Thursday, February 17, 2011

Deal or No Deal?

Well, it's official!! A deal has been reached that will keep the star player in uniform for a while now. Yes, it's been a hard fought journey, and many in the media said the two sides were going to part ways. But in the end solid negotiations, and a desire to further the future of the franchise made it possible for a deal to be struck and for the Toronto Blue Jays to keep Jose Bautista for five more years. Oh, you weren't anticipating a story about Mr. Bautista? You must have been thinking of Rickie Weeks then, because he just got a new deal, too. Not him either? Then who, for crying out loud?

Albert Pujols, you say! Oh, that old story. I said old, of course, because it feels as though this saga of 'will he or won't he' resign with the St. Louis Cardinals before Spring Training, has been going on for weeks and months now. Actually, it has. That's because the baseball world is enraptured by the possibility that the best player in baseball might be leaving his 10-year home for new digs, and a new uniform. The Albert Pujols story has been all over MLBNetwork, ESPN, Yahoo.com, endless baseball blogs, smaller sports networks, and even in those things people used to read, I think they are called newspapers.

Why is this story so important? Well, as much as you might think it's about money, and it certainly is, it's also about something more than that. Albert has been with the Cardinals ever since he signed as a draft pick back in 1999, he's never played for another team, and over the past few years he's become the best all-around player in the game of baseball. He has also helped the city of St. Louis recover from the Mark McGwire steroid story by being a good role-model and a (as far as anyone can tell) totally clean player. He also assisted in bringing a World Series Championship to the Gateway City in 2006, a feat the team has threatened to do again nearly every year simply because he's on the roster.

Albert has become something more than just a great ball player to the people of St. Louis. He has become an icon, much like the legendary Stan Musial who was honored in the White House this past Tuesday by receiving the Medal of Freedom from President Obama. To be mentioned in the same breath as Stan the Man, who played 22 awe-inspiring seasons for the Cardinals, is something special for Mr. Pujols. However, the fact is Pujols actually has a chance to surpass Stan's stature if he eventually resigns with the team and stays on for another 8 years or more. He would break a lot of Stan's records, and would solidify himself as the best player in the long history of one of the best sports franchises in America. But with such a hefty presence, Pujols also has the ability to negotiate a record-breaking contract, something it appears the St. Louis front-office isn't prepared to kneel to just yet. Which begs the question; Is Albert worth $30 million a year?

I'll save you the time and tell you that there is no correct answer here. In theory no player is worth that much, because paying him such a gargantuan fee would force the team to sacrifice quality in almost everything other aspect of the roster. However, it can be said that one historic-type player can change the attitude of a team, making mediocre players better, and can be a guiding tool for younger players coming up through the system. Say for instance that Albert teaches three younger players how to emulate his hitting over the course of his career. Would he be worth more then? Or should statistics alone drive a player's contract value?

These are all very tough questions, and it is easy to see why the St. Louis Cardinals haven't just signed away hundreds of millions of dollars on a whim. Real consideration is needed, but unfortunately Albert set a deadline that negotiations would end when he got to Spring Training, and it appears as though he intends to stick by that timetable. It's true that he and his agent can reopen talks at any time, and that the club will have a small window immediately after the 2011 season concludes to try and hash together a deal. As this deadline has come and gone, though, it's looking more likely that this stoppage was something more critical than just a pause to deal-making. It has the feel of something final, as though the 2011 season will be a macabre send off.

But who knows. Maybe Albert really does want to stay in St. Louis and he's just trying to earn a few extra dollars. Maybe he'll become a free-agent, but the market won't be there for him, and the Cardinals squad will have the upper hand in future discussions. Maybe a surprise team will come out of nowhere and spend a boatload just to gain an attraction, putting some fans in the seats. There are many possibilities right now. Not all of them play out well for the fans of St. Louis baseball, who have come to honor Pujols for what he is, a living, playing legend. It will be a very sad day there if he does leave. It will be a remarkable thing to see if he stays and finishes a Hall of Fame career with one team. It's just a matter of time, but that's one thing that seems to be slipping away right now for the team in St. Louis.

I was serious, of course, when I mentioned Jose Bautista earlier. He has reached a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. The 54-homerun slugger finalized a deal that will keep him in Toronto Blue for 5-years, at $64 million. In my humble opinion, this is a little much for a player who quite frankly, was never that good before last year. In actuality, he was a utility player when he came into camp in 2010, and he had never hit more than 16 homers in a season. So far this off-season I haven't heard from any analyst who thinks he'll hit 50 homers again. I believe he can hit around 30 or so. Which is still great and all, but the Jays are taking a huge risk that he'll be able to do that again and again for the next five years. When consistency has never been a big aspect of Bautista's game, that's a pretty big price tag to put on the guy. But as I've said, time will tell.

Rickie Weeks grabbed himself an extension, as well. The Milwaukee Brewers signed the oft-injured second-baseman to a 4-year, $38.5 million deal, with potential to become a 5-year, $50 million agreement, depending on playing time. If the Bautista deal was risky, this deal is down-right dangerous. While Weeks is an exciting player, and fits into Milwaukee's lineup very nicely, he's only played 160 games once, and that was his last year. Previous to that, he's played 100 games or more just twice (118, and 129), mostly due to the nagging injuries I mentioned. His 29 homeruns, 83 RBI, 32 doubles, 112 runs, and 175 hits were all career numbers in 2010, but you are never supposed to pay for a career year. It would have been smarter for the Brewers to agree to his 1-year arbitration asking price, and then see if he can repeat his production two years running. By signing him long-term after just one stellar campaign, they have essentially made a huge bet without looking at their hand.

If Weeks continues to get hurt over the course of the next four years, the Brewers will be out a lot of money. And with Weeks' history, it's not a long shot that he'll be hobbled, it's more a probability. I certainly don't wish it on Rickie, but every player gets dinged up throughout the season. Why take a risk on a guy who you know this happens to on a more frequent basis? This is bad general managing from my point of view.

This signing also has a similar effect for the Brewers, what the Matt Holliday signing did for the Cardinals. It shows that the team wants to win, but it creates a tough financial atmosphere to resign a power-hitting first-baseman. For the Brewers, that's Prince Fielder, who is entering the final year of his service with the club, and will become a free-agent unless signed to an extension. It has become abundantly clear that Prince expects to be paid in the nine figure range over the course of several years. So unless this splurge of money on Weeks is a sign of things to come from the front-office, the Brew Crew fans may have to start looking for a new 1B to root for. Maybe Pujols.....? Nah.

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