It has been a few days since my last post and I've learned a few things about my predictions thus far. One is that no one is picking the Detroit Tigers to have as good of a season as I think they will. The other is that analysts are saying the Red Sox are much better this year than they were last year, which I disagreed with in an earlier post. Does this mean I am an idiot? Well, not necessarily. But it does prove two wonderful things about baseball; 1: everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, and there are a lot of them out there, and 2: predicting is extremely hard. In fact, some experts say that predicting who is going to finish where and how is pretty much pointless, seeing as how no one knows who will have a breakout season or get hurt or what have you. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't have some fun taking a swing at it. So on that note, let us continue the First Annual Prediction Special.
This time we will hop back to the National League and discuss the East Division. Now just about everyone is saying the Philadelphia Phillies are going to repeat as division champs this year, and possibly go on to appear in a third consecutive World Series. This, unfortunately for me and my beloved Metropolitans, is quite likely. Does that mean it's inevitable? Of course not. So before we proclaim the Phillies the favorite, let's look at the teams that might challenge them.
First off, the Washington Nationals. On second thought, let's not start with the Nationals, because you and I, and the homeless lady in front of Marshall's all know that this isn't the Nationals year, regardless of what Stephen Strasburg does or doesn't do. It just ain't happenin'. So let us move on then to the Flordia Marlins.
The Marlins have a fine ball club, and since they are being forced to start spending the money they make through revenue-sharing by the league, they have made some wise investments. Last year they signed Hanley Ramirez, one of the top three hitters in the game, to a 6-year/$70 million contract, so he'll be a franchise player. And this past off-season, the Marlins also locked up their ace pitcher, Josh Johnson, with a 4-year/$39 million deal. They also have budding stars in their rotation, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year in Chris Coghlan, and potential dynamo Emilio Bonifacio, if he could ever learn how to take a pitch. All in all, this club is poised to win. But, they have been poised to win for a few years now, and can't ever seem to put all the pieces together. The pitching staff is still too young in some places, and the Marlins atrocious defense has always been an Achilles' heel. They will compete again this year, no doubt. But I don't see them making a late playoff run.
The New York Mets, on the flip side of things, are one of the worst managed teams in baseball. Please don't think I'm being biased because I have a severe disdain for GM Omar Minaya. Look up professional analysts' writings, and they will say the same thing about the Mets. The farm system has been both depleted through high profile trades, and left to rot in the hands of inadequate staffers. The front-office has overspent its way into ruin, on top of the fleecing the Wilpon family owners received via Bernie Madoff. And the team has been poorly managed on the field for the past four seasons. They will be without Carlos Beltran for nearly half the season, and now Jose Reyes may possibly miss significant time. Also, the pitching rotation, without Johan Santana, may be the worst in either league. If the Mets finish above fourth, I will be pleasantly surprised. Let's move on before I become sick.
The only serious competitor for the NL East crown would be the Atlanta Braves. The Bravos have two fantastic things going for them. First, they have an absolutely sick rotation full of talent. Jair Jurrjens is a bonafide stud, although he may have some shoulder issues at the start of the year. Up next is Derek Lowe, who isn't worth $15 million per year, but he's almost a definite for 200 plus innings, and a solid ERA and win total. Tim Hudson will return fully healthy from injury, and be an awesome three or four pitcher. Oh, and there's Tommy Hanson, who some think will be this year's Cy Young winner. That is one dynamite rotation, which stands a pretty good chance of having more wins than the five starters the Phillies will throw out. Oh, and the other thing the Braves have going for them, Jason Heyward. The young phenom, who is at the top of every prospect chart, will most likely see significant time this year. If he performs at his capable level, then Atlanta might have the offense to make a run at Philadelphia, and give Manager Bobby Cox (and possibly Chipper Jones??) a great retirement present.
Unfortunately for the Braves, though, it won't be enough. The sad fact is that I predict the Philadelphia Phillies will once again win the National League East. This is a slight at the club because I'm a bitter Mets fan. But in actuality, this is possibly the best team in the majors right now. They have pitching depth with newly acquired ace Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and youngster J.A. Happ. The team has a bunch of solid fielders, which often saves games for them. And the offense is the best in the NL. They can hit for average, or bash your brains out of the band-box they call a baseball park. There are two minor grievances I have with the club, however. Why trade away Cliff Lee for prospects, when a Halladay, Lee, Hamels rotation would have been an almost guaranteed World Series visit? And will Brad Lidge be the closer for the entire season? But even with those minor speed bumps, the Phillies will dominate their division once again, and stand a good chance of hosting games late in October. Damn you Shane Victorino.
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