It has come down to this, folks. We are in the final fews days of Spring Training, which means the 2011 baseball season is almost upon us. I have been extra busy the past two weeks, so I'm cutting it close getting these predictions in before the first meaningful games are played, but I still have time. So without further ado, let us begin the final divisional prediction for the 2011 calendar year.
We are obviously going to cover the American League Central for this post, as we've already dispensed some knowledge about the other five divisions. A solid argument can be made that the AL Central is the best division in baseball, as it continues to foster healthy rivalries between the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers. And while the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians have been on the skids for the past couple of years, both teams have young talent coming up through their systems. The Indians might still be a few years from competition, but the Royals are looking like they may have some say in the division sooner rather than later.
However, another valid discussion could also take place stating that this is probably the most disappointing division in baseball. Why do you ask? Well, for all the immense talent within the rank and file, the AL Central hasn't been making a good showing of late when it really matters; in the playoffs. To vent my frustration and to begin our prediction post, let us sound off with the reigning Central champs, the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are a wonderful organization that engenders competitive play, while stimulating a sense of sportsmanship, hard work and integrity. They are renown as being one of the better and most consistent clubs for fostering young, home-grown talent like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They have had lots of regular season success in the recent past, winning 6 division championships since 2002. The story changes when the post-season begins, as the Twins haven't won a playoff game in their past three appearances, and have repeatedly failed to do anything against the New York Yankees. Will 2011 be the year this turns around for Minnesota?
They have a lot of the right elements to make this possible. Their starters including the resigned Carl Pavano and Comeback Player of the Year Francisco Liriano, leading a very capable staff of Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn. One man will be sent to the bullpen, which should help eat some innings as Joe Nathan returns from Tommy John surgery, and Matt Capps readjusts to an 8th inning role. A return to health for young lefty Jose Mijares could be critical as well. The Twins are certainly not a team without pop, though.
Justin Morneau is a big bopper, but is still a little slow to recover from the concussion he suffered last year. The club is smart to make sure he's ready later rather than sooner as you never want to mess with a concussion injury. There's also the ever-youthful Jim Thome, who smacked a dubious 25 dingers last year and looks to improve on those numbers as the primary DH. Delmon Young showed off some power by smacking 21 bombs last year as well. Joe Mauer had a down year in power, but some says that was just him suffering from the new Target Field's dimensions. I personally believe that Mauer should not aim for power and instead keep to his outstanding high-average hitting. Fifteen homers is all anybody should expect. The team also has potential impact players in Danny Valencia and new import Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins look tough to beat again, but other teams in the division have upped the ante.
The Chicago White Sox were the 2005 World Series Champs, but have only one playoff win since. Chicago is trying to return to the post-season by rearming. They brought back beloved veterans Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski back, but they also signed The Big Donkey Adam Dunn to be the everyday DH, the position he was born to play. The Pale Sox have a trio of dynamite outfielders in Juan Pierre and his career-high 68 stolen bases in 2010; Alex Rios who combines speed, power and agility; and Carlos Quentin who when fully healthy can compete with the big mashers of the American League. The infield consists of two key young men in Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel who will man second and third respectively. Look for them to add some pop to this lineup.
Things aren't completely rosy for the South Siders as they lost closer Bobby Jenks this off-season, and traded away Daniel Hudson to Arizona late last year. Picking up the slack in the 'pen will be the extreme talents of Matt Thornton, Chris Sales and Sergio Santos. The rotation is strong, but not overbearing as Jake Peavy remains far from 100%, and Edwin Jackson is hit or miss. Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd should all remain reliable, though. In the end, will the big bats overcome some of the weaknesses of the pitching?
Possibly overtaking both teams is the Detroit Tigers. They made it all the way to the World Series in 2006, but haven't been back to the playoffs since. Don't sleep on the Tigers, though, as they have one of the most potent offensive players in the game today in Miguel Cabrera. He is still dealing with off-the-field issues, but when the man is right he is nearly unstoppable, so look for the Tigers organization to do everything within their power to help this young man sort out his personal demons.
Aiding Miguel on the diamond is new acquisition Victor Martinez who will play a little catcher, 1B and DH. The rest of the infield has veteran stability in Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen. The youth movement is in the outfield as Austin Jackson impressed everyone with his high-average lead-off ability, and Brandon Boesch raked at the beginning of the season, but sputtered late. Boesch will now take a seat behind Ryan Raburn in left, but look for Boesch either to take over for Raburn or Magglio Ordonez in right in the near future.
The rotation is even more of a strength than the lineup card. Justin Verlander leads the arms as the clear ace, but Max Scherzer is getting tons of hype as being heir-apparent, despite having a terrible spring. Backing up those two are converted reliever Phil Coke, constant work in progress Brad Penny, and Rick Porcello who's looking to replicate '09 rather than '10. The bullpen is also a major asset as Jose Valverde continues to be a quality closer, Joel Zumaya tries to stay healthy for all of 2011, and new signing Joaquin Benoit will compete as the set-up man. All in all, the Tigers look to be a major player in the proceedings of the AL Central in 2011.
As I mentioned at the top, the Royals and Indians don't have much hope for the post-season this year, so both squads are looking to future days instead. The Royals have one of the most lauded farm systems in either league as they have 6 of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. With a nice diversity of pitchers and position players, these young Royals could become a major factor in the Central in the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile the Indians are finding their own youthful path to the promised land. The only player to make the Top 50 for the Indians this year was Lonnie Chisenhall, the second-best third-baseman on the list. But there are plenty of other prospects in the system, including second-baseman Jason Kipnis and righty Alex White. Side them with Carlos Santana, and Brantley, two Indians who made the Top 50 last year, and this team is moving in the right direction.
For 2011 though, both the Royals and Indians will probably see what stud players they do have being traded away for even more prospects or draft picks. The Royals already parted ways with Zach Greinke in the off-season, and Cleveland could do the same with big name players like Fausto Carmona or Shin-Soo Choo this year, although that remains unlikely. Both teams signed veteran trade-bait like reliever Chad Durbin and outfielder Melky Cabrera, guys that will most likely fetch a nice price come late June when winning teams are searching for missing pieces. Look for both Kansas City and Cleveland to put up the good fight this year, but ultimately in losing/rebuilding efforts. Neither team is very far away from success, so look for these young players to make an impact, possibly even late this year.
Which means that the AL Central Champion in 2011 will be one of the first three teams we discussed. Do the Twins have enough bop in the bats to do some damage against the other two? Does Chicago have the right combination of power and pitching? Will the Tigers need PETA to come rescue them? All jokes aside, this is an extremely tight race, and one that should provide wonderfully played games for fans of the Central teams. The White Sox have some pitching questions that don't sit well with my inner voice. Meanwhile the Twins are always super competitive, but with Morneau and Nathan still recovering, I just don't know if I trust this team to stay hot, even though they always find a way.
In the end though, I think I have to put my money on the Detroit Tigers. I have heard nothing but excellence coming from the Scherzer story, and I believe Porcello can recapture some of his '09 glory. Verlander should get some Cy Young love this year as he is always a force, but never gets the recognition. Cabrera and Martinez will undoubtedly rake, and should have enough offensive help to lead the team to victory.
As with all my predictions, this is just a guess. It's appropriate to wrap up the divisional section of my Prediction Special with probably my least confident pick. I think the Tigers will win, but I definitely don't put them in the same class of divisional dominance as I would the Phillies or Red Sox. If the Tigers do make me a soothsayer, they will do it with an almost assuredly small margin of victory. Those close wins are what make the game so great, in my opinion, and I look to enjoy many of them this year.
Please stay tuned for the final Wild Card part of the Prediction Special and for the beginning of the season. Until next time.
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