Prospects On Deck

About two weeks ago several prospects lists came out. All of these lists disagree slightly because some are written by one sports writer, while others are a collaboration of opinions. So for the sake of argument, I am choosing to evaluate one particular list, and that is the MLB.com Top 50 Prospects. I'm using MLB.com's list because it gathers information from over 20 scouts throughout the league. While this is a excellent starting point to assess talent, it is by no means the perfect answer, and there will always be someone who says the list is total crap. But seeing as how none of us have the time to personally evaluate these players one by one, let's just use this one.

For starters, some of you may be asking what makes a player a prospect. To answer that, I will refer to a MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo who says, "To be eligible for the Top 50 list, a player must simply have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player-limit period." Pretty straight forward stuff. However, this gets a little hairy when you consider that some players have 'cups of coffee' in the majors for several years. Meaning, a player can have some major league experience, while still retaining rookie status for a lengthy amount of time. Take Delmon Young of the Minnesota Twins for instance. While he was with the Tampa Bay organization, he was #1 on several prospect lists for multiple years, mainly because he never crossing his rookie status. While this is rare, it does mean that not everyone on this list is a fresh-faced kid coming out of high school or college.

The big name that some of you may have heard about even before this list come out, is Bryce Harper. Harper was the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and is now the property of the Washington Nationals. The hype surrounding this kid is incredible. Harper appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was still in high school, for crying out loud! This Harper-mania is due to his amazing raw hitting talent at such a young age. He seems to use all areas of the field, and combines that with excellent, natural power. The 18-year-old supposedly has a cannon right arm, very good speed, and has had more comparisons to Hall of Fame players than Jason Heyward. So it came as a shock to some when Harper was ranked #3 on MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects list.

The honor of the top spot instead goes to Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. At just 19, he has the make-up of a Gold Glove centerfielder with a stellar bat and plus speed which helped him steal 56 bases in his first full season in the minors. He also has a tremendous work ethic according to scouts, which is a wonderful thing to see from a young player with so much natural talent. While power isn't yet a huge part of his game, his numbers surely will increase over time. For right now, though, he projects to be a top-of-the-order, base-stealing, run-scoring machine. Some suggest Trout could even be with the major league club as early as next year.

Sandwiched in between Trout at #1, and Harper at #3, is Jeremy Hellickson. The right-hander is the top pitching prospect in baseball and is partially why the Tampa Bay Rays were able to trade away Matt Garza. They believe Hellickson is talented enough to step into the back-end of the rotation immediately. He was a 4th round pick in the 2005 draft and has developed an outstanding curveball, change-up and cutter to compliment his mid-90s fastball. His strikeouts/9 is 9.8 over the course of 6 minor league seasons, and he looks to bring plenty of those strikeouts to the majors while limiting walks-allowed.

Don't worry, I'm not going to devote a paragraph to each rookie, but it's important to note the impressive talent baseball that will be producing in the majors in the next couple of years. Outstanding prospects like Trout, Harper and Hellickson can help transform a team from a cellar-dweller into a competitor. But not all prospects will pan out. Injuries, egos, and lack of development can plague these young men, and occasionally highly-touted phenoms never reach full potential. That is why small-market teams in need, like the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays, have to stock up on young talent, to ensure that success will eventually come.

Look no further than the Rays to show how a front-office should be run. For the past three years or so, the Rays have been one of, in not the best, most consistent team in baseball. With high-quality pitching and hitting, the Rays were able to reach the World Series in 2008, and nearly make it back in 2010. But because they are a small-market team, Tampa Bay has a hard time holding on to talent when free-agency comes calling, and home-grown guys like Carl Crawford end up fleeing to Boston. That is why it's so crucial to restock. Key trades produce draft picks, and the constant influx of young players that compete for positions means that the Rays don't just sit back waiting for one or two prospects to fully mature. In 2010 alone, the Rays have 4 of the 50 best prospects in baseball.

The Kansas City Royals have an incredible 6 players on the MLB.com's Top 50 list, including two players in the top 10. Mike Moustakas is ranked #7 on the list, and is the upcoming third-baseman for the organization. Moustakas has plus power, as he tied for the minor league homerun lead with 36, and drove in 124 runs. There is also speculation that Mike could turn into a reliable .300 hitter. His glove and range at third are still a question mark, although his arm is a big asset at the position. With former club top prospect Alex Gordon now being moved to the outfield, 3B is Mike's for the taking. Meanwhile, at the other corner of the infield is first-baseman Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer looks like a Royals version of the Dodger's James Loney, who hits around .300, while mixing some speed, power, and a good glove. In about a year or so, these young hitters look to be the cornerstone on which the Royals build a franchise.

The Royals don't just have hitters coming up through the minors, though. They also have lefties Mike Montgomery and John Lamb, who will soon make a splash in the rotation. This illustrates my point, that quantity is as much a key to success as quality. As a general manager, the Royals' Dayton Moore has realized that in order to rebuild, you need more than one brick. So he has taken a page out of the Rays' playbook and build his team up with loads of youngsters. Other teams are trying to try the same approach. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds have 3 prospects in the list. Some teams that aren't represented well on the list, like the Padres (1) and the Athletics (0) do also subscribe to this theory. However, there are times when young talent comes up at the same time, and the presence on this list is diminished. But teams with limited finances, like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, and Cleveland Indians, need to make more of an effort than having one guy on the prospect list.

There are several reason why a constant influx of young players is vital, especially for small-market clubs. Without fresh talent around, the veterans on the team can get lazy, knowing that their job is safe. Young, unproven talent is also very cheap, and under team control, alleviating the need to spend millions every offseason. There is a crucial aspect for the fans as well. No matter how good a player is, when he is bought during free-agency, there is a mercenary feeling toward that player from the fanbase. No matter what he says about the city, the fans, or the history of the club, a player still want to get paid. So for instance, when Adrian Beltre turned down offers from the Athletics and other clubs, only to go to the Rangers because they offered the most money, there is a sense that the paycheck outweighed all other motivations. I'm not trying to be cruel to Beltre, lots and lots of players do this, but it's a little disheartening for fans.

When a stud player comes up through the minors, however, fans tend to get a little more emotionally attached. He becomes 'our guy', a player that fans may have followed through the minors, up into the majors, and onward toward stardom. It's similar in a way to raising a child. When you see a player grow over time, there is an attachment there that free-agency doesn't quite match. So while drafting well, promoting from within, and extending young talent is important to a successful organization, it's also good to keep fans rooting for homegrown stars.

These prospect lists give us outsiders an insight into how a franchise evolves over time. Some clubs, like the Pirates, continue to struggle year after year, because they haven't changed the way things are done enough. Yet even the lowly Pirates have reason to hope as they had several dynamic rookies come up this year in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Young players coming in from the minors, or imported from Japan or South America are crucial to a team's success. If a club doesn't look to youth to invigorate a team every year, stagnation can settle in. And when things stagnate, you have to start throwing out the garbage.