Rotation Conflagration

Hello everyone and welcome to my last blog of the year. 2010 was the first full year of Pat's Baseball Blog, and I think it's been a good one. Also, I hope you all had a wonderful holiday season, whatever you celebrate, and that you continue to have good fortune into 2011. There are certainly some MLB teams that will see some good fortune come their way. Some teams will hit their way to the top, while others will pitch themselves to the playoffs. Who has the best rotation in the game though? Well that is something we are going to discuss right this very minute.

First it should be mentioned that there has been a definite draw of talent away from the American League and into the National League. In the past decade the NL has lured away the likes of Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, Barry Zito, Johan Santana, and Cliff Lee, twice. There are a few contributing factors to this. One huge point is that the National League does not have a DH or designated hitter. It means a National League pitcher has to face one less potent bat each time through the lineup, reducing potentially inflated statistical numbers. But it's not all about the stats. Some pitchers honestly prefer to hit as well, and only the NL allows them to do that. And an argument could be made that the NL is slowly taking over as the more dominant league in baseball, but that is a much larger argument for another time. The main point being though, is that most of the rotations we are about to discuss are not in the AL.

But lest we forget about the American League entirely, let's begin our discussion of rotations by focusing on perhaps the best one, the Boston Red Sox. Beantown is littered with talented pitchers at the moment. They have Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and John Lackey as a consistent starting four. I fear mentioning Daisuke Matsuzaka only because he's been hurt quite often over the past few years. Beckett too, has seen some injury time and if both should fall this year, then maybe this rotation won't be playoff bound, as it was doomed to miss out on October baseball this past year. However, if all cylinders are clicking, then this squad is extremely dangerous.

Lester is perhaps the best young lefty in the game, and at age 26, still has tons of time to improve and develop pitches. That's a scary thought, because his 2010 campaign saw him win a career-high 19 games while posting a 3.25 ERA and striking out 225 guys, exactly the same amount he struck out in 2009. Clay Buchholz may have even one-upped Lester by winning 17, but pitching a infinitesimally small 2.33. Clay is not the K-tallier that Lester is, but these two young studs(Clay is only 25) are the future of this organization. If Beckett stays healthy, and if Lackey bounces back from a somewhat Lack-luster (get it?!) year, then this rotation might just be the best in the game.

In addition, the Sox certainly have the offensive prowess to give any guy pitching a mental boost. And while this conversation is reserved mostly for rotations, it must be mentioned that Boston has accumulated one of the best bullpens around as well, making wins even easier to hold on to. But when all is said and done, the bullpen and the offense are going to help Boston win just as much, if not more than the rotation. So can they really be called dominant, and/or the best in the game? As of this moment, I don't think so.

Let's head over to the National League, where great rotations are falling off of trees. In St. Louis, the Cardinals have two legitimate aces in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter has bounced back from missing almost two full years ('07, '08) and regained his ace form. He won 17 games last year, with a 2.24 ERA and finished 2nd to Tim Lincecum in Cy Young voting. This year he added another 16 wins to his resume, and he isn't even the best pitcher on the team. That honor would probably have to go to Wainwright, who is tremendously overlooked in this game. 2009 looked like this for Adam; 19-8, 2.63 ERA, 233 IP, 212 K. 2010 was even better; 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 230 IP, 213 K, and he lowered his hits allowed, homeruns allowed, and walks. Wainwright is merely 28 as well, and has a very bright career ahead of him.

To add to this dynamic duo, the Cards also have Jaime Garcia, who at age 23 posted a fantastic rookie season, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA. Although he isn't a strikeout guy, and walked 3.5 batter per 9 innings, Garcia was able to stay away from the long ball that hurts many pitchers. He only gave up 9 homers all season. If Garcia can improve on his walks, and if he can prove he can handle the wear and tear of full MLB seasons, then he should had a crucial element to the Cardinals rotation for 2011 and going forward. Do Garcia, Wainwright and Carpenter make up the best rotation in baseball though? I can't say yes to that, as much as I would like to, for two reasons. Carpenter will be 36 next year and as he did miss two full years, has some injury risk involved. Meanwhile, Garcia is still slightly unproven as last year could have been a fluke, and he hasn't pitched 32 starts back to back yet. However, this team definitely has the potential to win and even dominate the National League Central.

Suddenly there is another competitive rotation in the NL Central, though. The Milwaukee Brewers, not a team known for pitching, has thrown their hat into the mix by picking up Shaun Marcum and Zach Greinke this off-season. They will help Yovani Gallardo transform the Brew Crew from a bash first team, to one that might pitch its way into October. Marcum has been touted for the past several years in Toronto, but has never fulled lived up to the hype. 2010 was sort of a break out year as he started over 30 games for the first time in his career, while putting up a 13-8 record, a 3.64 ERA and a great 3.84 K/BB ratio. Playing in Toronto didn't help his 24 homeruns allowed or his win total, so perhaps a change of scenery will make this work in progress a fully fledged star. Greinke, on the other hand, was obtained from the Kansas City Royals via trade on December 19th and gives the Brewers a second ace pitcher. He won the Cy Young in 2009, but struggled to repeat that performance in 2010 and ended up with a losing record and an ERA over four.

Greinke wants to win now though, and Kansas City is still a ways off from that, so as with Marcum, this change of scenery might be the best thing for Greinke, who can dominate batters with both his fastball and breaking pitches. His noted anxiety issues are in the past, but must remain in the back of any owner's mind, and Greinke needs to prove that 2009 was no accident. A new league should help that. Throw both Marcum and Greinke in back of Gallardo, who not only can control a game with his pitching, but can contribute with his bat, and this rotation is looking strong. Milwaukee's rotation has potentially the most swing room out of any team. They could all click together, and be outstanding, or they could stumble and force the offense to carry the team again. The good news is that this rotation isn't costly, so in the event that the Brewers lose power-hitting Prince Fielder after 2011, they can use the money they would have spent on him to add another guy or two to the rotation. If they don't win now, watch out for the Brewers in the very near future.

Then there are the mighty Philadelphia Phillies. By adding Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a rotation of four absolute aces, which will cost roughly $57 million in 2011. But the Phils should get their moneys worth. Lee is a pinpoint strike thrower, Roy Halladay, the defending NL Cy Young winner, never throws a straight ball for a batter to hit, Oswalt still has dominate stuff, and Hamels has a handcuffing changeup. When you add to this that the Phils have potentially the best offense in baseball behind these guys, it's hard to imagine any of these guys not winning at least 13-15 games. And in all actuality, we could see this squad have multiple 20-game winners on it. It's pretty much redundant for me to continue to mention the accolades of this rotation, because I've done in it in past blogs already, and it's been covered in the news ad nauseam.

The crucial aspect to consider for this discussion though; Is this the best rotation in baseball? As I have mentioned before, there is risk involved here because of age. Oswalt, Lee and Halladay are all 33 or over, and many position players are starting to age as well. This team, while most likely heading for another playoff journey, could trip up. The rotation itself, though, has a strong advantage over the other rotations mentioned simply in magnitude and in quality. So they rightfully are most people's pick for the best rotation in baseball. But there is one last rotation to consider, and you might know who they are.

The 2010 World Series Champions did not win with pitching alone, but had the pitching not held up as well as it did, then the Giants probably weren't even going to make the playoffs, let alone go as far as they did. That is due in large part to the expert play of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez. Lincecum, well, what else can I say about the guy. He's probably my favorite pitcher in the game right now, and he backs up his wacky attitude with good ol' fashioned ace stuff. He's won two Cy Young awards already, and was absolutely fantastic in the playoffs. He personifies 'ace'. Matt Cain is no second-banana though, as he is one of the more consistent pitchers in the league. He can strike guys out, and has improved his BB/9 ratio for five years straight. Cain hasn't had a breakout year statistically yet, but he's due. Sanchez is a bit of a loose cannon with his volatile personality, but he delivers on the mound. He won 13 games and had the lowest ERA of the three this past year. He strikes out hitters with almost the same regularity as Lincecum and many analysts say Sanchez has the best stuff on the team. He tends to walk guys, which keeps his numbers high sometimes, but he is definitely a stud.

Madison Bumgarner is the wild card however. He started 2010 in the rotation and faltered, so he spent some time in the minors before coming back up late. Over 18 starts, he posted a 3.00 ERA and ran a 3.31 K/BB ratio. These numbers are pretty good, but are too small of a sample to generate what he will do over a full year. But at a mere 20, the sky is the limit for this hard-throwing young man. And many reports say that he could become the best pitcher on this staff, which is saying something pretty remarkable. If Bumgarner, and the other three all have good seasons, then this may be the best rotation in baseball.

At a fraction of the price of the Phantastic Phour, the Giants appear to be a much better value right now. But in the end, this discussion must factor in opinion. Arguments can be made for or against all of these rotations being the best. The Phils and Giants are probably my favorites, but you may say otherwise. If you want to share what you think about my analysis, or wish to add some of your own, please feel free.

This post about pitching wouldn't be complete without mentioning the passing of a Hall of Fame legend. Bob Feller was a great pitcher from 1936 until 1956, winning 20-games or more 6 times and was elected to the All-Star team 8 times. A humble and kind-hearted mid-westerner, the career Cleveland Indian began his career at the tender age of 17 with hype that puts Stephen Strasburg-mania to shame. And the young man delivered. But of all his statistical feats over his illustrious career, there is one thing that stands above all else. At 22 and during the prime of his career, Bob Feller volunteered for military service on December 8th, 1941, one day after the attack on Pearl Harbor. He was the first of many baseball players to give up an easy life of fame and money to serve a greater cause. He proved himself not a hero in the sports sense, but a real hero whose sacrifices proved his mettle. Rest in peace Mr. Feller. You certainly deserve to.