"San Francisco may well just have enough to take the division, but not much beyond that."That was from my Prediction Special last year for the NL West, and since I screwed that up so royally, let's go back to that division to start things off. It turns out the Giants did have enough to take the West, and had plenty left over to become National League and World Series Champions. They did so with the help of timely, clutch hitting by guys like Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, and mid-season acquisition Pat Burrell. Meanwhile Buster Posey, the eventual NL Rookie of the Year, burst onto the scene with a big bat, and veteran presence behind the plate after taking over for Bengie Molina, who was traded to the Texas Rangers.
More importantly, though, the Giants won on great pitching. Tim Lincecum may not have won a third-straight Cy Young award, but his performances in the playoffs outshined his competitors, as he beat both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Matt Cain was also phenomenal, as he did not let up a single earned run throughout the postseason. Jonathan Sanchez held his own against the competition, and Madison Bumgarner showed poise beyond his years as he pitched a 3-hit, eight-inning World Series Game 4. Add a dash of shutdown closer Brian Wilson, and the Giants pitched themselves to victory.
They will succeed in 2011 on the same basis, as pitching will keep them winning. The club will miss Renteria and Uribe's versatility, but they are also getting back Mark DeRosa who missed last year due to injury. Pablo Sandoval needs to reemerge and show he can play third-base everyday, and the plethora of outfielders have to find their roles. If a key trade in June/July can bring in a boom stick, then this club has a great chance of returning for a deep run into the playoffs. There are some other teams that might have something to say about that, however.
For one, the Colorado Rockies. They came on late last year like a bat out of hell, but fizzled down the stretch. Ace Ubaldo Jimenez couldn't retain his early dominance, Jorge Del La Rosa stumbled late in the season, and Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez couldn't mash this team to victory. The story hasn't changed much for the Rockies this off-season. The team picked up relievers two Matts, Belisle and Lindstrom. Ty Wigginton should be a good utility pickup, too. The Rockies didn't make an effort to bolster the rotation with an innings eater, though, or sign a big free-agent. Instead, they extended both Gonzalez and Tulo, and felt content to try again with the same basic team. Perhaps the result will be different this year. Perhaps not.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were a team I expected much more from. Joe Torre's last managing season was a washout as OF Matt Kemp didn't play to his potential, and in actuality got worse. Andre Ethier had a nagging finger injury that impacted his 2010, and Russell Martin had a sub-par, injury-riddled year and is now gone. SP Chad Billingsley showed signs of dominance, but eventually settled into his 2009 form of being a good number 2 or 3 pitcher. The brightest spot of the season had to be Clayton Kershaw emerging as the clear ace of the staff, with career bests in wins, IP, WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched) and strikeouts. As the 2011 season starts, the rotation with Kershaw in the lead, looks like this: Ted Lilly, who was resigned, Billingsley, and a recuperating Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jon Garland battling for the last two spots. This rotation is strong, but not overwhelming. The lineup should be better if Kemp and Either return to prominence, but there are infield question marks that still exist, and former Giant Juan Uribe isn't fixing all of them. The Dodgers I thought were showing up in 2010, don't look to reemerge in 2011.
The Diamondbacks were a sad case last year. My possible win total in 2010 of 85 games was waaaaay off. Bottom line is the team wasn't well trained, and swung and missed too much. The removal of Mark Reynolds who was traded to Baltimore should help that, but he is also a big bat to replace. Going into 2011, GM Kevin Towers has put together a new-look rotation of Zach Duke, Armando Gallaraga, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy and Joe Saunders, with Saunders looking like the veteran number 1, and Hudson appearing to have the most potential. In fact, after he was traded from the White Sox, Hudson went 7-1, with a 1.69 ERA and a 4.38 K/BB ratio for Arizona. These numbers might not fully translate into 2011 brilliance, but there is hope that a young ace is in the works here. Add to that the fact that the D-Backs still have tremendous young talent in Chris Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Kelly Johnson, and there is some tempered optimism in Phoenix.
The San Diego Padres were the surprise team of the year for just about everybody. I, like pretty much everyone else, predicted a bad year for the Padres, and stated they would all but finish dead last in the West. Shows how much I know. The big, young rotation of Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, and Clayton Richard performed much better than anticipated, and will all be around in 2011. Casey Kelly, the main acquisition in the Adrian Gonzalez trade will look to join them sometime late this year. The bullpen was another highlight as Joe Thatcher, Mike Adams, and Luke Gregerson paved the way for Heath Bell to close out a career-high 47 saves. Gonzalez had another All-Star year, but as he's now in Boston, the Padres no longer have a big offensive threat in the middle of the lineup. The Padres instead have improved their defense greatly with new guys Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, and Cameron Maybin up the middle. Brad Hawpe will most likely take over for Gonzalez at first. Another 90-win season is unlikely in 2011, as it seems the Padres will live and die with pitching and defense. Just don't be too surprised if the team is better than we think.
So it comes down to which team will actually put up or shut up, and win the division. Usually throughout the course of an off-season one team will make a splash with new players. This off-season, though, it seems just about every team in the NL West was content to either sit on their hands, or make minor moves. So by things not changing drastically, it only benefits the defending World Series Champions. While I think the Rockies can again make a strong showing, and could contend for a Wild Card, the Giants have to be considered the favorite to take the West with their dynamite pitching. The magic that came together for the Giants' 2010 Championship run may be hard to repeat in 2011. Should timely hitting, and a possible mid-season move or two come into play, however, the offense may again get hot late in the season. And as we all know, it doesn't matter how you start, it only matters how you finish.
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