So far in this First Annual Prediction Special we've discussed the American League East where we predicted the Yankees to take the division, and the National League West, were I picked the Rockies to finish first there. Now let's do the old switcharoo and turn our attention back to the American League, and in particular, the Central division.
Similar in some respects to the NL West, the AL Central has been anyone's game for a few years running. Last year the Minnesota Twins managed to win the Central by defeating the Detroit Tigers in a one game tie-breaker. The Tigers tumbled in the second half of the year to miss the playoffs. In 2008 though, the story was a little different. The Chicago White Sox were able to take the division that year, while the Tigers finishing last. The year before that, in 2007, the Cleveland Indians dominated though, followed by the Tigers, Twins, Sox, and finally the Kansas City Royals. I have yet to mention the Royals in the standings because they have either been fourth or fifth in the division at the season's end for the last six years, so they really haven't made much noise.
So what does this tell us about the upcoming season? Well, first off, neither the Royals nor Indians will be much of a factor in 2010. It's true that KC just had a Cy Young winner in ace Zach Grienke, but quite frankly they have too many holes offensively, and not enough talented pitching to compete on a day-to-day basis. I wish it were different, because I have a soft spot for KC, but it's not. The Indians were great just a few years ago, but Grady Sizemore has had health issues the past couple of years, Travis Hafner has consistently not produced like he did a few years ago, and the team has traded away the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, and Mark DeRosa. Also problematic was the development of guys like Josh Barfield, which never amounted to much, and Fausto Carmona has only gotten steadily worse. Both teams are in serious rebuilding stages.
So then let us turn to the more competitive teams in the division. The Minnesota Twins have been winning for a while now. They have finished in the top three of the Central every year since 2001, and seem to be around late every season to challenge for a playoff spot. Having said that, I don't think that will be the case this year. I can not say they are out of it entirely, because that would simply be foolish, but I have my doubts about the pitching side of things. Scott Baker seems like a good number 2 or 3 guy, but he is being asked to serve as an ace, which may be a little much for him. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are serviceable, but not studs. And Francisco Liriano needs to decide if he's going to be good or not. But they do have Mauer and Morneau to lead newcomer vets like Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, so maybe this team can bash its way into the playoffs.
The White Sox are incredibly intriguing because of their pitching, not in spite of it. Adding ace Jake Peavy last year was a great move, and he showed in the three games he pitched that he was healthy and ready to throw strikes. Follow Peavy up with Mark "I pitched a perfect game!" Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras, and you have a great starting rotation. J.J. Putz, if healthy, can help Bobby Jenks make the bullpen lights out. And the Sox are not short on bats either. A return to health for Carlos Quentin could be huge. Alex Rios might, with a supportive cast around him, show why he makes so much money. Paul Konerko can still rake a bit. Mark Teahen may have a great year. And everyone's favorite phenom, Gordon Beckham may show the world why he gets so much praise. The White Sox are stacked on both sides, and may just be the favorite in the AL Central.
The Detroit Tigers may have something to say about that, however. The Tigers pitching may be one notch down from Chicago's, but not by much. Ace Justin Verlander just signed a sweet deal, and will display why he deserves every penny. Young hurler Rick Porcello may not repeat his fantastic 14-9, 3.96 ERA rookie campaign, but you can make a safe bet that he'll have a solid, if not very good year. Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis need to pitch consistently and effectively, which isn't such a tall order, but it remains to be seen if they can actually do it. Jose Valverde should keep the bullpen locked down all season, while keeping the Tigers in close games. But the Tigers may have one advantage over the White Sox, in the bat department. This is primarily the same team that a couple of years ago was projected to score 1000 runs. While that team failed, it just goes to show how feared some of the Tigers hitters are when at a top performing level. Indeed, they have one of the best, if not the best hitter in all of baseball in Miguel Cabrera. Now that his off-the-field issues are supposedly behind him, it's actually scary to think how good of year he could have. If Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen remain healthy and somewhat productive this year, they should help catapult Cabrera into an MVP season. New acquisitions Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson might fit right in this clubhouse, and help out this lineup. I only worry that putting Jackson in the leadoff spot will be too much presure for a first year player.
As it stands, the Tigers and White Sox are my favorites to win the division, but I have to pick one. Who has the better pitching staff? Who can score more runs? Who's uniform do I think is nicer? Damnit, it's so hard to decide! My mind and my gut are not on the same page with this one, so I think I'll have to go with my gut. My pick for the American League Central division winner is...the Chicago White Sox.
I know that the Tigers are going to be great, but I just have a feeling that the veteran hitting and pitching of the Sox will overwhelm some of the younger talent from Detroit. I mean, Chicago has a chance to score a lot of runs, and with a stud rotation they look like they will be tough to beat on a daily basis. Now anything is possible and I wouldn't at all be surprised if either the Tigers or the Twins actaully take the division, but I am betting that Chicago will have a stellar year, making it tough for those other teams to catch up. So there it is. Three predictions down, and three to go. Don't forget about the Wild Cards, though. They will be showing up in my Prediction Special - Wild Card Edition. Will the Tigers or Twins be in it? You'll just have to wait and see.
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