You've waited in blistering anticipation long enough. Here now is the second installment of the First Annual Prediction Special. Today we'll be discussing...wait for it, the National League West. Foooooled yooou. I bet you thought I was going to cover the whole American League first and then move on to the NL. Well, I decided I wasn't going to do that about five seconds before I began writing. And why should we do things the old, boring way? We're not. So let's talk some baseball.
Who will win the National League West this year, you ask? Well, pick a name out of a hat. You have about as much chance of getting it right as I will. This is due in large part to the utter lack of any dominating team in the NL West. Last year the Los Angeles Dodgers had the third best record in baseball, but lost in the League Championship Series to the Philadelphia Phillies. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies took the Wild Card. In 2008 the Dodgers also won the division, but only by being the least terrible team. To show you how bad the NL West teams played in '08, the Dodgers won with a measly 84-78 record, which was by far the worst winning-percentage of any division leader. But back in 2007 the Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks ruled, with both teams winning 90 games. The Dodgers? They finished fourth. The Rockies ended up going to the World Series that year. Who won the year before? The Padres. And the Rockies, they finished last.
There has been so much jostling around in this division over the past few years, you would think they were playing musical chairs at some steroid-induced Sweet 16 party. And the reason for all this commotion is somewhat complicated. The Dodgers for instance began getting good because of some quality pitching by Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, just as young, talented hitters like Andre Either and Matt Kemp started arriving on the scene. But now those pitchers are gone, and younger, less experienced hurlers like Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw are being asked to fill their places, and guide this team to victory. That is a tall order.
The Diamondbacks were great a couple of years ago, but were without ace Brandon Webb last year, and they will welcome him back with huge open arms this year. But besides a sidelined starting pitcher, they have had problems getting consistent production out of some of their younger fielders. Meanwhile Eric Brynes turned out to be a fairly disasterous signing for the team, and they haven't done much this off-season to remedy having too few bats. Can Arizona recapture the glory of 2007? Are Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton enough offense to make this team competitive for a full season? Two questions in a row isn't a good sign.
The Rockies seemed to always be in the mix because they had great hitters like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and now Troy Tulowitzki. But Holliday left last year, and Atkins appears to have been a mirage, plus he's gone to Baltimore. Meanwhile Helton isn't getting any younger. But the Rockies do have Jeff Francis coming back, and he'll help take pressure off of young ace Ubaldo Jimenez. Will some of the younger hitting keep pace?
The Giants, meanwhile, have not kept pace with the others teams. The arrival of "The Freak" Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain has solidified the pitching side of things, but reliable veteran hitting has remained elusive. Youngsters Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are out to prove that might be changing, however. Not to mention there might be another potential ace coming soon in Madison Bumgarner. Can San Francisco make the leap to the leader board this season, or are their star players still too young to control the division?
The San Diego Padres have been in a decline for the past few years, and they are in no position to compete right now for several reasons. Prospective players of a few years ago like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley haven't been setting the world on fire with their play. They lost ace Jake Peavy last year in a trade with the White Sox. Current ace Chris Young can never stay healthy enough to be the pitcher he should be. And the one true baseball star player on the team is first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez, but it is almost a guarantee that he will be traded in the next season or two in order to bring prospects back into the organization. None of these signs point to a stellar year in 2010.
With all that chaos, who can guess which team will put it all together this year. The Dodgers are probably the favorite in most peoples' minds because they've been to the League Championship for the past two years. But you can't count out the Rockies, who keep making great comeback runs in the latter part of the season. San Francisco may well just have enough to take the division, but not much beyond that. If Arizona rebounds from a very forgettable season, they have the reasonable potential to win 85 games. "You see what I have to work with, here?" This is a tough call, maybe the toughest in baseball. You have four out of five teams that can legitimately say this is their year. But I have to pick one. So what will I pick? Young pitching? Veteran, clutch hitting? Manny-Wood domination? Well, it is with some trepidation that I say, my choice to win the National League West in 2010 is...The Colorado Rockies.
I think they have enough pitching with Francis, Jimenez and Aaron Cook to hold down other teams in their division. The bullpen anchored by Huston Street and Manuel Corpas can close out games successfully. Helton and Tulo will help lead young hitters Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart to prominence. And the recent history of the Rockies making incredible comeback runs just goes to show the perseverance that makes good teams great. This is the year the Rockies start strong, stay strong, and finish strong. They will take the NL West division title, and maybe even a World Series appearance? Who knows. "You never can tell." Now if you know what movie that quote is from, you'll be my friend forever.
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