Only two more divisions left to discuss here on our First Annual Prediction Special. So far we've covered the AL East and Central, and the NL West and East. Today we are going to finish up the National League by discussing the Central Division. It's the division in baseball with the most teams, which means it will have the most teams crying come October. But which teams will be weeping?
Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates finished last, again, with a 62-99 record. 161? If my memory serves me correctly, a game with the Cubs was postponed until very late in the season, but never played because the outcome didn't matter in terms of the post-season, so both teams declined to participate. Just the icing on the poo-filled cake that was the Pirates' 2009. Normally I wouldn't discuss a club with no chance of making the post-season in the Prediction Special, but the oddity mentioned above was neat, and it should be noted that because of 2009, the once storied Pittsburgh Pirates franchise garnered the dishonor of having the worst losing streak in all of professional sports, with 17 seasons of ineptitude. Perhaps we will discuss exactly why this has occurred in another post, but let's move on for now.
The Houston Astros didn't do anything quite as noteworthy as the Pirates in 2009, but just went ahead and had another bad year. Roy Oswalt, one of my favorite pitchers, struggled with injuries throughout the season, and couldn't provide the ace pitching the squad so desperately needed. The Astros are an extremely over-budget club, with not much to show for their spending, similar to the Mets and Tigers. Their investments this off-season were bandaids, and this club will struggle to finish with a winning record, let alone make the playoffs.
The Cinicinnati Reds finished up fourth in the NL Central in 2009, but are everyone's darling team in 2010. It is possible that Aaron Harang could have a bounceback year, but after two terrible seasons management must be upset with Harang's performance, especially considering he's making $12 million in '10. In addition the club has some solid, if expensive, pitching with Bronson Arroyo. The Reds need Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey to have breakout years, and Edinson Volquez is coming back from elbow surgery, which might help. Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman could come in and do what Dice-K did for the Red Sox a couple of years ago, too. And the Reds' lineup isn't too shabby either. With young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce quickly rising to stardom, veterans like Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips could create some legitimate offense for this club. However, expectations are probably being set too high, and it would be remarkable, but not impossible, if this club finished in the top two or three.
The Milwaukee Brewers ended 2009 just under .500. This club has good reason to hope that 2010 will see a return to the playoffs, though. Pitching was the problem, so management went out and bought Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to bolster the rotation and help young stud Yovanni Gallardo. The bullpen is solid as well with newcomer LaTroy Hawkins helping out all-time close leader Trevor Hoffman. And the Brew Crew can rake as well. Home-run helpers Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will have to carry the bulk of the load, but Corey Hart could bounce back and have another 20-20 season. Carlos Gomez coming over from the Twins could provide some needed speed. And Alcides Escobar is an exciting young talent that won the shortstop job away from J.J. Hardy. All in all, the Brewers may make a run toward the playoffs late, but a division title is sketchy.
The Chicago Cubs are cursed. But it's partially their own fault, and it starts with the general manager. Alfonso Soriano is going to make $19 million dollars every year until 2014, and he hit .241 last year with 20 HRs. An injury risk, Soriano is just one of the many bad contracts that the team has signed over the past several years. The recent addition of Carlos Silva was only good in that it got rid of team-cancer Milton Bradley. So far Fukudome has been a bust with a hefty pricetag, and Geovanny Soto and Mike Fontenot need to provide some production on a daily basis. There are some bright spots though. If Carlos Zambrano can get the run-support he needs, and stops with the tantrums, he could be great in 2010 and lead a solid group of pitching behind him. The lineup can produce offense, but consistency and health will be critical. Derek Lee had a resurgent year in 2009 and Aramis Ramirez should come back from a shortened '09 with a vengeance in '10. The Cubs will be players in the Central only because they spend enough, and they have three or four other teams to beat up on. But the playoffs might be out of reach again in 2010.
Thus, the process of elimination. No team mentioned yet has both the pitching and the hitting that it would take to unseat the reigning NL Central champs, the St. Louis Cardinals. Speaking frankly, this team is loaded. The Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright duo at the top of this rotation is maybe the best in baseball. Backed up by Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, the starting five could accumulate a lot of wins. Why? Because the offense has the potential to be ridiculously good, that's why. After coming over from the Oakland A's last year, Matt Holliday hit .353, with 13 HRs and 55 RBIs in just 63 games. Now, with a stupidly large contract, and hitting behind Albert Pujols, Holliday plans to rake in even more ponderous numbers this year. And I guess we should make mention that Albert Pujols is only the best hitter in the game. Add in some timely, and productive hitting from a supporting cast, and there aren't many teams who will be able to keep up with the Red Birds. Therefore, my pick to win the National League Central Division in 2010 is, the St. Louis Cardinals. Surprise.
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