Just a few days ago Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer signed a monstrous contract that will keep him in the Twin Cities for quite some time. Eight years to be exact. At least that's what the contract is aiming to do. The Twins wish to keep Mauer around for 8-years at the cost of $184 million dollars. Whether the Twins will be able to retain his services for the full eight years is something yet to be determined.
The Twins are widely considered to be a small to mid-market team. They do not have the financial graces of the New York or L.A. teams, but they manage to keep winning anyway. They are a perennial favorite to win, or at least compete in the American League Central. So then why would the Minnesota Twins decide to throw so much money at Joe Mauer now, when the team has succeeded in the recent past without such a lofty contract?
For one reason, the Twins have a new stadium to open in the 2010 season, which will bring in all sorts of new revenue, and make this new contract more affordable. For another reason, this season was the last year they had Joe Mauer under contract, and had the Twins gotten into a bidding war during the off-season with a team like the Yankees, they most certainly would have lost. But why eight years, and why such a high price tag?
Joe Mauer is a native son of Minnesota, and therefore one of the most beloved players in the game. For many Twins fans he represents a storybook rise to success. If the Twins hadn't been able to re-sign him, the morale blow would have been devastating. It would have shown conclusively that small market teams couldn't guard against waving money general managers from bigger cities taking away homegrown stars. So the Twins took a gamble. They knew it wasn't going to be cheap to keep Mauer, so they made him the priority and loosened the purse strings.
Joe Mauer is a fantastic talent and one of my favorite players in the game. However, I absolutely hate these types of contracts. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, professional athletes are overpaid. I agree they deserve to be rewarded handsomely for their tremendous efforts, but the contracts that they get today are ridiculous. But based on both his defensive and offensive prowess, Joe Mauer deserves to be paid just as much as other top performers in the game. He's a leader, and a clutch performer. But do the Twins really think that in 2018, when this new contract is up, that Joe Mauer's production will be worth $23 million a year?
When this new contract ends, Mauer will be 34 years of age. That is not so old in the baseball world. Many players have fantastic success at 34 years old, but most of them aren't catchers. The rigors of that particular position take a great toll on the body, and while many baseball minds have speculated that time at designated hitter, and possibly a move to first base could prolong Joe Mauer's career, there is no guarantee that either of those moves will work. And in the meantime, there is the huge risk that he will get hurt whilst playing the most demanding position in the game. Maybe Mauer can play all eight years at an extremely high level and win another MVP or two, who knows. But wouldn't it have been safer to sign him to a shorter contract, at maybe a higher price? It may have been, but they couldn't.
This is the frustrating part about baseball. Pretend you are a small market team. You take the time to draft well, develop a player, and see the fruits of your labor pay off when the guy makes it to the big leagues. You have control over him for a few years. Then free-agency hits, and the guy has the chance to make some money for his efforts, and deservedly so. But big money teams come in and start throwing money around, which causes you to compete, by throwing some of your money around. But the money you want to spend isn't good enough, so you have to up the amount, and the years, until you're stuck with a contract that doesn't make any sense, but at least you have your guy, right? But what if his knees go bad? What if he gets hit in the eye like poor Kirby Puckett? What if he gets in a car accident? Now your team is mortgaged to the hilt and you're screwed. It has happened before. Mo Vaughn made millions for horrendous play. Mike Lowell will make $12.5 million for riding the bench this year. And maybe the worse long-term deal ever signed, Mike Hampton made $121 million dollars between 2001-2008, when he posted a 56-52 record.
And it keeps happening! Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells. Each one has signed a contract of at least $126 million in the last three years, and it looks like none of them will live up to the money or years invested. Again, I'm not saying athletes shouldn't be compensated, but teams are being forced into bad circumstances, possibly impacting the team for a decade or more, all because a few teams want to outspend everyone. Agents have all the leverage when they start bidding wars between clubs, which forces higher and longer deals to be made, and baseball suffers.
Joe Mauer is a great player. But if he gets hurt (which I hope does not happen) and his production seriously wanes, then I'm going to end up hating him. I'll hate him because he'll be a drain on whatever team he's on, making $23 million a year, and not being worth it. I wish Mauer the best luck in the world that this doesn't happen. But it will happen, to some team, again and again, until the MLB realizes that some kind of salary cap is needed to make sure these things don't ruin ballclubs.
I know the counter argument; 'You're just jealous because you're team can't spend the money and win. Why wouldn't you try and get the best player on your team every year?' My team, the Mets, do try and compete monetarily, and fail miserably, and look at what it has done to the team. These contracts are great for the individual, and for the two or three teams that can afford to do it every year, but bad for the other 20-something teams that can't waste that kind of money. Plain and simple, these contracts are bad for baseball. Congratulations on your contract Joe Mauer. I can't help but like you just a little bit less now. Not that you care.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Saturday, March 27, 2010
New Coke
So what is the freakin' deal with Ron Washington? The Texas Rangers manager is considered to be one of the most stand-up guys in all of Major League Baseball, and greatly respected by his peers. Apparently though, Ron just up and decided one day during the 2009 season to do a little cocaine. Just once though, right Ron? This doesn't appear to make a whole lot of sense. But then neither does you being forced to pay for auto insurance, and then having the company drop you when you get in an accident. But I digress.
The reason Mr. Washington decided to ingest some cocaine one day in 2009 may never be quite clear, and to be fair, they are his reasons. Him admitting that his actions took place is necessary. The details of why, however, are not. Everyone does stupid things. Washington's stupid thing just happen to be on an extremely serious scale. The larger issue here is how the Texas Rangers decided to handle the situation.
Apparently, one day last year, Ron Washington failed a drug test. Immediately, Ron Washington offered his resignation, but this offer was turned down by team President Nolan Ryan, general manager John Daniels and other Rangers officials. Now I can only assume that the team decided to keep this quiet during the season for obvious reasons; that they didn't want this to become a distraction. However, team officials kept on keeping this secret after the season was over, and into the 2010 pre-season. Herein lies my problem with the Rangers. This shows that they had no intention of ever divulging this information to the public.
Maybe on some level the Texas organization had good intentions. If they could keep the secret buried, then Ron Washington reputation might not take a hit. But selfishness also plays a part in this, because by not admitting this event to anyone, they could avoid all the bad publicity that comes along with it. Additionally, by not revealing the information in a somewhat timely manner, such as the off-season, they proved that they were going to try and hide this information for as long as possible. Clearly, in this day in age with reporters tweeting every five minutes about the minutiae of every player and coach's life, the Rangers should have known this information was going to come out eventually. If the Rangers wanted to do the respectable thing, they should have let this information leak once the 2009 season was over, that way the outrage would have a chance to die down.
Instead, the Rangers are stuck. People threw up their collective hands once the news broke, and proclaimed Washington should be fired, and with good reason. 'Managers are supposed to be role-models. How can a manager gain the respect and cooperation of his players after this kind of incident? If I got caught doing cocaine at my job, I'd be fired on the spot!' These were just some of the arguments that made there way onto sports radio shows. So the natural thing for the Rangers to do, would've been to hand down some kind of punishment, or even potentially fire Washington. But if they weren't going to do it last year, after they had already forgiven the man and moved on, then they sure weren't going to do anything to him this year. Which makes the Texas Rangers now look like idiots.
True, they may have done a very nice thing for Ron Washington by allowing him to remain an employee after such an incident. 'Everyone deserves a second chance, right?' But now what if a player gets caught with cocaine or steroids this year, what will they do then? Well, they will probably have to follow MLB procedure and suspend that player, or possibly even release him, depending on the severity of the incident. Oh, the hypocrisy!
This is the problem with the Rangers tactics. They've dug themselves in a whole. By forgiving Ron Washington, and letting him remain in his position of power, with no punishment whatsoever, the Rangers have become the equivalent of the liberal softee would wants to release everyone from prison. Instead of standing tough, admitting there was a problem within their organization, and dealing with it themselves, they will now be used as evidence in any case of player or manager indiscretion. 'Well Ron Washington got away with doing cocaine last year, why am I being punished because I drove drunk? Ron Washington can do coke, but I can't do heroin?' Ya see? Of course, other teams will obviously not let it get to this level of compliance, but there is a precedent set for allowing bad behavior. And especially after everyone thought the steroid era was just starting to go away, this is the last thing the MLB needed.
The Texas Rangers were between a rock and a hard place. They didn't want to have to deal with the news during last season. And the team was just starting to improve, so they didn't want to screw that up by firing the manager that got them there, and start all over. But now they have to deal with the consequences of their actions. Public ridicule and outrage aren't going to do anything, but some kind of MLB sanction might. If Commissioner Bud Selig and his cronies really want to send a message that baseball is tough on drugs, and bad behavior, then they need to step in and hand down some kind of punishment. If they don't, this incident will remain the 800lbs gorilla in the room.
The reason Mr. Washington decided to ingest some cocaine one day in 2009 may never be quite clear, and to be fair, they are his reasons. Him admitting that his actions took place is necessary. The details of why, however, are not. Everyone does stupid things. Washington's stupid thing just happen to be on an extremely serious scale. The larger issue here is how the Texas Rangers decided to handle the situation.
Apparently, one day last year, Ron Washington failed a drug test. Immediately, Ron Washington offered his resignation, but this offer was turned down by team President Nolan Ryan, general manager John Daniels and other Rangers officials. Now I can only assume that the team decided to keep this quiet during the season for obvious reasons; that they didn't want this to become a distraction. However, team officials kept on keeping this secret after the season was over, and into the 2010 pre-season. Herein lies my problem with the Rangers. This shows that they had no intention of ever divulging this information to the public.
Maybe on some level the Texas organization had good intentions. If they could keep the secret buried, then Ron Washington reputation might not take a hit. But selfishness also plays a part in this, because by not admitting this event to anyone, they could avoid all the bad publicity that comes along with it. Additionally, by not revealing the information in a somewhat timely manner, such as the off-season, they proved that they were going to try and hide this information for as long as possible. Clearly, in this day in age with reporters tweeting every five minutes about the minutiae of every player and coach's life, the Rangers should have known this information was going to come out eventually. If the Rangers wanted to do the respectable thing, they should have let this information leak once the 2009 season was over, that way the outrage would have a chance to die down.
Instead, the Rangers are stuck. People threw up their collective hands once the news broke, and proclaimed Washington should be fired, and with good reason. 'Managers are supposed to be role-models. How can a manager gain the respect and cooperation of his players after this kind of incident? If I got caught doing cocaine at my job, I'd be fired on the spot!' These were just some of the arguments that made there way onto sports radio shows. So the natural thing for the Rangers to do, would've been to hand down some kind of punishment, or even potentially fire Washington. But if they weren't going to do it last year, after they had already forgiven the man and moved on, then they sure weren't going to do anything to him this year. Which makes the Texas Rangers now look like idiots.
True, they may have done a very nice thing for Ron Washington by allowing him to remain an employee after such an incident. 'Everyone deserves a second chance, right?' But now what if a player gets caught with cocaine or steroids this year, what will they do then? Well, they will probably have to follow MLB procedure and suspend that player, or possibly even release him, depending on the severity of the incident. Oh, the hypocrisy!
This is the problem with the Rangers tactics. They've dug themselves in a whole. By forgiving Ron Washington, and letting him remain in his position of power, with no punishment whatsoever, the Rangers have become the equivalent of the liberal softee would wants to release everyone from prison. Instead of standing tough, admitting there was a problem within their organization, and dealing with it themselves, they will now be used as evidence in any case of player or manager indiscretion. 'Well Ron Washington got away with doing cocaine last year, why am I being punished because I drove drunk? Ron Washington can do coke, but I can't do heroin?' Ya see? Of course, other teams will obviously not let it get to this level of compliance, but there is a precedent set for allowing bad behavior. And especially after everyone thought the steroid era was just starting to go away, this is the last thing the MLB needed.
The Texas Rangers were between a rock and a hard place. They didn't want to have to deal with the news during last season. And the team was just starting to improve, so they didn't want to screw that up by firing the manager that got them there, and start all over. But now they have to deal with the consequences of their actions. Public ridicule and outrage aren't going to do anything, but some kind of MLB sanction might. If Commissioner Bud Selig and his cronies really want to send a message that baseball is tough on drugs, and bad behavior, then they need to step in and hand down some kind of punishment. If they don't, this incident will remain the 800lbs gorilla in the room.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Prediction Special - Wild Card Edition
The divisions are done folks. If you missed any of the previous blogs, I'll do a quick rundown for you. My picks for division winners were: AL East - New York Yankees, AL Central - Chicago White Sox, AL West - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, NL East - Philadelphia Phillies, NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals, and finally the NL West - Colorado Rockies. There are a lot of teams not yet listed that have a great chance to make the playoffs in 2010, not as division champs, but as wild card winners. Because we've already talked about most of these teams in detail in the previous blogs, we'll be going over both the AL and NL Wild Card in one, compact, but dynamite edition. Are you ready? Here we go!
If the Boston Red Sox are not going to win the AL East, then they will certainly be involved in the AL Wild Card dicussion. This team has one of, if not the deepest rotation in either league. And if you can say one absolute thing about the team's off-season acquisitions, it's that those moves made the Sawks a better defensive ballclub going into '10. Will the better defense and a great pitching rotation be enough to hold off the Tampa Bay Rays?
As we've mentioned before, this may be a make or break year for the Rays. They have two major position players up for free-agency after this season in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, and may not be able to keep either one. This squad will certainly not return to its old feable ways if both Crawford and Pena leave, but those players will be tough to replace. That may give the Rays a little extra incentive to play hard in the finals weeks of the '10, and to try and clinch that Wild Card berth for themselves.
The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers will make that extremely difficult for both teams. Both have the pitching and hitting to win around 85 games, and as I mentioned in the AL Central post, I wouldn't be suprised to see either of these teams switch with Chicago and take the division, or at least be close enough to the action to compete for the AL Wild Card. And as I've said before, nobody else seems to think Detroit will be as good as I think they can be, so I'll concede the point for now and say the Twins have the better chance to come away with the last playoff spot. But can the Twins actually pull it off?
Don't forget about the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. Both teams have improved from last year, and if healthy, these clubs will not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but potentially take the AL West out from under the Halos. Can the young pitching of Texas handle another year of high pitch counts? Will Seattle's rotation fulfill it's potential, and can the M's hitting keep pace with the Rangers and Angels? This all adds up to what will most certainly be a very exciting American League Wild Card race.
But who will punch that last ticket to October baseball? Let's narrow it down some. I think Texas will edge out Seattle in offensive production and finish just below the Angels. The Twins certainly have some pop of their own, but the pitching seems weak to me. Conversely, the Rays have the young, talented pitching to compete with any opponent, but need certain players to step up with their bats. In the end though, I think the rotational depth, the dangerous 1-9 lineup, and the clutch defense of the Boston Red Sox will propel them into the playoffs via the AL Wild Card. This isn't much of a surprise pick, but if ever there was a year where Boston had to watch its back, and carefully, 2010 is it.
Now on to the National League where fewer teams have a legitimate shot at October fun. The AL is stronger offensively, but the NL has some fantastic pitching, and the teams with the best arms stand the best chance of an extended season. As mentioned in earlier prediction posts, the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants all have hopes to reach the playoffs. Each team boasts a solid rotation of pitchers. However, there has to be consistant, timely hitting to compliment good pitching. Unfortunately for the Reds, Marlins and Giants, that hitting may not be there. Out of these three clubs, the Marlins probably have the best offense, but too many times it seems Florida is an all or nothing team, blasting five homers, or strucking out twelve times, or both. And the terrible defense of this club will cost the team several games over the course of the year.
So that leaves us with four great contenders for the National League Wild Card. This is a make or break year for one of these teams as well. The Chicago Cubs will have several key elements hitting free-agency next year, and the guys they do have locked up long-term are not showing franchise-player capabilities. If winning doesn't come early and often this season, the Cubs will struggle to keep pace in their division and in the NL Wild Card race. But on paper, this team still looks great. It's just a matter if that will translate to wins or not.
The Milwaukee Brewers have improved their pitching staff, which should help them compete for the division, as well as the NL Wild Card. But Milwaukee also really needs some other bats besides Braun and Fielder to step up, if this team is going to make an honest run for the post-season. While they stand a better chance of contending in 2010 than the Reds, Marlins or Giants, the Brew Crew are probably the weakest legitimate threat to take the fourth playoff spot.
The Atlanta Braves might be a division winner, in any other division. Playing with the Phillies right now puts just about any team at a disadvantage. However, the Braves have the pitching to win. With a deep starting five of their own, the hurlers will keep the offense in games. If Chipper Jones has a resurgent year, and Nate McClouth, Martin Prado or Jason Heyward make some impact, then this team stands a chance to be extremely dangerous. But will all the pieces come together when it really counts?
Of course the Dodgers will have something to say about this whole playoff thing. Let's remember that they have won the NL West for the past two years, and I see them missing out on being NL West Champions again by an incredibly small margin, if they lose out at all. This could be the year that their young pitching makes a statement, and with a tremendous offensive lineup behind them, it shouldn't be too hard for this rotation to rack up some wins. But in the areas where LA is at risk, it is really at risk. Vicente Padilla can be great, but is way too erratic. And Manny Ramirez could either anchor this team in safe waters, or pull them into the depths of oblivion.
In the end though, this isn't a conversation about who could make it further in the playoffs, this is about who can grab that last spot into the playoffs. And I think the Los Angeles Dodgers have what it takes to take the National League Wild Card. They have the potential to take the division, so the NL Wild Card is definitely within reach. Even if the pitching fails to a degree, the power bats can win games by themselves, outpacing what the Braves and Cubs might do. And let's face it, the NL Wild Card race will not be nearly as logjammed as the American League. The Dodgers have a chance to stake their claim to the playoffs early, and with authority. Only time will tell if they can do it or not.
Well, that's it ladies and gents. I hope you've enjoyed the First Annual Prediction Special, and Wild Card Edition. Next time we'll be returning to our regularly scheduled broadcasting. Some topics I'm looking forward to discussing are Joe Mauer's gigantic new contract, Rock Washington's, oh I'm sorry, I mean Ron Washington's cocaine mishap, and what went wrong in Pittsburgh. Join us next time.
If the Boston Red Sox are not going to win the AL East, then they will certainly be involved in the AL Wild Card dicussion. This team has one of, if not the deepest rotation in either league. And if you can say one absolute thing about the team's off-season acquisitions, it's that those moves made the Sawks a better defensive ballclub going into '10. Will the better defense and a great pitching rotation be enough to hold off the Tampa Bay Rays?
As we've mentioned before, this may be a make or break year for the Rays. They have two major position players up for free-agency after this season in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, and may not be able to keep either one. This squad will certainly not return to its old feable ways if both Crawford and Pena leave, but those players will be tough to replace. That may give the Rays a little extra incentive to play hard in the finals weeks of the '10, and to try and clinch that Wild Card berth for themselves.
The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers will make that extremely difficult for both teams. Both have the pitching and hitting to win around 85 games, and as I mentioned in the AL Central post, I wouldn't be suprised to see either of these teams switch with Chicago and take the division, or at least be close enough to the action to compete for the AL Wild Card. And as I've said before, nobody else seems to think Detroit will be as good as I think they can be, so I'll concede the point for now and say the Twins have the better chance to come away with the last playoff spot. But can the Twins actually pull it off?
Don't forget about the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. Both teams have improved from last year, and if healthy, these clubs will not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but potentially take the AL West out from under the Halos. Can the young pitching of Texas handle another year of high pitch counts? Will Seattle's rotation fulfill it's potential, and can the M's hitting keep pace with the Rangers and Angels? This all adds up to what will most certainly be a very exciting American League Wild Card race.
But who will punch that last ticket to October baseball? Let's narrow it down some. I think Texas will edge out Seattle in offensive production and finish just below the Angels. The Twins certainly have some pop of their own, but the pitching seems weak to me. Conversely, the Rays have the young, talented pitching to compete with any opponent, but need certain players to step up with their bats. In the end though, I think the rotational depth, the dangerous 1-9 lineup, and the clutch defense of the Boston Red Sox will propel them into the playoffs via the AL Wild Card. This isn't much of a surprise pick, but if ever there was a year where Boston had to watch its back, and carefully, 2010 is it.
Now on to the National League where fewer teams have a legitimate shot at October fun. The AL is stronger offensively, but the NL has some fantastic pitching, and the teams with the best arms stand the best chance of an extended season. As mentioned in earlier prediction posts, the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants all have hopes to reach the playoffs. Each team boasts a solid rotation of pitchers. However, there has to be consistant, timely hitting to compliment good pitching. Unfortunately for the Reds, Marlins and Giants, that hitting may not be there. Out of these three clubs, the Marlins probably have the best offense, but too many times it seems Florida is an all or nothing team, blasting five homers, or strucking out twelve times, or both. And the terrible defense of this club will cost the team several games over the course of the year.
So that leaves us with four great contenders for the National League Wild Card. This is a make or break year for one of these teams as well. The Chicago Cubs will have several key elements hitting free-agency next year, and the guys they do have locked up long-term are not showing franchise-player capabilities. If winning doesn't come early and often this season, the Cubs will struggle to keep pace in their division and in the NL Wild Card race. But on paper, this team still looks great. It's just a matter if that will translate to wins or not.
The Milwaukee Brewers have improved their pitching staff, which should help them compete for the division, as well as the NL Wild Card. But Milwaukee also really needs some other bats besides Braun and Fielder to step up, if this team is going to make an honest run for the post-season. While they stand a better chance of contending in 2010 than the Reds, Marlins or Giants, the Brew Crew are probably the weakest legitimate threat to take the fourth playoff spot.
The Atlanta Braves might be a division winner, in any other division. Playing with the Phillies right now puts just about any team at a disadvantage. However, the Braves have the pitching to win. With a deep starting five of their own, the hurlers will keep the offense in games. If Chipper Jones has a resurgent year, and Nate McClouth, Martin Prado or Jason Heyward make some impact, then this team stands a chance to be extremely dangerous. But will all the pieces come together when it really counts?
Of course the Dodgers will have something to say about this whole playoff thing. Let's remember that they have won the NL West for the past two years, and I see them missing out on being NL West Champions again by an incredibly small margin, if they lose out at all. This could be the year that their young pitching makes a statement, and with a tremendous offensive lineup behind them, it shouldn't be too hard for this rotation to rack up some wins. But in the areas where LA is at risk, it is really at risk. Vicente Padilla can be great, but is way too erratic. And Manny Ramirez could either anchor this team in safe waters, or pull them into the depths of oblivion.
In the end though, this isn't a conversation about who could make it further in the playoffs, this is about who can grab that last spot into the playoffs. And I think the Los Angeles Dodgers have what it takes to take the National League Wild Card. They have the potential to take the division, so the NL Wild Card is definitely within reach. Even if the pitching fails to a degree, the power bats can win games by themselves, outpacing what the Braves and Cubs might do. And let's face it, the NL Wild Card race will not be nearly as logjammed as the American League. The Dodgers have a chance to stake their claim to the playoffs early, and with authority. Only time will tell if they can do it or not.
Well, that's it ladies and gents. I hope you've enjoyed the First Annual Prediction Special, and Wild Card Edition. Next time we'll be returning to our regularly scheduled broadcasting. Some topics I'm looking forward to discussing are Joe Mauer's gigantic new contract, Rock Washington's, oh I'm sorry, I mean Ron Washington's cocaine mishap, and what went wrong in Pittsburgh. Join us next time.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Prediction Special - Part 6 of 6
"At last we meet, for the first time, for the last time." It looks like Michael Young and Erick Aybar are getting to know each other a little better. "Not that there's anything wrong with that." Boom! One last division to discuss in our 2010 Prediction Special. In this edition we'll be targeting the American League West. It may be small, but it has a lot of punch. So let's get down to business.
In the past six seasons, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have won their division five times. With a history of doing just about everything right, from coaching, to pitching, to hitting, to baserunning, this team has been stacked for some time now, and has been the favorite to win the AL West for most of the decade. That, however, may be changing. Even though they had a spectacular 2009, despite a rash of injuries and a devastating loss with young Nick Adenhart, the Angels let a few key elements go. The front-office chose not to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, or John Lackey. But lest we forget, this team is superbly managed, both on the field and off. Additions Hideki Matsui, Scott Kazmir, Joel Pinerio, and Fernando Rodney are out to show their new bosses that they can dominate the West. Young Brandon Wood takes over third-base, but can his bat keep up with his glove? Can Kazmir and his revitalized slider regain the magic of a few years ago? For the first time in a few seasons, the Angels are not the juggernauts of the West. Who will be contending?
Who won't be, is the better question. The Texas Rangers finished runner-up in the division for the second straight year, and owner Nolan Ryan has already made a public decree that his club should win at least 92 games, and take the division in 2010. And he has good reason to think this team can live up to the hype. If Josh Hamilton is fully healthy all year, he will lead one of the best offensive clubs in all of baseball. Outfielder Nelson Cruz had a breakout year, and second-baseman Ian Kinsler just keeps proving that he is one of the premiere players in the game. Prospect Julio Borbon will take over centerfield from Marlon Byrd, and perennial stud Michael Young will continue to man third-base. The young pitching of Scott Feldman, Brandon McCarthy, and Derek Holland will welcome helping-hand, and potential ace Rich Harden to the rotation. Harden won't eat a lot of innings, but if fully healthy, he could be a stopper-type pitcher. This club is dangerous to everyone in the American League, but 92 may not be enough to take the division. And in case anyone missed it, manager Ron Washington's recent troubles with a positive cocaine test from last year won't make it any easier for this club to stay out of the limelight when things aren't going too well.
The Seattle Mariners will try and make things difficult for the Rangers and Angels whenever possible. After crawling out of the basement last year, the M's are a darling team to watch in 2010. With newly acquired pitcher Cliff Lee, and the re-signed Erik Bedard who is hopeful to come back from surgery around mid-season, the Mariners rotation could be great. Lee has been suspended for a start already though, and is dealing with some shoulder issues. Ace hurler Felix Hernandez will hold down the fort as best he can until the cavalry arrives. Pitching isn't the only area the Seattle GM worked on. New bats Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman all hope to add to the depth of Seattle's lineup. Ichiro Suzuki is maybe the best contact hitter in the game, and centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez is on the verge of having a banner year. If the pitching lives up to its capabilities, this team will be a definite player come September.
Unfortunately for the Oakland Athletics, these three other teams will just be too much to contend with. The A's have tons of young talent coming through their system, as they always do. But pound-for-pound, they won't be able to pitch or hit on par with the big dogs of the division. Eric Chavez's move to first-base may work out, Ben Sheets could have a fantastic year, and Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Jack Cust may all put up fine numbers. But making the playoffs is just not that realistic for this ballclub.
So who will take the division in the long run? Whoever succeeds, it will be a tough road. These clubs love to beat up on each other, and the division is almost certain to come down to the last few days of the season. But in the end, I think the depth and recent continued success of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, or whatever they want to be called nowadays, will lead them to repeat as American League West Champions in 2010. As with the AL Central, and the NL West, this division is hard to determine. Every team has some fantastic talent, and a definite right to say that this year is their time to shine. But the combined youthful and veteran talents of both the pitching staff and hitting lineup, under the gaze of Mike Scioscia, always seems to put the Halos just out of reach of the other teams. I think it will happen again in '10. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
Make sure and stay tuned to our final installment of our Prediction Special when we look at the Wild Card race in both leagues.
In the past six seasons, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have won their division five times. With a history of doing just about everything right, from coaching, to pitching, to hitting, to baserunning, this team has been stacked for some time now, and has been the favorite to win the AL West for most of the decade. That, however, may be changing. Even though they had a spectacular 2009, despite a rash of injuries and a devastating loss with young Nick Adenhart, the Angels let a few key elements go. The front-office chose not to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, or John Lackey. But lest we forget, this team is superbly managed, both on the field and off. Additions Hideki Matsui, Scott Kazmir, Joel Pinerio, and Fernando Rodney are out to show their new bosses that they can dominate the West. Young Brandon Wood takes over third-base, but can his bat keep up with his glove? Can Kazmir and his revitalized slider regain the magic of a few years ago? For the first time in a few seasons, the Angels are not the juggernauts of the West. Who will be contending?
Who won't be, is the better question. The Texas Rangers finished runner-up in the division for the second straight year, and owner Nolan Ryan has already made a public decree that his club should win at least 92 games, and take the division in 2010. And he has good reason to think this team can live up to the hype. If Josh Hamilton is fully healthy all year, he will lead one of the best offensive clubs in all of baseball. Outfielder Nelson Cruz had a breakout year, and second-baseman Ian Kinsler just keeps proving that he is one of the premiere players in the game. Prospect Julio Borbon will take over centerfield from Marlon Byrd, and perennial stud Michael Young will continue to man third-base. The young pitching of Scott Feldman, Brandon McCarthy, and Derek Holland will welcome helping-hand, and potential ace Rich Harden to the rotation. Harden won't eat a lot of innings, but if fully healthy, he could be a stopper-type pitcher. This club is dangerous to everyone in the American League, but 92 may not be enough to take the division. And in case anyone missed it, manager Ron Washington's recent troubles with a positive cocaine test from last year won't make it any easier for this club to stay out of the limelight when things aren't going too well.
The Seattle Mariners will try and make things difficult for the Rangers and Angels whenever possible. After crawling out of the basement last year, the M's are a darling team to watch in 2010. With newly acquired pitcher Cliff Lee, and the re-signed Erik Bedard who is hopeful to come back from surgery around mid-season, the Mariners rotation could be great. Lee has been suspended for a start already though, and is dealing with some shoulder issues. Ace hurler Felix Hernandez will hold down the fort as best he can until the cavalry arrives. Pitching isn't the only area the Seattle GM worked on. New bats Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman all hope to add to the depth of Seattle's lineup. Ichiro Suzuki is maybe the best contact hitter in the game, and centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez is on the verge of having a banner year. If the pitching lives up to its capabilities, this team will be a definite player come September.
Unfortunately for the Oakland Athletics, these three other teams will just be too much to contend with. The A's have tons of young talent coming through their system, as they always do. But pound-for-pound, they won't be able to pitch or hit on par with the big dogs of the division. Eric Chavez's move to first-base may work out, Ben Sheets could have a fantastic year, and Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Jack Cust may all put up fine numbers. But making the playoffs is just not that realistic for this ballclub.
So who will take the division in the long run? Whoever succeeds, it will be a tough road. These clubs love to beat up on each other, and the division is almost certain to come down to the last few days of the season. But in the end, I think the depth and recent continued success of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, or whatever they want to be called nowadays, will lead them to repeat as American League West Champions in 2010. As with the AL Central, and the NL West, this division is hard to determine. Every team has some fantastic talent, and a definite right to say that this year is their time to shine. But the combined youthful and veteran talents of both the pitching staff and hitting lineup, under the gaze of Mike Scioscia, always seems to put the Halos just out of reach of the other teams. I think it will happen again in '10. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
Make sure and stay tuned to our final installment of our Prediction Special when we look at the Wild Card race in both leagues.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Prediction Special - Part 5 of 6
Only two more divisions left to discuss here on our First Annual Prediction Special. So far we've covered the AL East and Central, and the NL West and East. Today we are going to finish up the National League by discussing the Central Division. It's the division in baseball with the most teams, which means it will have the most teams crying come October. But which teams will be weeping?
Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates finished last, again, with a 62-99 record. 161? If my memory serves me correctly, a game with the Cubs was postponed until very late in the season, but never played because the outcome didn't matter in terms of the post-season, so both teams declined to participate. Just the icing on the poo-filled cake that was the Pirates' 2009. Normally I wouldn't discuss a club with no chance of making the post-season in the Prediction Special, but the oddity mentioned above was neat, and it should be noted that because of 2009, the once storied Pittsburgh Pirates franchise garnered the dishonor of having the worst losing streak in all of professional sports, with 17 seasons of ineptitude. Perhaps we will discuss exactly why this has occurred in another post, but let's move on for now.
The Houston Astros didn't do anything quite as noteworthy as the Pirates in 2009, but just went ahead and had another bad year. Roy Oswalt, one of my favorite pitchers, struggled with injuries throughout the season, and couldn't provide the ace pitching the squad so desperately needed. The Astros are an extremely over-budget club, with not much to show for their spending, similar to the Mets and Tigers. Their investments this off-season were bandaids, and this club will struggle to finish with a winning record, let alone make the playoffs.
The Cinicinnati Reds finished up fourth in the NL Central in 2009, but are everyone's darling team in 2010. It is possible that Aaron Harang could have a bounceback year, but after two terrible seasons management must be upset with Harang's performance, especially considering he's making $12 million in '10. In addition the club has some solid, if expensive, pitching with Bronson Arroyo. The Reds need Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey to have breakout years, and Edinson Volquez is coming back from elbow surgery, which might help. Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman could come in and do what Dice-K did for the Red Sox a couple of years ago, too. And the Reds' lineup isn't too shabby either. With young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce quickly rising to stardom, veterans like Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips could create some legitimate offense for this club. However, expectations are probably being set too high, and it would be remarkable, but not impossible, if this club finished in the top two or three.
The Milwaukee Brewers ended 2009 just under .500. This club has good reason to hope that 2010 will see a return to the playoffs, though. Pitching was the problem, so management went out and bought Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to bolster the rotation and help young stud Yovanni Gallardo. The bullpen is solid as well with newcomer LaTroy Hawkins helping out all-time close leader Trevor Hoffman. And the Brew Crew can rake as well. Home-run helpers Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will have to carry the bulk of the load, but Corey Hart could bounce back and have another 20-20 season. Carlos Gomez coming over from the Twins could provide some needed speed. And Alcides Escobar is an exciting young talent that won the shortstop job away from J.J. Hardy. All in all, the Brewers may make a run toward the playoffs late, but a division title is sketchy.
The Chicago Cubs are cursed. But it's partially their own fault, and it starts with the general manager. Alfonso Soriano is going to make $19 million dollars every year until 2014, and he hit .241 last year with 20 HRs. An injury risk, Soriano is just one of the many bad contracts that the team has signed over the past several years. The recent addition of Carlos Silva was only good in that it got rid of team-cancer Milton Bradley. So far Fukudome has been a bust with a hefty pricetag, and Geovanny Soto and Mike Fontenot need to provide some production on a daily basis. There are some bright spots though. If Carlos Zambrano can get the run-support he needs, and stops with the tantrums, he could be great in 2010 and lead a solid group of pitching behind him. The lineup can produce offense, but consistency and health will be critical. Derek Lee had a resurgent year in 2009 and Aramis Ramirez should come back from a shortened '09 with a vengeance in '10. The Cubs will be players in the Central only because they spend enough, and they have three or four other teams to beat up on. But the playoffs might be out of reach again in 2010.
Thus, the process of elimination. No team mentioned yet has both the pitching and the hitting that it would take to unseat the reigning NL Central champs, the St. Louis Cardinals. Speaking frankly, this team is loaded. The Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright duo at the top of this rotation is maybe the best in baseball. Backed up by Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, the starting five could accumulate a lot of wins. Why? Because the offense has the potential to be ridiculously good, that's why. After coming over from the Oakland A's last year, Matt Holliday hit .353, with 13 HRs and 55 RBIs in just 63 games. Now, with a stupidly large contract, and hitting behind Albert Pujols, Holliday plans to rake in even more ponderous numbers this year. And I guess we should make mention that Albert Pujols is only the best hitter in the game. Add in some timely, and productive hitting from a supporting cast, and there aren't many teams who will be able to keep up with the Red Birds. Therefore, my pick to win the National League Central Division in 2010 is, the St. Louis Cardinals. Surprise.
Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates finished last, again, with a 62-99 record. 161? If my memory serves me correctly, a game with the Cubs was postponed until very late in the season, but never played because the outcome didn't matter in terms of the post-season, so both teams declined to participate. Just the icing on the poo-filled cake that was the Pirates' 2009. Normally I wouldn't discuss a club with no chance of making the post-season in the Prediction Special, but the oddity mentioned above was neat, and it should be noted that because of 2009, the once storied Pittsburgh Pirates franchise garnered the dishonor of having the worst losing streak in all of professional sports, with 17 seasons of ineptitude. Perhaps we will discuss exactly why this has occurred in another post, but let's move on for now.
The Houston Astros didn't do anything quite as noteworthy as the Pirates in 2009, but just went ahead and had another bad year. Roy Oswalt, one of my favorite pitchers, struggled with injuries throughout the season, and couldn't provide the ace pitching the squad so desperately needed. The Astros are an extremely over-budget club, with not much to show for their spending, similar to the Mets and Tigers. Their investments this off-season were bandaids, and this club will struggle to finish with a winning record, let alone make the playoffs.
The Cinicinnati Reds finished up fourth in the NL Central in 2009, but are everyone's darling team in 2010. It is possible that Aaron Harang could have a bounceback year, but after two terrible seasons management must be upset with Harang's performance, especially considering he's making $12 million in '10. In addition the club has some solid, if expensive, pitching with Bronson Arroyo. The Reds need Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey to have breakout years, and Edinson Volquez is coming back from elbow surgery, which might help. Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman could come in and do what Dice-K did for the Red Sox a couple of years ago, too. And the Reds' lineup isn't too shabby either. With young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce quickly rising to stardom, veterans like Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips could create some legitimate offense for this club. However, expectations are probably being set too high, and it would be remarkable, but not impossible, if this club finished in the top two or three.
The Milwaukee Brewers ended 2009 just under .500. This club has good reason to hope that 2010 will see a return to the playoffs, though. Pitching was the problem, so management went out and bought Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to bolster the rotation and help young stud Yovanni Gallardo. The bullpen is solid as well with newcomer LaTroy Hawkins helping out all-time close leader Trevor Hoffman. And the Brew Crew can rake as well. Home-run helpers Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will have to carry the bulk of the load, but Corey Hart could bounce back and have another 20-20 season. Carlos Gomez coming over from the Twins could provide some needed speed. And Alcides Escobar is an exciting young talent that won the shortstop job away from J.J. Hardy. All in all, the Brewers may make a run toward the playoffs late, but a division title is sketchy.
The Chicago Cubs are cursed. But it's partially their own fault, and it starts with the general manager. Alfonso Soriano is going to make $19 million dollars every year until 2014, and he hit .241 last year with 20 HRs. An injury risk, Soriano is just one of the many bad contracts that the team has signed over the past several years. The recent addition of Carlos Silva was only good in that it got rid of team-cancer Milton Bradley. So far Fukudome has been a bust with a hefty pricetag, and Geovanny Soto and Mike Fontenot need to provide some production on a daily basis. There are some bright spots though. If Carlos Zambrano can get the run-support he needs, and stops with the tantrums, he could be great in 2010 and lead a solid group of pitching behind him. The lineup can produce offense, but consistency and health will be critical. Derek Lee had a resurgent year in 2009 and Aramis Ramirez should come back from a shortened '09 with a vengeance in '10. The Cubs will be players in the Central only because they spend enough, and they have three or four other teams to beat up on. But the playoffs might be out of reach again in 2010.
Thus, the process of elimination. No team mentioned yet has both the pitching and the hitting that it would take to unseat the reigning NL Central champs, the St. Louis Cardinals. Speaking frankly, this team is loaded. The Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright duo at the top of this rotation is maybe the best in baseball. Backed up by Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, the starting five could accumulate a lot of wins. Why? Because the offense has the potential to be ridiculously good, that's why. After coming over from the Oakland A's last year, Matt Holliday hit .353, with 13 HRs and 55 RBIs in just 63 games. Now, with a stupidly large contract, and hitting behind Albert Pujols, Holliday plans to rake in even more ponderous numbers this year. And I guess we should make mention that Albert Pujols is only the best hitter in the game. Add in some timely, and productive hitting from a supporting cast, and there aren't many teams who will be able to keep up with the Red Birds. Therefore, my pick to win the National League Central Division in 2010 is, the St. Louis Cardinals. Surprise.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Prediction Special - Part 4 of 6
It has been a few days since my last post and I've learned a few things about my predictions thus far. One is that no one is picking the Detroit Tigers to have as good of a season as I think they will. The other is that analysts are saying the Red Sox are much better this year than they were last year, which I disagreed with in an earlier post. Does this mean I am an idiot? Well, not necessarily. But it does prove two wonderful things about baseball; 1: everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, and there are a lot of them out there, and 2: predicting is extremely hard. In fact, some experts say that predicting who is going to finish where and how is pretty much pointless, seeing as how no one knows who will have a breakout season or get hurt or what have you. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't have some fun taking a swing at it. So on that note, let us continue the First Annual Prediction Special.
This time we will hop back to the National League and discuss the East Division. Now just about everyone is saying the Philadelphia Phillies are going to repeat as division champs this year, and possibly go on to appear in a third consecutive World Series. This, unfortunately for me and my beloved Metropolitans, is quite likely. Does that mean it's inevitable? Of course not. So before we proclaim the Phillies the favorite, let's look at the teams that might challenge them.
First off, the Washington Nationals. On second thought, let's not start with the Nationals, because you and I, and the homeless lady in front of Marshall's all know that this isn't the Nationals year, regardless of what Stephen Strasburg does or doesn't do. It just ain't happenin'. So let us move on then to the Flordia Marlins.
The Marlins have a fine ball club, and since they are being forced to start spending the money they make through revenue-sharing by the league, they have made some wise investments. Last year they signed Hanley Ramirez, one of the top three hitters in the game, to a 6-year/$70 million contract, so he'll be a franchise player. And this past off-season, the Marlins also locked up their ace pitcher, Josh Johnson, with a 4-year/$39 million deal. They also have budding stars in their rotation, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year in Chris Coghlan, and potential dynamo Emilio Bonifacio, if he could ever learn how to take a pitch. All in all, this club is poised to win. But, they have been poised to win for a few years now, and can't ever seem to put all the pieces together. The pitching staff is still too young in some places, and the Marlins atrocious defense has always been an Achilles' heel. They will compete again this year, no doubt. But I don't see them making a late playoff run.
The New York Mets, on the flip side of things, are one of the worst managed teams in baseball. Please don't think I'm being biased because I have a severe disdain for GM Omar Minaya. Look up professional analysts' writings, and they will say the same thing about the Mets. The farm system has been both depleted through high profile trades, and left to rot in the hands of inadequate staffers. The front-office has overspent its way into ruin, on top of the fleecing the Wilpon family owners received via Bernie Madoff. And the team has been poorly managed on the field for the past four seasons. They will be without Carlos Beltran for nearly half the season, and now Jose Reyes may possibly miss significant time. Also, the pitching rotation, without Johan Santana, may be the worst in either league. If the Mets finish above fourth, I will be pleasantly surprised. Let's move on before I become sick.
The only serious competitor for the NL East crown would be the Atlanta Braves. The Bravos have two fantastic things going for them. First, they have an absolutely sick rotation full of talent. Jair Jurrjens is a bonafide stud, although he may have some shoulder issues at the start of the year. Up next is Derek Lowe, who isn't worth $15 million per year, but he's almost a definite for 200 plus innings, and a solid ERA and win total. Tim Hudson will return fully healthy from injury, and be an awesome three or four pitcher. Oh, and there's Tommy Hanson, who some think will be this year's Cy Young winner. That is one dynamite rotation, which stands a pretty good chance of having more wins than the five starters the Phillies will throw out. Oh, and the other thing the Braves have going for them, Jason Heyward. The young phenom, who is at the top of every prospect chart, will most likely see significant time this year. If he performs at his capable level, then Atlanta might have the offense to make a run at Philadelphia, and give Manager Bobby Cox (and possibly Chipper Jones??) a great retirement present.
Unfortunately for the Braves, though, it won't be enough. The sad fact is that I predict the Philadelphia Phillies will once again win the National League East. This is a slight at the club because I'm a bitter Mets fan. But in actuality, this is possibly the best team in the majors right now. They have pitching depth with newly acquired ace Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and youngster J.A. Happ. The team has a bunch of solid fielders, which often saves games for them. And the offense is the best in the NL. They can hit for average, or bash your brains out of the band-box they call a baseball park. There are two minor grievances I have with the club, however. Why trade away Cliff Lee for prospects, when a Halladay, Lee, Hamels rotation would have been an almost guaranteed World Series visit? And will Brad Lidge be the closer for the entire season? But even with those minor speed bumps, the Phillies will dominate their division once again, and stand a good chance of hosting games late in October. Damn you Shane Victorino.
This time we will hop back to the National League and discuss the East Division. Now just about everyone is saying the Philadelphia Phillies are going to repeat as division champs this year, and possibly go on to appear in a third consecutive World Series. This, unfortunately for me and my beloved Metropolitans, is quite likely. Does that mean it's inevitable? Of course not. So before we proclaim the Phillies the favorite, let's look at the teams that might challenge them.
First off, the Washington Nationals. On second thought, let's not start with the Nationals, because you and I, and the homeless lady in front of Marshall's all know that this isn't the Nationals year, regardless of what Stephen Strasburg does or doesn't do. It just ain't happenin'. So let us move on then to the Flordia Marlins.
The Marlins have a fine ball club, and since they are being forced to start spending the money they make through revenue-sharing by the league, they have made some wise investments. Last year they signed Hanley Ramirez, one of the top three hitters in the game, to a 6-year/$70 million contract, so he'll be a franchise player. And this past off-season, the Marlins also locked up their ace pitcher, Josh Johnson, with a 4-year/$39 million deal. They also have budding stars in their rotation, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year in Chris Coghlan, and potential dynamo Emilio Bonifacio, if he could ever learn how to take a pitch. All in all, this club is poised to win. But, they have been poised to win for a few years now, and can't ever seem to put all the pieces together. The pitching staff is still too young in some places, and the Marlins atrocious defense has always been an Achilles' heel. They will compete again this year, no doubt. But I don't see them making a late playoff run.
The New York Mets, on the flip side of things, are one of the worst managed teams in baseball. Please don't think I'm being biased because I have a severe disdain for GM Omar Minaya. Look up professional analysts' writings, and they will say the same thing about the Mets. The farm system has been both depleted through high profile trades, and left to rot in the hands of inadequate staffers. The front-office has overspent its way into ruin, on top of the fleecing the Wilpon family owners received via Bernie Madoff. And the team has been poorly managed on the field for the past four seasons. They will be without Carlos Beltran for nearly half the season, and now Jose Reyes may possibly miss significant time. Also, the pitching rotation, without Johan Santana, may be the worst in either league. If the Mets finish above fourth, I will be pleasantly surprised. Let's move on before I become sick.
The only serious competitor for the NL East crown would be the Atlanta Braves. The Bravos have two fantastic things going for them. First, they have an absolutely sick rotation full of talent. Jair Jurrjens is a bonafide stud, although he may have some shoulder issues at the start of the year. Up next is Derek Lowe, who isn't worth $15 million per year, but he's almost a definite for 200 plus innings, and a solid ERA and win total. Tim Hudson will return fully healthy from injury, and be an awesome three or four pitcher. Oh, and there's Tommy Hanson, who some think will be this year's Cy Young winner. That is one dynamite rotation, which stands a pretty good chance of having more wins than the five starters the Phillies will throw out. Oh, and the other thing the Braves have going for them, Jason Heyward. The young phenom, who is at the top of every prospect chart, will most likely see significant time this year. If he performs at his capable level, then Atlanta might have the offense to make a run at Philadelphia, and give Manager Bobby Cox (and possibly Chipper Jones??) a great retirement present.
Unfortunately for the Braves, though, it won't be enough. The sad fact is that I predict the Philadelphia Phillies will once again win the National League East. This is a slight at the club because I'm a bitter Mets fan. But in actuality, this is possibly the best team in the majors right now. They have pitching depth with newly acquired ace Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and youngster J.A. Happ. The team has a bunch of solid fielders, which often saves games for them. And the offense is the best in the NL. They can hit for average, or bash your brains out of the band-box they call a baseball park. There are two minor grievances I have with the club, however. Why trade away Cliff Lee for prospects, when a Halladay, Lee, Hamels rotation would have been an almost guaranteed World Series visit? And will Brad Lidge be the closer for the entire season? But even with those minor speed bumps, the Phillies will dominate their division once again, and stand a good chance of hosting games late in October. Damn you Shane Victorino.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Prediction Special - Part 3 of 6
So far in this First Annual Prediction Special we've discussed the American League East where we predicted the Yankees to take the division, and the National League West, were I picked the Rockies to finish first there. Now let's do the old switcharoo and turn our attention back to the American League, and in particular, the Central division.
Similar in some respects to the NL West, the AL Central has been anyone's game for a few years running. Last year the Minnesota Twins managed to win the Central by defeating the Detroit Tigers in a one game tie-breaker. The Tigers tumbled in the second half of the year to miss the playoffs. In 2008 though, the story was a little different. The Chicago White Sox were able to take the division that year, while the Tigers finishing last. The year before that, in 2007, the Cleveland Indians dominated though, followed by the Tigers, Twins, Sox, and finally the Kansas City Royals. I have yet to mention the Royals in the standings because they have either been fourth or fifth in the division at the season's end for the last six years, so they really haven't made much noise.
So what does this tell us about the upcoming season? Well, first off, neither the Royals nor Indians will be much of a factor in 2010. It's true that KC just had a Cy Young winner in ace Zach Grienke, but quite frankly they have too many holes offensively, and not enough talented pitching to compete on a day-to-day basis. I wish it were different, because I have a soft spot for KC, but it's not. The Indians were great just a few years ago, but Grady Sizemore has had health issues the past couple of years, Travis Hafner has consistently not produced like he did a few years ago, and the team has traded away the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, and Mark DeRosa. Also problematic was the development of guys like Josh Barfield, which never amounted to much, and Fausto Carmona has only gotten steadily worse. Both teams are in serious rebuilding stages.
So then let us turn to the more competitive teams in the division. The Minnesota Twins have been winning for a while now. They have finished in the top three of the Central every year since 2001, and seem to be around late every season to challenge for a playoff spot. Having said that, I don't think that will be the case this year. I can not say they are out of it entirely, because that would simply be foolish, but I have my doubts about the pitching side of things. Scott Baker seems like a good number 2 or 3 guy, but he is being asked to serve as an ace, which may be a little much for him. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are serviceable, but not studs. And Francisco Liriano needs to decide if he's going to be good or not. But they do have Mauer and Morneau to lead newcomer vets like Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, so maybe this team can bash its way into the playoffs.
The White Sox are incredibly intriguing because of their pitching, not in spite of it. Adding ace Jake Peavy last year was a great move, and he showed in the three games he pitched that he was healthy and ready to throw strikes. Follow Peavy up with Mark "I pitched a perfect game!" Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras, and you have a great starting rotation. J.J. Putz, if healthy, can help Bobby Jenks make the bullpen lights out. And the Sox are not short on bats either. A return to health for Carlos Quentin could be huge. Alex Rios might, with a supportive cast around him, show why he makes so much money. Paul Konerko can still rake a bit. Mark Teahen may have a great year. And everyone's favorite phenom, Gordon Beckham may show the world why he gets so much praise. The White Sox are stacked on both sides, and may just be the favorite in the AL Central.
The Detroit Tigers may have something to say about that, however. The Tigers pitching may be one notch down from Chicago's, but not by much. Ace Justin Verlander just signed a sweet deal, and will display why he deserves every penny. Young hurler Rick Porcello may not repeat his fantastic 14-9, 3.96 ERA rookie campaign, but you can make a safe bet that he'll have a solid, if not very good year. Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis need to pitch consistently and effectively, which isn't such a tall order, but it remains to be seen if they can actually do it. Jose Valverde should keep the bullpen locked down all season, while keeping the Tigers in close games. But the Tigers may have one advantage over the White Sox, in the bat department. This is primarily the same team that a couple of years ago was projected to score 1000 runs. While that team failed, it just goes to show how feared some of the Tigers hitters are when at a top performing level. Indeed, they have one of the best, if not the best hitter in all of baseball in Miguel Cabrera. Now that his off-the-field issues are supposedly behind him, it's actually scary to think how good of year he could have. If Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen remain healthy and somewhat productive this year, they should help catapult Cabrera into an MVP season. New acquisitions Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson might fit right in this clubhouse, and help out this lineup. I only worry that putting Jackson in the leadoff spot will be too much presure for a first year player.
As it stands, the Tigers and White Sox are my favorites to win the division, but I have to pick one. Who has the better pitching staff? Who can score more runs? Who's uniform do I think is nicer? Damnit, it's so hard to decide! My mind and my gut are not on the same page with this one, so I think I'll have to go with my gut. My pick for the American League Central division winner is...the Chicago White Sox.
I know that the Tigers are going to be great, but I just have a feeling that the veteran hitting and pitching of the Sox will overwhelm some of the younger talent from Detroit. I mean, Chicago has a chance to score a lot of runs, and with a stud rotation they look like they will be tough to beat on a daily basis. Now anything is possible and I wouldn't at all be surprised if either the Tigers or the Twins actaully take the division, but I am betting that Chicago will have a stellar year, making it tough for those other teams to catch up. So there it is. Three predictions down, and three to go. Don't forget about the Wild Cards, though. They will be showing up in my Prediction Special - Wild Card Edition. Will the Tigers or Twins be in it? You'll just have to wait and see.
Similar in some respects to the NL West, the AL Central has been anyone's game for a few years running. Last year the Minnesota Twins managed to win the Central by defeating the Detroit Tigers in a one game tie-breaker. The Tigers tumbled in the second half of the year to miss the playoffs. In 2008 though, the story was a little different. The Chicago White Sox were able to take the division that year, while the Tigers finishing last. The year before that, in 2007, the Cleveland Indians dominated though, followed by the Tigers, Twins, Sox, and finally the Kansas City Royals. I have yet to mention the Royals in the standings because they have either been fourth or fifth in the division at the season's end for the last six years, so they really haven't made much noise.
So what does this tell us about the upcoming season? Well, first off, neither the Royals nor Indians will be much of a factor in 2010. It's true that KC just had a Cy Young winner in ace Zach Grienke, but quite frankly they have too many holes offensively, and not enough talented pitching to compete on a day-to-day basis. I wish it were different, because I have a soft spot for KC, but it's not. The Indians were great just a few years ago, but Grady Sizemore has had health issues the past couple of years, Travis Hafner has consistently not produced like he did a few years ago, and the team has traded away the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, and Mark DeRosa. Also problematic was the development of guys like Josh Barfield, which never amounted to much, and Fausto Carmona has only gotten steadily worse. Both teams are in serious rebuilding stages.
So then let us turn to the more competitive teams in the division. The Minnesota Twins have been winning for a while now. They have finished in the top three of the Central every year since 2001, and seem to be around late every season to challenge for a playoff spot. Having said that, I don't think that will be the case this year. I can not say they are out of it entirely, because that would simply be foolish, but I have my doubts about the pitching side of things. Scott Baker seems like a good number 2 or 3 guy, but he is being asked to serve as an ace, which may be a little much for him. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are serviceable, but not studs. And Francisco Liriano needs to decide if he's going to be good or not. But they do have Mauer and Morneau to lead newcomer vets like Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, so maybe this team can bash its way into the playoffs.
The White Sox are incredibly intriguing because of their pitching, not in spite of it. Adding ace Jake Peavy last year was a great move, and he showed in the three games he pitched that he was healthy and ready to throw strikes. Follow Peavy up with Mark "I pitched a perfect game!" Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras, and you have a great starting rotation. J.J. Putz, if healthy, can help Bobby Jenks make the bullpen lights out. And the Sox are not short on bats either. A return to health for Carlos Quentin could be huge. Alex Rios might, with a supportive cast around him, show why he makes so much money. Paul Konerko can still rake a bit. Mark Teahen may have a great year. And everyone's favorite phenom, Gordon Beckham may show the world why he gets so much praise. The White Sox are stacked on both sides, and may just be the favorite in the AL Central.
The Detroit Tigers may have something to say about that, however. The Tigers pitching may be one notch down from Chicago's, but not by much. Ace Justin Verlander just signed a sweet deal, and will display why he deserves every penny. Young hurler Rick Porcello may not repeat his fantastic 14-9, 3.96 ERA rookie campaign, but you can make a safe bet that he'll have a solid, if not very good year. Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis need to pitch consistently and effectively, which isn't such a tall order, but it remains to be seen if they can actually do it. Jose Valverde should keep the bullpen locked down all season, while keeping the Tigers in close games. But the Tigers may have one advantage over the White Sox, in the bat department. This is primarily the same team that a couple of years ago was projected to score 1000 runs. While that team failed, it just goes to show how feared some of the Tigers hitters are when at a top performing level. Indeed, they have one of the best, if not the best hitter in all of baseball in Miguel Cabrera. Now that his off-the-field issues are supposedly behind him, it's actually scary to think how good of year he could have. If Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen remain healthy and somewhat productive this year, they should help catapult Cabrera into an MVP season. New acquisitions Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson might fit right in this clubhouse, and help out this lineup. I only worry that putting Jackson in the leadoff spot will be too much presure for a first year player.
As it stands, the Tigers and White Sox are my favorites to win the division, but I have to pick one. Who has the better pitching staff? Who can score more runs? Who's uniform do I think is nicer? Damnit, it's so hard to decide! My mind and my gut are not on the same page with this one, so I think I'll have to go with my gut. My pick for the American League Central division winner is...the Chicago White Sox.
I know that the Tigers are going to be great, but I just have a feeling that the veteran hitting and pitching of the Sox will overwhelm some of the younger talent from Detroit. I mean, Chicago has a chance to score a lot of runs, and with a stud rotation they look like they will be tough to beat on a daily basis. Now anything is possible and I wouldn't at all be surprised if either the Tigers or the Twins actaully take the division, but I am betting that Chicago will have a stellar year, making it tough for those other teams to catch up. So there it is. Three predictions down, and three to go. Don't forget about the Wild Cards, though. They will be showing up in my Prediction Special - Wild Card Edition. Will the Tigers or Twins be in it? You'll just have to wait and see.
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