying to replace Jayson Werth. On the other hand, this could leave the door open for Ben Francisco or John Mayberry to step up. In other areas, Raul Ibanez had his lowest HR total since 2004, and could finally be on the decline at the tender age of 38. Ryan Howard's inability to hit the inside breaking ball has become more apparent over the years, and Jimmy Rollins is not only in a contract year, but still reeling from a injury-plagued 2010. Will these issues rise up to undermine the mighty Phillies empire?
Probably not. Philadelphia will still take the division as they are one of the best teams in baseball, and have proven over the past few years that they are ready to spend money in order to fix problem areas. The bullpen may be one facet where mid-season trades help the squad, but GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been incredibly adept at nabbing guys for the right price. The hesitations for the Braves and Marlins are still too large, and too many to compete with the Phils. If Philly stumbles, even in multiple areas, they will quickly get back up. If the other teams falter even in minors ways, it could spell the end of their playoff hopes. In 2011 the NL East is the Phillies' division to lose, and it doesn't look like they intend to do so any year soon.
Last year I was right on the money with this division. I predicted the Phillies to finish first, the Braves to play runner-up, and then the Marlins, Mets, and Nats to round out the division. This was not a hard declaration to make, seeing as how Philadelphia is one of the best baseball teams in the entire league, has been for some time, and keeps reinvesting with stud veterans to make sure they remain at the top of the NL East. It was also pretty easy to see the Atlanta Braves improving, but not quite up to Philly's level. And it was the same old story with the other three clubs, floundering Marlins, mucked up Mets, and nothing doing Nationals.
Will 2011 be very different? Well for starters the Nationals have been spending money to get better. Unfortunately for them, they seem to be throwing it in the wrong places. They had a big name power hitting stud in Adam Dunn, but decided The Big Donkey's defense was a liability. Instead they spend a whole crap ton of money to acquire former Phil Jayson Werth, who is a very strong player, but not the true clean-up hitter that Dunn is. Stephen Strasburg had one of the biggest debuts of any player I can remember, but it was short lived as he needed Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow. His impact, and now his learning curve will be stunted in 2011 as well, but he should be the ace of the staff before long.
The Nationals do have plenty of bright spots in young players like outfielder Mike Morse, the 18-year-old Bryce Harper, catcher Wilson Ramos, and of course phenomenal third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Pessimistically, the weakest spot is still the pitching staff. There is no true ace, no real inning-eaters, and after trading Matt Capps, no dominant closer. If this club is going to get better in the next year or two, they will have to start spending smarter, and focus on what wins games, pitching.
Speaking of a team that needs to spend smarter, the Metropolitans are still a mess. Ace Johan Santana got hurt at the end of last year for the second season in a row. He required surgery on his elbow, which will delay his 2011 debut until around June. Until then the rotation will have to survive without him by leaning heavily on Mike Pelfrey, but who knows what Pelfrey Mets' fans are going to get this year. There is also pleasant surprise and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who could have a good year again, and young lefty Jon Niese who has some upside. But recent addition Chris Young, and consummate disappointment Oliver Perez will have to step up beyond what they are capable of doing in all likelihood, for this rotation to succeed without Santana.
The lineup isn't as big of a question, but it is still a question. Jose Reyes is in a contract year, and if he shows sparks of his earlier success, he will probably be traded by July. Carlos Beltran has agreed to move to right-field so as to save his knees, help in his recovery, and give Angel Pagan the everyday center-field position. Jason Bay should be almost all the way back from his concussion symptoms, and David Wright could produce solid numbers again, although his sometimes sketchy defense and his strikeouts have been major concern the past two years. 1B Ike Davis is probably the best young talent on the team, and could transform into a star in the next couple of years. In the end there are vast 'maybes' about this squad, including the new manager, and the future financial viability of the ownership, which leads me to believe that the new season will resemble the old in sadly too many ways.
The Florida Marlins were actually very busy in the trade market, which has not often been the case. They traded away young center-fielder Cameron Maybin to San Diego for bullpen help, and Dan Uggla to Atlanta for a small return. They signed catcher John Buck and Javier Vasquez, and really spend some time trying to improve the terrible bullpen by signing Randy Choate and acquiring Dustin Richardson, Edward Mujica, and Ryan Webb. The real strength of this club is in the solid rotation, led by ace Josh Johnson, and in the young hitters. Johnson is backed up by Vasquez, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, with Sean West and Chris Volstad vying for a spot. The stuff is there for all of these guys, but the quality control has sometimes been an issue.
Meanwhile the lineup boasts some of the most talented youngsters in the game. Chris Coghlan had a disappointing year after his 2009 ROY campaign, but has lots of ability, and a move to center could prove beneficial. Logan Morrison uses all fields and should be a high average guy. Gaby Sanchez had a breakout year with 19 homers and 85 RBI in his first full season. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best players in the game and is still only 27. Meanwhile, Mike Stanton could be the best power hitter to come up in the past five years or so. Stanton's 22 homers in 100 games is borderline disgusting, and if he recovers easily from a early hamstring injury, we could potentially be looking at a 30-40 homer guy. What this means for the Marlins is a lot of promise, but nothing guaranteed. The club will still struggle at times as defense hasn't been a strong aspect, but a second-place finish in the division is entirely possible.
Next comes the Atlanta Braves, who have a dynamic pitching staff of their own. Tim Hudson was the Comeback Player of the Year in 2010, and he leads a staff of Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens. We would be remiss if we didn't laud the bullpen, though, as this club may have the best pen in the majors. Even with Billy Wagner retired, they still have Jonny Venters, George Sherrill, Peter Moylan, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Medlan, just to name a few. If this club gets a lead, the pen should be able to close the game out with a win more times than not.
And get leads they shall, with this deep lineup. There is perennial All-Star catcher Brian McCann, rookie sensation last year Jason Heyward, rookie sensation this year Freddie Freeman, future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, Alex Gonzalez at short, and new acquisition Dan Uggla at second. If all cylinders click for this group, leads will be easy to come by. But health issues are always a concern for Jones. McCann has been vital year after year, but wear and tear at a demanding position could begin to show. Heyward may have a sophomore slump, although I think that is unlikely. And Uggla could struggle to adjust to his new team early on. Will these possible holdups be detrimental to their season?
Finally, there are the defending NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies. As if having Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamel weren't enough, they went out and reacquired Cliff Lee this off-season, which gives them maybe the best starting four in the majors. Each of these guys could stand to win 20 games this year, but the offense has to cooperate. Last year injuries and some setback play derailed the Phillies for parts of the season. They overcame these obstacles like true champions, though, and fought back to eventually have the best record in the baseball. Some misgivings still persist, however.
Chase Utley is still recovering from knee issues, and very recently highly-touted rookie right-fielder Dominic Brown suffered a fracture in his right hand that will most likely require surgery. How long that will put him out is still undetermined, but it throws a small kink in the cogs of trying to replace Jayson Werth. On the other hand, this could leave the door open for Ben Francisco or John Mayberry to step up. In other areas, Raul Ibanez had his lowest HR total since 2004, and could finally be on the decline at the tender age of 38. Ryan Howard's inability to hit the inside breaking ball has become more apparent over the years, and Jimmy Rollins is not only in a contract year, but still reeling from a injury-plagued 2010. Will these issues rise up to undermine the mighty Phillies empire?
Probably not. Philadelphia will still take the division as they are one of the best teams in baseball, and have proven over the past few years that they are ready to spend money in order to fix problem areas. The bullpen may be one facet where mid-season trades help the squad, but GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been incredibly adept at nabbing guys for the right price. The hesitations for the Braves and Marlins are still too large, and too many to compete with the Phils. If Philly stumbles, even in multiple areas, they will quickly get back up. If the other teams falter even in minors ways, it could spell the end of their playoff hopes. In 2011 the NL East is the Phillies' division to lose, and it doesn't look like they intend to do so any year soon.
Friday, March 4, 2011
2nd Annual Prediction Special - Part 2 of 6
Since we started off our 2nd Annual Prediction Special by discussing the defending World Champion Giants, let us now turn to the defending American League Champions, the Texas Rangers and the division they patrol. Long a domain of Los Angeles Angels superiority, the West is now looking more open as the Rangers, Angels and Athletics all look competitive. Who will win the wild West in 2011? Let's take a look and see.
The Texas Rangers won in 2010 with a formidable lineup and good pitching. The 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton stayed hot with the bat all the way up until his injury that sidelined him for the last month of the regular season. Despite that month off Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Vladimir Guerrero led the antlered Rangers on a dominating spree through the playoffs, running over both the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. By adding a certified ace stopper in Cliff Lee mid-season to the already solid rotation, and finishing off games with a dash of AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz, the Rangers were tough to beat. Can they do so again this year?
There are some big questions in Arlington as the worry is always whether both Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler can stay healthy for a full season. Vladdy is gone, but Adrian Beltre is now wearing the blue and red, and despite an early leg injury he suffered at home, he should be able to recover and contribute on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the biggest concern will be the loss of Lee. Even though he stumbled a bit in the World Series, Lee was an anchor to the rotation, and at times a unbeatable force. The Rangers offered him a ton of money, but he chose to fly to Philly instead. There is talk that Feliz could move to the rotation as some suspect he has front-line starter written all over him. While he got away with being a flame-thrower in the closer role, starters need more diversity in their pitches to get through the opposing lineup three times in a game. Should Feliz flounder in the rotation, it would put the Rangers in a tough bind with no true ace, and no star closer. This is still only a possibility as Feliz is just trying starting out this spring. Nothing is definite yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Neftali as a starter come April.
There are other teams to consider, of course. The Angels lost first-baseman Kendry Morales during the 2010 season, and things just seemed to spiral from there. The loss of the versatile Chone Figgins to Seattle left LA a little short on speed. Howie Kendrick keeps proving year after year that he is not the batting title contender he was touted to be. Brandon Wood has developed a nice glove at 3B, but has been abysmal at the plate and isn't majors material. The only ray of hope was the pitching staff, which really kept the team together. Even that wasn't all good news, as Scott Kazmir keeps descending in quality. All in all, it was a very forgettable 2010 for the Angels.
2011 should be little brighter for the Halos, at least. Jered Weaver has proven he's the ace of the staff and a strikeout machine. Ervin Santana had another great year, as it seems he does every even-numbered year. Dan Haren and Joel Piniero should also bolster the rotation and keep most games close for the Angels. The more paramount question is the lineup. The signing of Carl Crawford would have made this team much more well-rounded. However, Crawford went with more money in Boston, and LA turned around and traded for Vernon Wells who actually will make more dough than Crawford. Wait, what? Yeah, you read that correctly. So Wells will bring his 25 homers for $20 million to Angels Stadium, Morales should come back and be very productive again, and Torii Hunter will probably still be an all-around great ball player. But still something doesn't seem right about this club. The lack of impacting infielders is unsettling to me for some reason, and in the end it might make or break the Halos' chances.
Over in Oakland, things are looking fairly bright. Once again GM Billy Beane has put together a rotation of young studs, and might just keep a few of them around this time. Trevor Cahill had a breakout year with 18 wins and a fantastic 2.97 ERA. Everyone keeps saying how Brett Anderson has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Meanwhile, Gio Gonzalez looks to repeat his stellar 2010 campaign. Add to that Mr. Perfect Dallas Braden, and Brandon McCarthy rounding out the rotation, and this is a solid one through five. Rich Harden, Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes will bolster the bullpen on the way to closer Andrew Bailey. In short, this team is going to pitch like crazy.
It's the same ol' story in Oakland, though. Can the bats keep up? With Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus patrolling the outfield, Hideki Matsui in the DH spot, and a bunch of guys in the infield I have actually never heard of, this team is light in the run-producing department. Granted, Willingham has been underrated for some time and could breakout if given the chance. Matsui is always a solid RBI man. Beside Kevin Kouzmanoff, though, this infield is made up of too little experience, and overall isn't blazing with high quality. If they play good enough defense, however, they could help the A's turn into the 2011 version of last year's Padres.
The Seattle Mariners had a 2010 season that should be erased from memory. Outside of Felix Hernandez, no pitcher ended the season with even a .500 record, and King Felix himself only did one game better than that. He still deserved to win the Cy Young with his amazing numbers everywhere else. The pitching staff in 2011 looks to repeat those awful numbers. The only real bright spot for the M's is that they have some young talent coming through the ranks that might help this team in 2012. Dustin Ackley ranked fifth overall on MLB.com's prospect list. Right-hander Michael Pineda, and shortstop Nick Franklin also appeared in the top 38, and acquisition from the Cliff Lee deal, Justin Smoak could be a solid power-hitting 1B. Sadly, I don't see this team doing much this year except frustrating Hernandez again, so let's wrap up.
With the shortest division covered, it's time to predict who will make their way into the post-season. It would be easy to say Texas since they are the defending champs, have spent money to bring in talent, and could see Feliz and Brandon Webb help the rotation. But don't forget about those Angels who never are out of it for very long. Even the Athletics could be close behind this year. The only team I say has no shot of taking the West is Seattle, and I don't think I'll get much argument there.
So I'm going with a surprise pick in this division and I'm saying the A's will usurp the Rangers and Angels to take the AL West in 2011. The Rangers could be without Hamilton and Kinsler again for lengthy periods of the season, I'm convinced that Beltre will not perform as he did last year, and I think the pitching staff is too big of a question mark right now. In LA, I think the rotation is as strong as any team's. On the other hand, with aging players in the outfield, underachievers in the infield, not to mention LA's apparent inability to draw in top talent via trades or signings, I think the Angels will have two disappointing years in a row.
Which leaves the Oakland Athletics, my pick to win the American League West in 2011. The rotation is top notch and stands a good chance of getting even get better as the big three, Cahill, Gonzalez and Anderson are all still under 25. The starters and bullpen will not only keep the A's in games, but will outright force wins with sheer talent when the offense proves anemic. The offense won't remain a total crutch, and a mid-season trade could bring in a trading block veteran like an Aramis Ramirez or a Jose Reyes, and give this lineup more depth. Ohhhh, did I just say that the Mets and Cubs will be out of it by July and trade away a star player? I guess you have to keep reading to find out.
The Texas Rangers won in 2010 with a formidable lineup and good pitching. The 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton stayed hot with the bat all the way up until his injury that sidelined him for the last month of the regular season. Despite that month off Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Vladimir Guerrero led the antlered Rangers on a dominating spree through the playoffs, running over both the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. By adding a certified ace stopper in Cliff Lee mid-season to the already solid rotation, and finishing off games with a dash of AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz, the Rangers were tough to beat. Can they do so again this year?
There are some big questions in Arlington as the worry is always whether both Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler can stay healthy for a full season. Vladdy is gone, but Adrian Beltre is now wearing the blue and red, and despite an early leg injury he suffered at home, he should be able to recover and contribute on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the biggest concern will be the loss of Lee. Even though he stumbled a bit in the World Series, Lee was an anchor to the rotation, and at times a unbeatable force. The Rangers offered him a ton of money, but he chose to fly to Philly instead. There is talk that Feliz could move to the rotation as some suspect he has front-line starter written all over him. While he got away with being a flame-thrower in the closer role, starters need more diversity in their pitches to get through the opposing lineup three times in a game. Should Feliz flounder in the rotation, it would put the Rangers in a tough bind with no true ace, and no star closer. This is still only a possibility as Feliz is just trying starting out this spring. Nothing is definite yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Neftali as a starter come April.
There are other teams to consider, of course. The Angels lost first-baseman Kendry Morales during the 2010 season, and things just seemed to spiral from there. The loss of the versatile Chone Figgins to Seattle left LA a little short on speed. Howie Kendrick keeps proving year after year that he is not the batting title contender he was touted to be. Brandon Wood has developed a nice glove at 3B, but has been abysmal at the plate and isn't majors material. The only ray of hope was the pitching staff, which really kept the team together. Even that wasn't all good news, as Scott Kazmir keeps descending in quality. All in all, it was a very forgettable 2010 for the Angels.
2011 should be little brighter for the Halos, at least. Jered Weaver has proven he's the ace of the staff and a strikeout machine. Ervin Santana had another great year, as it seems he does every even-numbered year. Dan Haren and Joel Piniero should also bolster the rotation and keep most games close for the Angels. The more paramount question is the lineup. The signing of Carl Crawford would have made this team much more well-rounded. However, Crawford went with more money in Boston, and LA turned around and traded for Vernon Wells who actually will make more dough than Crawford. Wait, what? Yeah, you read that correctly. So Wells will bring his 25 homers for $20 million to Angels Stadium, Morales should come back and be very productive again, and Torii Hunter will probably still be an all-around great ball player. But still something doesn't seem right about this club. The lack of impacting infielders is unsettling to me for some reason, and in the end it might make or break the Halos' chances.
Over in Oakland, things are looking fairly bright. Once again GM Billy Beane has put together a rotation of young studs, and might just keep a few of them around this time. Trevor Cahill had a breakout year with 18 wins and a fantastic 2.97 ERA. Everyone keeps saying how Brett Anderson has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Meanwhile, Gio Gonzalez looks to repeat his stellar 2010 campaign. Add to that Mr. Perfect Dallas Braden, and Brandon McCarthy rounding out the rotation, and this is a solid one through five. Rich Harden, Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes will bolster the bullpen on the way to closer Andrew Bailey. In short, this team is going to pitch like crazy.
It's the same ol' story in Oakland, though. Can the bats keep up? With Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus patrolling the outfield, Hideki Matsui in the DH spot, and a bunch of guys in the infield I have actually never heard of, this team is light in the run-producing department. Granted, Willingham has been underrated for some time and could breakout if given the chance. Matsui is always a solid RBI man. Beside Kevin Kouzmanoff, though, this infield is made up of too little experience, and overall isn't blazing with high quality. If they play good enough defense, however, they could help the A's turn into the 2011 version of last year's Padres.
The Seattle Mariners had a 2010 season that should be erased from memory. Outside of Felix Hernandez, no pitcher ended the season with even a .500 record, and King Felix himself only did one game better than that. He still deserved to win the Cy Young with his amazing numbers everywhere else. The pitching staff in 2011 looks to repeat those awful numbers. The only real bright spot for the M's is that they have some young talent coming through the ranks that might help this team in 2012. Dustin Ackley ranked fifth overall on MLB.com's prospect list. Right-hander Michael Pineda, and shortstop Nick Franklin also appeared in the top 38, and acquisition from the Cliff Lee deal, Justin Smoak could be a solid power-hitting 1B. Sadly, I don't see this team doing much this year except frustrating Hernandez again, so let's wrap up.
With the shortest division covered, it's time to predict who will make their way into the post-season. It would be easy to say Texas since they are the defending champs, have spent money to bring in talent, and could see Feliz and Brandon Webb help the rotation. But don't forget about those Angels who never are out of it for very long. Even the Athletics could be close behind this year. The only team I say has no shot of taking the West is Seattle, and I don't think I'll get much argument there.
So I'm going with a surprise pick in this division and I'm saying the A's will usurp the Rangers and Angels to take the AL West in 2011. The Rangers could be without Hamilton and Kinsler again for lengthy periods of the season, I'm convinced that Beltre will not perform as he did last year, and I think the pitching staff is too big of a question mark right now. In LA, I think the rotation is as strong as any team's. On the other hand, with aging players in the outfield, underachievers in the infield, not to mention LA's apparent inability to draw in top talent via trades or signings, I think the Angels will have two disappointing years in a row.
Which leaves the Oakland Athletics, my pick to win the American League West in 2011. The rotation is top notch and stands a good chance of getting even get better as the big three, Cahill, Gonzalez and Anderson are all still under 25. The starters and bullpen will not only keep the A's in games, but will outright force wins with sheer talent when the offense proves anemic. The offense won't remain a total crutch, and a mid-season trade could bring in a trading block veteran like an Aramis Ramirez or a Jose Reyes, and give this lineup more depth. Ohhhh, did I just say that the Mets and Cubs will be out of it by July and trade away a star player? I guess you have to keep reading to find out.
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