The divisions are done folks. If you missed any of the previous blogs, I'll do a quick rundown for you. My picks for division winners were: AL East - New York Yankees, AL Central - Chicago White Sox, AL West - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, NL East - Philadelphia Phillies, NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals, and finally the NL West - Colorado Rockies. There are a lot of teams not yet listed that have a great chance to make the playoffs in 2010, not as division champs, but as wild card winners. Because we've already talked about most of these teams in detail in the previous blogs, we'll be going over both the AL and NL Wild Card in one, compact, but dynamite edition. Are you ready? Here we go!
If the Boston Red Sox are not going to win the AL East, then they will certainly be involved in the AL Wild Card dicussion. This team has one of, if not the deepest rotation in either league. And if you can say one absolute thing about the team's off-season acquisitions, it's that those moves made the Sawks a better defensive ballclub going into '10. Will the better defense and a great pitching rotation be enough to hold off the Tampa Bay Rays?
As we've mentioned before, this may be a make or break year for the Rays. They have two major position players up for free-agency after this season in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, and may not be able to keep either one. This squad will certainly not return to its old feable ways if both Crawford and Pena leave, but those players will be tough to replace. That may give the Rays a little extra incentive to play hard in the finals weeks of the '10, and to try and clinch that Wild Card berth for themselves.
The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers will make that extremely difficult for both teams. Both have the pitching and hitting to win around 85 games, and as I mentioned in the AL Central post, I wouldn't be suprised to see either of these teams switch with Chicago and take the division, or at least be close enough to the action to compete for the AL Wild Card. And as I've said before, nobody else seems to think Detroit will be as good as I think they can be, so I'll concede the point for now and say the Twins have the better chance to come away with the last playoff spot. But can the Twins actually pull it off?
Don't forget about the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. Both teams have improved from last year, and if healthy, these clubs will not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but potentially take the AL West out from under the Halos. Can the young pitching of Texas handle another year of high pitch counts? Will Seattle's rotation fulfill it's potential, and can the M's hitting keep pace with the Rangers and Angels? This all adds up to what will most certainly be a very exciting American League Wild Card race.
But who will punch that last ticket to October baseball? Let's narrow it down some. I think Texas will edge out Seattle in offensive production and finish just below the Angels. The Twins certainly have some pop of their own, but the pitching seems weak to me. Conversely, the Rays have the young, talented pitching to compete with any opponent, but need certain players to step up with their bats. In the end though, I think the rotational depth, the dangerous 1-9 lineup, and the clutch defense of the Boston Red Sox will propel them into the playoffs via the AL Wild Card. This isn't much of a surprise pick, but if ever there was a year where Boston had to watch its back, and carefully, 2010 is it.
Now on to the National League where fewer teams have a legitimate shot at October fun. The AL is stronger offensively, but the NL has some fantastic pitching, and the teams with the best arms stand the best chance of an extended season. As mentioned in earlier prediction posts, the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants all have hopes to reach the playoffs. Each team boasts a solid rotation of pitchers. However, there has to be consistant, timely hitting to compliment good pitching. Unfortunately for the Reds, Marlins and Giants, that hitting may not be there. Out of these three clubs, the Marlins probably have the best offense, but too many times it seems Florida is an all or nothing team, blasting five homers, or strucking out twelve times, or both. And the terrible defense of this club will cost the team several games over the course of the year.
So that leaves us with four great contenders for the National League Wild Card. This is a make or break year for one of these teams as well. The Chicago Cubs will have several key elements hitting free-agency next year, and the guys they do have locked up long-term are not showing franchise-player capabilities. If winning doesn't come early and often this season, the Cubs will struggle to keep pace in their division and in the NL Wild Card race. But on paper, this team still looks great. It's just a matter if that will translate to wins or not.
The Milwaukee Brewers have improved their pitching staff, which should help them compete for the division, as well as the NL Wild Card. But Milwaukee also really needs some other bats besides Braun and Fielder to step up, if this team is going to make an honest run for the post-season. While they stand a better chance of contending in 2010 than the Reds, Marlins or Giants, the Brew Crew are probably the weakest legitimate threat to take the fourth playoff spot.
The Atlanta Braves might be a division winner, in any other division. Playing with the Phillies right now puts just about any team at a disadvantage. However, the Braves have the pitching to win. With a deep starting five of their own, the hurlers will keep the offense in games. If Chipper Jones has a resurgent year, and Nate McClouth, Martin Prado or Jason Heyward make some impact, then this team stands a chance to be extremely dangerous. But will all the pieces come together when it really counts?
Of course the Dodgers will have something to say about this whole playoff thing. Let's remember that they have won the NL West for the past two years, and I see them missing out on being NL West Champions again by an incredibly small margin, if they lose out at all. This could be the year that their young pitching makes a statement, and with a tremendous offensive lineup behind them, it shouldn't be too hard for this rotation to rack up some wins. But in the areas where LA is at risk, it is really at risk. Vicente Padilla can be great, but is way too erratic. And Manny Ramirez could either anchor this team in safe waters, or pull them into the depths of oblivion.
In the end though, this isn't a conversation about who could make it further in the playoffs, this is about who can grab that last spot into the playoffs. And I think the Los Angeles Dodgers have what it takes to take the National League Wild Card. They have the potential to take the division, so the NL Wild Card is definitely within reach. Even if the pitching fails to a degree, the power bats can win games by themselves, outpacing what the Braves and Cubs might do. And let's face it, the NL Wild Card race will not be nearly as logjammed as the American League. The Dodgers have a chance to stake their claim to the playoffs early, and with authority. Only time will tell if they can do it or not.
Well, that's it ladies and gents. I hope you've enjoyed the First Annual Prediction Special, and Wild Card Edition. Next time we'll be returning to our regularly scheduled broadcasting. Some topics I'm looking forward to discussing are Joe Mauer's gigantic new contract, Rock Washington's, oh I'm sorry, I mean Ron Washington's cocaine mishap, and what went wrong in Pittsburgh. Join us next time.
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